The Will of the People

Temporary Forum - Please keep it CIVIL and ON TOPIC regarding updates/ news / concerns on British living / travelling in the EU.
scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:33 pm

Tim wrote:I still think TM could get her deal through at the 3rd (or 4th!) attempt but it would probably take a combination of:

a) The Attorney General 're-interpreting' his legal advice on getting out of the backstop
b) The EU refusing a short extension and threatening the UK with a (say) two year delay
c) Teresa May promising to resign on (say) March 30th

All those things are possible, but I don't see the DUP and the hardline members of the ERG coming on board otherwise and my guess is that she would need all those votes.
The EU would love a long extension.
A mess.

Tim

Me too Tim. I think it can get through but I believe the problem is the Labour and Lib Dem votes will stop it.
Men in suits will always make you pay.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Thu Mar 14, 2019 1:18 pm

I am not sure how the Attorney General can reinterpret his legal advice unless he is prepared to tell a direct lie to parliament? The backstop is there so that the EU can protect its border, something that it is determined to do. If it is time limited or the UK has a unilateral exit then it cannot protect its border. The meaning of backstop is something used to achieve an objective if all else fails. If a backstop is not absolute, until the objective has been achieved, then it is not a backstop. From the EU standpoint, exit from the backstop has to be event driven. When an effective border control mechanism with no physical border has been put in place then the UK can exit the backstop, until then it stays in place. Everything else is smoke and mirrors and everybody knows it.

I can see no evidence that the EU member states will collapse in a blubbering mess if no-deal becomes reality. It is wishful thinking by leave supporters based on a false narrative promoted by the leave side. I am not sure how it is possible to believe that the UK must be prepared to walk away without recognising that the EU must also be prepared to walk away. It is an arithmetic fact that, as a proportion of GDP, the UK stands to lose more than the EU. The EU knows that full well. Have you ever known a negotiation where the strongest side has capitulated? It is not like a game of poker where the other side does not know what cards you hold - they know exactly what the numbers are. The UK cannot bluff.

Warwick

scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:03 pm

Germany and France lose big in a no deal situation, stand firm and have some bottle. If we go to WTO and don't put anything in place for a border in Ireland, are the EU going to do it? They won't do anything to break the Good Friday agreement so they say, it's a red herring. Get on with it. There was a possibility of ex pats being kicked out of their adopted country, there was a possibility of ex pats losing health care benefits, there was a possibility of ex pats pensions being disrupted. All these possibilities by people overthinking and not thinking logically were clouding everything. It was always going to be OK. WTO will be OK, it is not an unknown, lots of countries are outside of the stagnating EU.
Men in suits will always make you pay.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:18 pm

Tonight the government defeated, I repeat - defeated, all the amendments, including one from Tony Ben attempting to give parliament a series of indicative votes on what it would support, albeit by only 2 votes. It also won, I repeat - won, I repeat again for the benefit of the incredulous - won, its own motion to ask the EU to delay Brexit until 30 June. Obviously this is subject to agreement from the EU. It intends to submit the existing proposed withdrawal agreement to parliament for the third time, I repeat - third time, next week, probably on Tuesday. The motion also noted that if the Withdrawal Agreement was not voted through next week the EU might insist on a longer extension in order for the government to consider alternative proposals. To me this appears to be a message to the ERG and the DUP that they had better support the Withdrawal Agreement next week or they might get something much worse.

Again a number of government ministers, including some cabinet ministers, voted against the government whip on some of the votes. So far only one junior minister, i.e. a PPS, has resigned. Despite winning, Theresa May clearly still does not have control of her own government.

Most of Labour abstained on an amendment proposing a second referendum, despite it being official Labour policy, probably because the amendment was proposed by one of The Independent Group.

Warwick

Tim
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Tim » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:27 pm

I don't understand the ins and outs of it, but my understanding is that because the final amendment was pulled, it's now within the gift of The Speaker as to whether the 3rd Meaningful Vote can be tabled. Of course Mr Bercow is supposed to be neutral ..... supposed to be ....

