The Will of the People

Temporary Forum - Please keep it CIVIL and ON TOPIC regarding updates/ news / concerns on British living / travelling in the EU.
Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:12 pm

A useful document. I think it is worth noting that Clause 20 states

    We will continue to push the EU and Member States to secure these rights as soon as possible, which are in the mutual interest of all our citizens. Where it is in our control, the UK will also continue to preserve certain rights of UK nationals in the EU, for example by continuing to pay an uprated UK state pension to eligible UK nationals living in the EU.

BUT footnote 4 to this Clause adds:

    Subject to reciprocity.

In other words, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, continuation of State Pension uprating is conditional on the UK government doing a bilateral reciprocal deal with Greece. I think healthcare provided to UK State Pensioners through an S1 Form would be subject to the same condition. At least the UK government are actively pursuing such bilateral deals. The government is being slightly disingenuous, however. It is completely within their power to continue uprating of the UK State Pension, whether there is a bilateral agreement or not, BUT doing so could undermine their right to not uprate pensioners in other jurisdictions where there is no bilateral agreement and leave them open to a legal challenge. Obviously healthcare does depend on a bilateral agreement since it is delivered by the other country, i.e. in our case Greece, so the other country has to agree to do so.

Warwick

Ray
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Ray » Fri Dec 07, 2018 1:14 pm


Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Fri Dec 07, 2018 3:58 pm

Good to see that you still pop in from time to time, Ray, to see what the monkeys are up to and to throw in the odd banana to watch them scrap over it. I hope you are keeping well.

I have to admit that the article that you linked together with the one referenced by Brian on another thread did give me a good laugh. Both sides of the debate attempting to reach higher and higher levels of hyperbole in order to convince people that their side is correct only to drive them further into their already entrenched positions. All logic is lost in the maelstrom. To try to return to a more normal debate and restore some logic it is best to concentrate on one aspect and gather as many facts as possible. For example forget all other arguments and just consider trade.

Remainers think that free trade, no quotas, no tariffs, no customs checks and no regulatory barriers, is a good thing. Leavers think that free trade, no quotas, no tariffs, no customs checks and no regulatory barriers, is a good thing. They are in complete agreement. You couldn't slide a cigarette paper between them. Where they differ is that remainers worry that losing the free trade deal with the EU will have a worse economic impact than that which can be gained by doing free trade deals with other countries while leavers believe that the free trade deals we can do with other countries will be better than the free trade deal we have with the EU. Nobody actually knows. There is no proof either way. For both sides it is a matter of faith. There are some things that can be said with a high level of certainty, however:

    1 Changing our trading relationship with the EU, from free trade to trade with quotas, tariffs, customs checks and regulatory barriers, which is what happens under a no-deal Brexit, will have a negative impact on our trade with the EU. How big an impact nobody knows but it would be totally ludicrous to espouse the benefits of free trade and then to say that losing it would have no negative effect.
    2 Approximately 60 % of UK GDP derives from world trade, both exports and imports split roughly equally.
    3 A little over 40 % of that trade is with the EU.
    4 Thus 24 % of UK GDP is dependent on trade with the EU. Going from a completely free trade deal to a no-deal would not need to have a very big negative impact on EU trade to have a significant negative impact on UK GDP. These are not suppositions or projections. No complex economic models have been used only primary school mathematics. There is no project fear. These are real figures taken from the Office of National Statistics and the logic is that used by the leave camp to promote the value of leaving.
    5 Nobody knows how big the negative impact on GDP will be. Annual growth in UK GDP is under 2 %, the figure for 2017 was 1.7 %. If going from a free trade relationship to WTO rules reduced trade with the EU by as little as one tenth it would be enough to put the UK into recession. Even if the impact is less than one tenth, in the short term growth in GDP would still be lower than it would be by remaining.
    6 In the event of a no deal the impact on EU trade would start immediately on 29 March 2019. How long it would take to develop new free trade deals with other countries to offset the negative impact on EU trade I have no idea but I doubt if the most ardent Brexiteer would dare to claim that it will be instant. The longer it takes the greater the cumulative negative impact on GDP. Even a small negative impact on GDP can have quite a large cumulative negative impact if it continues for a number of years and the historical evidence suggests that 7 years is probably a minimum.

I have no idea if the leave camp will be proved right and that after a period of time, perhaps a decade, growth will be faster than if we stayed in the EU but neither do they. It is an assertion, an act of faith. The UK has just gone through an 8 year period of austerity. Wages have been declining in real terms. The fact that there has been a very recent return to real term increases in wages has not undone the cumulative effect of 8 years of shrinkage and it will take a long time for real term wages to just get back to where they were. Public services are under ever increasing pressure with ever dwindling resources to meet that pressure. If a no-deal Brexit imposed any further worsening of GDP growth for a period of years then public services will decline further.

A negative impact on GDP, however small would also make the UK less resilient to outside shocks. There are plenty of those out there hiding in the bushes. Will they emerge? I have no idea. I'm not Mystic Meg and I don't have a crystal ball but history does tell us that they do tend to emerge with great regularity and we are long overdue one.

