Tim wrote:I'm sure Boris is aware of the above and I suspect his so-called plan is merely flim-flam for the media. His real plan (if elected) is to go straight for a no-deal exit and his big gamble is that when the inevitable no confidence motion is debated, the Tory MP's that have said they'll vote against the government and bring it down, will pull back from the brink and support him. I strongly suspect they won't (and it wouldn't need many) and that Boris could go down as the shortest serving PM in British history.
So what is Hunt’s plan? It’s not all about Bojo.Kilkis wrote:Well we know exactly why he won the contest amongst MPs. He offered them a bribe of £6,623.40 increase in their take home pay if they voted for him. I don't think it is any accident that an MPs basic salary is £79,468 and the very first policy he revealed was an increase in the threshold for the 40 % tax rate to £80,000. Having won the parliamentary part of the process he now has a simple narrative to convince Tory party members:
1 I can do Brexit and nobody else can.
2 I was an absolutely brilliant Mayor of London so I will be an absolutely brilliant PM.
3 I won the London Mayoral race twice, a traditional Labour stronghold, so I can beat Corbyn.
In his limited number of televised debates/interviews so far he has not strayed from that narrative one nanometre. Every question outside that narrative is blocked, usually simply by returning to the narrative. That is normally a pretty good indicator that the narrative is very weakly grounded in reality. Theresa May did it all the time as have many MPs of all parties. His plan for achieving Brexit is 4 pronged:
1 Disaggregate the items in the Withdrawal Agreement. So far the EU has stuck unanimously to a policy that the Withdrawal Agreement is a package and you cannot disaggregate it.
2 Withhold the £39 billion and adopt a policy of "constructive ambiguity". So far the EU has said that if the UK refuses to pay the £39 billion they will simply take the UK to the International Court. As far as they are concerned the £39 billion is a debt that the UK owes to the EU so not paying it would be the same as the UK government defaulting on a debt. I have no idea what the outcome of such a case would be but I wouldn't bet on the UK winning. Even if the court ruled that the figure should be lower for some reason, not paying would still be a default and governments defaulting on their debts never ends well.
3 Adopt a bidirectional zero tariff policy on trade until a trade agreement can be reached. This might be possible under GAT 24, which is part of WTO rules but it is not certain. The overriding rule in the WTO rule book is that of "Most Favoured Nation", i.e. you must treat all WTO members the same. WTO rules do allow bilateral and multilateral trade agreements where countries can have lower quotas and/or tariffs between themselves than they generally use and the EU itself is an example of that, i.e. totally free trade between its members but tariffs imposed on non-members. There is a clause within GAT 24 that allows countries to temporarily apply zero tariffs for a period of time while they are completing a free trade agreement and Boris believes he can use that clause. It is this idea that is debatable. Firstly the clause is intended for countries that are working towards a free trade agreement but the UK is leaving a free trade agreement so WTO might not be amenable to seeing the clause use in that situation. Secondly, and more importantly, it requires the agreement of the EU and the EU has said that you cannot have EU benefits unless you adhere to EU membership rules.
4 Replace the backstop with alternative arrangements. Nobody in the Tory party seems to understand or accept that the EU are demanding the backstop because they are not convinced that alternative arrangements will work or how long they will take to implement.
It's certainly a plan but I don't think I would describe it as "a cunning plan" even by Baldrick's standards. Obviously it is a possibility that the EU will go along with this plan but if you wanted to express it as a probability I think you would need a Summit supercomputer to calculate how many zeros to put after the decimal point.
Kamisiana wrote:Can anyone find any way of blaming Brexit for the future UK job loses due to robots even the Guardian has not made a link yet
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... eports-say
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