Tim

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:40 pm

scooby wrote:
Tim wrote:I still think TM could get her deal through at the 3rd (or 4th!) attempt but it would probably take a combination of:

a) The Attorney General 're-interpreting' his legal advice on getting out of the backstop
b) The EU refusing a short extension and threatening the UK with a (say) two year delay
c) Teresa May promising to resign on (say) March 30th

All those things are possible, but I don't see the DUP and the hardline members of the ERG coming on board otherwise and my guess is that she would need all those votes.
The EU would love a long extension.
A mess.

Tim

Me too Tim. I think it can get through but I believe the problem is the Labour and Lib Dem votes will stop it.


I think this is a good call too, inasmuch as anyone can predict what is going to happen in the fevered atmosphere of the HoC. Labour and the Lib Dem’s can’t block it - they don’t have the numbers and there are some of their MPs, like Kate Hoey and John Mann, who are likely to vote for it. That’s why nearly all TMay’s efforts have been on wooing the DUP and the ERG.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:51 pm

Tim wrote:I don't understand the ins and outs of it, but my understanding is that because the final amendment was pulled, it's now within the gift of The Speaker as to whether the 3rd Meaningful Vote can be tabled. Of course Mr Bercow is supposed to be neutral ..... supposed to be ....

Tim


For those not aware, the amendment that was "pulled" said that the PM could not simply table the same motion again. Certainly if that had been voted on and passed, which is unlikely, it would have been very difficult for her to table it again. Based on precedent, however, Bercow would be fully justified in not allowing her to table the same motion after it had been defeated twice by such massive margins. Everybody complains that the EU keeps asking countries to vote again on a Treaty if it doesn't get the right answer but apparently if it is the UK government doing the same thing it is OK?

Warwick

scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:51 pm

Kilkis wrote:Tonight the government defeated, I repeat - defeated, all the amendments, including one from Tony Ben attempting to give parliament a series of indicative votes on what it would support, albeit by only 2 votes. It also won, I repeat - won, I repeat again for the benefit of the incredulous - won, its own motion to ask the EU to delay Brexit until 30 June. Obviously this is subject to agreement from the EU. It intends to submit the existing proposed withdrawal agreement to parliament for the third time, I repeat - third time, next week, probably on Tuesday. The motion also noted that if the Withdrawal Agreement was not voted through next week the EU might insist on a longer extension in order for the government to consider alternative proposals. To me this appears to be a message to the ERG and the DUP that they had better support the Withdrawal Agreement next week or they might get something much worse.

Again a number of government ministers, including some cabinet ministers, voted against the government whip on some of the votes. So far only one junior minister, i.e. a PPS, has resigned. Despite winning, Theresa May clearly still does not have control of her own government.

Most of Labour abstained on an amendment proposing a second referendum, despite it being official Labour policy, probably because the amendment was proposed by one of The Independent Group.

Warwick
Nice to see Tony Benn make a comeback :x
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Keltz
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Keltz » Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:03 pm

Kilkis wrote:...amendments, including one from Tony Ben attempting to give parliament a series of indicative votes on what it would support, albeit by only 2 votes.


If only but alas it was his son Hilary Benn. I understand 6 Labour MPs voted in favour of the Conservatives that allowed the amendent to be defeated. Labours default position is to oppose in the chamber then abstain in the lobby. They have been doing that for as long as I can remember.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Fri Mar 15, 2019 12:31 am

Oooops. Showing my age. Yes it was Hilary Benn. He is quite influencial because he is chairman of the Brexit Select Committee.

An update on the voting being reported on Sky News tonight. Apparently 8 cabinet ministers voted against the government motion including the Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay, who wrapped up the debate for the government. How can you stand at the despatch box making the closing argument for the motion, finishing with the words, "I commend this motion to the house" and then go into the lobby and speak against it? Government is a farce.