Warwick

scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Fri Dec 07, 2018 4:20 pm

It is going round in circles, there are the remainers who like to state "their" "facts" and likewise leavers. For every expert analysis on one side there is another expert against, I guess it comes down to who you may believe, whether you even care. This decision is not about now or 10 years down the line this is forever which is a long time! Another "expert" opinion below:

https://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/ ... mitigated/
Men in suits will always make you pay.

Yorgo
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Yorgo » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:22 pm

Here is an absolute fact: The referendum produced a majority decision for the EXIT/LEAVE voters. The remainers expected to win and can not get over the fact they lost. They use language contemptuous of the reality of the situation, "PEOPLES VOTE", and can literally look you in the eye while telling you they don't want a second referendum but want a "PEOPLES VOTE". I suppose there is no way of reasoning with people who hold to this logic.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:25 pm

The problem is, Scooby, you can't have it both ways. If moving from completely free trade, which we have with the EU now, to trade with quotas, tariffs and customs checks, which is what a no-deal means, only has a 0.17% annual negative impact on GDP, according to open Europe, how can moving from having quotas, tariffs and customs checks, which we have with the rest of the world now, to having free trade give us the huge boost in GDP that leavers claim? Trade with the EU is only a bit less than half our trade so the trade with the rest of the world is only a bit more than half and its doubtful if we could do a free trade deal with every other country in the world. We also have free trade deals with some of them already through EU deals.

Surely the Open Europe analysis suggests that the boost in GDP by doing free trade deals with other countries would only be around 0.25 %? If there was a 0.17 % deficit for 13 years, as they suggest, then at the end of the 13 year period the cumulative deficit would be 2.2 %. The deficit with the EU would continue but you then offset it with a 0.25 % increase so the net increase would then be 0.08 %. It would then take 27 years to make up the 2.2 % loss, i.e. 30 years to get back to where we are now in relative terms. They suggest mitigating the loss by unilaterally removing all trade barriers, i.e. quotas, tariffs and customs checks. Why would any country do a free trade deal with the UK if they can freely export all their products to the UK without a deal?

Warwick

PS In my previous post they were not "my facts" they were simply figures on trade and GDP recorded by the ONS and freely published. They are the figures that people on all sides are using as their basic information. The basic figures are not in any doubt, only speculation about how they will change. My analysis was not done with a complex economic model. I simply multiplied 0.6 (i.e. 60 %) by 0.4 (i.e. 40 %) to get 0.24 (i.e. 24 %) I don't think that level of mathematics is very controversial.

Kamisiana
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kamisiana » Fri Dec 07, 2018 5:56 pm

Its even made the BBC now project fear bring out the dead.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-46480666

scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Fri Dec 07, 2018 6:57 pm

Kamisiana wrote:Its even made the BBC now project fear bring out the dead.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-46480666
exactly as I mentioned in a previous post kent council do not have a crystal ball, they proved that by investing millions of taxpayers money in Icelandic banks!
Men in suits will always make you pay.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Sat Dec 08, 2018 12:31 am

You are correct that they do not have a crystal ball, Scooby but they do have a memory. Their predictions are based on what actually happened in their area when Operation Stack was implemented on a number of occasions in recent history. It was implemented then for reasons not related to Brexit but it had the consequences they describe. They were real, not somebody's imagination. I sat and watched news reports of the disruption as it was occurring and listened to the phone calls from people affected by it.

The government contingency for a no-deal Brexit is pretty much Operation Stack again. The government have taken some measures that mean Operation Stack will not be quite as bad as it was before, on a day-by-day basis, but in the event of a no-deal Brexit it will be an ongoing scenario for an extremely prolonged period of time compared to the previous events, which typically lasted days. On the governments own analysis they have stockpiled medicines enough to last 6 weeks but they expect the disruption to last 6 months or longer. I think 6 months is a very conservative estimate. They have had over two years to put measures in place to mitigate the disruption but still expect it to be serious. What extra can they do in 6 months? If there was an easy fix that could be implemented quickly why haven't they done it?

It is also perhaps worth noting that most, although not all, of the so called "project fear" predictions were of the form: "If we leave the EU X will happen". We haven't left the EU yet so it is not really surprising if X has not yet happened. I am not saying all those predictions will occur. I have no idea any more than you do but some of them are credible on a logical basis. Some predictions were of the form: "The day after a leave vote Y will happen". Clearly they were just stupid. There is an enormous amount of data demonstrating that being elected to parliament and appointed to government is no guarantee that the person is not an idiot. Some may be "idiots savants" but they are still idiots, naming no names, fwor.

Warwick

scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:02 am

Kilkis wrote:You are correct that they do not have a crystal ball, Scooby but they do have a memory. Their predictions are based on what actually happened in their area when Operation Stack was implemented on a number of occasions in recent history. It was implemented then for reasons not related to Brexit but it had the consequences they describe. They were real, not somebody's imagination. I sat and watched news reports of the disruption as it was occurring and listened to the phone calls from people affected by it.