I think that the amendment for a second referendum was the only motion that Labour abstained on, Keltz. I think they mostly voted on the other amendments. For example, in the final vote 614 MPs voted. If you exclude the speaker and the deputy speakers, who only vote in the case of a tied vote and the 7 Sinn Féin MPS, the maximum number is 639. That only leaves 25 abstentions if every MP was present.

Warwick

Kamisiana
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kamisiana » Fri Mar 15, 2019 9:48 am

EU say no extension, tick tock, WTO the only way to go :D

scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Fri Mar 15, 2019 10:10 am

Kamisiana wrote:EU say no extension, tick tock, WTO the only way to go :D
Because the threat of no deal is still there they ain’t gonna say no, mind you, we could always take it off the table like some want.
Men in suits will always make you pay.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:22 am

Kamisiana wrote:EU say no extension, tick tock, WTO the only way to go :D


Which bit of the EU, Kamisiana? The EU is built up of several institutions. As far as I am aware Verhofstadt has said no extension but I am not sure that is very meaningful. Verhofstadt is Brexit coordinator in the EU parliament but I don't think the EU parliament has any say whatsoever in whether an extension is granted or not. Has someone else said no?

The decision whether to grant an extension lies with the member states and so will be decided by the Council, which is made up of the heads of state of the member states. For this issue the person to pay attention to is Donald Tusk, who is president of the Council and he has said that: "He will appeal to EU leaders "to be open to a long extension" of the Brexit deadline, if the UK needs to rethink its strategy and get consensus." The last part of his statement is code for "moving closer to staying in the EU". Obviously the leaders of the member states may not agree with him but he does carry a lot of weight. If May manages to get her deal through at the Nth meaningful vote, where N is a number less than infinity, I think they would also be open to a short technical extension, which is what she is proposing. I don't think they will grant a short extension unless the deal is agreed in parliament.

Most of the noises coming from individual member states are sympathetic to granting an extension, at least to some extent, but they are not a universal approval. For example Italy wants to know what exactly is the purpose. More worryingly there are a very large number of member states that the media seem to ignore. What are their opinions? The decision has to be unanimous.

Warwick

PS For clarity, Scooby, I didn't suggest that no-deal should be taken off the table. I simply think that no-deal does not have the negotiating leverage you think it does. It is the inevitable outcome unless parliament agrees to do something. Parliament cannot take it off the table simply by voting to take it off the table. Parliament has to vote for something, e.g. a deal, any deal, or to amend the EU Withdrawal Act or to revoke Article 50. I am not sure amending the EU Withdrawal Act is a real option? There is no point in simply removing the date unless the EU has agreed to an extension, although it would need to be amended if the EU did grant an extension. It could be amended so that withdrawal was conditional on achieving a deal but what then happens when parliament cannot agree a deal?

Keltz
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Keltz » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:42 am

There has been a lack of clarity on the viability of WTO at zero tariff on 30th March and sounds very much like the £350 million a week for the NHS nonsense used by the Leave campaign to justify Brexit.

An interesting article in the FT November 2017 took a more forensic look at this...

"For a post-Brexit UK to charge no tariffs on imports from the EU would be a massive breach of the rules of the World Trade Organization, which operates on a “most-favoured nation” (MFN) principle of equal treatment. This can be overridden if two or more members sign a formal bilateral or regional trade agreement among themselves. But it will take years for the UK to agree a trade deal with the EU: Britain cannot simply pre-empt it by holding tariffs at zero from the off.

If the UK discriminates in this way, it will be vulnerable to widespread litigation in the WTO." of which there are over 160 country members.

Kamisiana
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kamisiana » Fri Mar 15, 2019 11:48 am

It does not matter what part of the EU it's all under one roof, the most noise coming from individual states today are the ones with the most to loose they are not interested in the UK only themselves serious back pedaling from Macron today, WTO all the way now.


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