The government contingency for a no-deal Brexit is pretty much Operation Stack again. The government have taken some measures that mean Operation Stack will not be quite as bad as it was before, on a day-by-day basis, but in the event of a no-deal Brexit it will be an ongoing scenario for an extremely prolonged period of time compared to the previous events, which typically lasted days. On the governments own analysis they have stockpiled medicines enough to last 6 weeks but they expect the disruption to last 6 months or longer. I think 6 months is a very conservative estimate. They have had over two years to put measures in place to mitigate the disruption but still expect it to be serious. What extra can they do in 6 months? If there was an easy fix that could be implemented quickly why haven't they done it?

It is also perhaps worth noting that most, although not all, of the so called "project fear" predictions were of the form: "If we leave the EU X will happen". We haven't left the EU yet so it is not really surprising if X has not yet happened. I am not saying all those predictions will occur. I have no idea any more than you do but some of them are credible on a logical basis. Some predictions were of the form: "The day after a leave vote Y will happen". Clearly they were just stupid. There is an enormous amount of data demonstrating that being elected to parliament and appointed to government is no guarantee that the person is not an idiot. Some may be "idiots savants" but they are still idiots, naming no names, fwor.

Warwick
Point taken, however, if we do go to WTO then the government must prepare, as they say they are, for any disruptions and 6 months is a very short period of time (if it happens and if it is 6 months) given the magnitude of the decision made to break away from the stranglehold of the EU forever.
Men in suits will always make you pay.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:47 am

I think it is a bit of a stretch to say the government "is preparing" for a move to WTO rules. They have issued a lot of analysis papers explaining what the consequences would be but they don't seem to have done very much practically to avoid those consequences or mitigate against their effects. I'm not suggesting that they have done nothing but, in my opinion, it is nowhere near enough.

In particular they have talked a lot about using a system that allows customs checks to be made with no physical inspections at the border. The Chequers' proposal was completely dependent on such a system. At present no such system exists. Massive effort should have been deployed in designing and implementing such a system. It would facilitate all trade. We would have been world leaders in a technology that every country in the world would probably want to adopt. It would put the ball firmly in the EU's court. If they wanted to insist on maintaining old fashioned physical checks they would need to implement them and suffer the consequences.

Warwick

Keltz
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Keltz » Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:45 pm

Nothing has been agreed and for reason, there are some very rich and powerful people who cannot allow the UK to be part of the EU Fifth Money Laundering Directive was formally adopted on 19 June 2018 with a deadline of 10 January 2020 as the date by which EU Member States have to transpose the provisions into national law. Perhaps an indication of why Teresa May is so sure the Backstop will not be used at end of transition in 2020.

The city within a city that is The City of London banking would have its worldwide money laundering activities that go through the many U.K. Offshore interests exposed and reveal the extent of Russian money going through the U.K. not to mention embarrassing a fair few 'Honourable' members of the House of Commons and House of Lords. Would make the Panama papers exposure of David Cameron seem like chicken feed.

The mostly right wing UK media is becoming more extreme in now 'normalising' the likelihood of riots and chaos post Brexit in their headlines and that the BBC throughout each day 'reviews' on Breakfast TV and rolling news programs as if in support of this outcome. The UK is being prepared for chaos unless parliament will intervene of which there is no certainty and why Scotland will become independent and NI will be 'given up' to secure right wing control of England. If polls are correct, Wales is now for remain.

As for trade the US is standing by to pickup the jewel in the crown of U.K. NHS privatised healthcare now Westminster has privatised most of UK infrastructure such as telecoms, energy, water, postal service......

Any conjecture on where this leaves expats is anyone's guess as we, just like ordinary people living in the U.K. are of no concern in this high stakes power play except to provide a low-wage low-skill economy that improves profit margins for the richest 1%. The only certainty we have is that things will change by March 2019 if Brexit is allowed to go ahead.

Worth reading this explanation of the 'now accepted ' corruption of the Brexit campaign.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/172 ... ns-by-mps/

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Sat Dec 08, 2018 10:54 pm

Perhaps the real effect of Brexit is that it has exposed to more people how inadequate our politicians are - from all sides they don’t appear to have much of a clue.

At school, teachers keep order with a bit of a confidence trick: 30 children could easily overrun one adult, but normally they don’t, but rather they listen to the voice of authority - generally they trust their teacher to do the right thing. Ruling relies on a similar confidence trick - if enough people see that those who make laws know nothing, we are in a very bad place.

Jeffstclair
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Jeffstclair » Sat Dec 08, 2018 11:30 pm

The fact is our politicians just don't care ...about the people ..they just see it as a big game that they play to win , kudos , power , money , influence ...whatever ....

scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Sun Dec 09, 2018 12:51 pm

I thought Dominic Raab gave an excellent interview on Sophie Ridge this morning.
Men in suits will always make you pay.


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