The Will of the People

Temporary Forum - Please keep it CIVIL and ON TOPIC regarding updates/ news / concerns on British living / travelling in the EU.
bobscott
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby bobscott » Sun Dec 09, 2018 3:48 pm

scooby wrote:I thought Dominic Raab gave an excellent interview on Sophie Ridge this morning.


For once, I agree with you Scooby! Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:14 pm

bobscott wrote:
scooby wrote:I thought Dominic Raab gave an excellent interview on Sophie Ridge this morning.


For once, I agree with you Scooby! Bob.
I knew you would come over to the "dark side" eventually :lol:

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Sun Dec 09, 2018 5:21 pm

Ignore him, Bob. He's just drunk too much raki at lunchtime. I'm amazed he's still awake.

Warwick

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:00 pm

Kilkis wrote:Ignore him, Bob. He's just drunk too much raki at lunchtime. I'm amazed he's still awake.

Warwick
Err pot kettle black?

bobscott
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby bobscott » Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:43 pm

I do think Raab had a point: I can appreciate a point well made, even if I am still on the Remain side; sorry!! B
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Jeffstclair
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Jeffstclair » Sun Dec 09, 2018 11:15 pm

Err , how much Raki is too much Raki ... more research needed ....

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:26 pm

I would agree that Dominic Raab gave a very good interview on Sophie Ridge as did Dominic Grieve, i.e. from the opposite side. Both were very straightforward. Neither equivocated in any way. You still have to be careful when evaluating these interviews if you do not then try to independently verify what they say.

For example Dominic Raab said that prophesies of long delays at Dover were nonsense and scaremongering. He said that customs checks would take no more than 2 minutes. Is his claim true? In May the BBC looked at the border crossings between the EU and Norway and Switzerland. Norway is part of the EU Single market through EEA membership but is not part of the customs union neither is Switzerland so border checks are needed. This is quoted directly from the BBC article:

    Even so, Norway's border with Sweden is one of the simplest and most technologically advanced customs borders in the world, and lorries only ever have to stop once. They do not have to repeat the same process on both sides of the border.

    At the main border crossing at Svinesund, Norwegian customs say they deal with about 1,300 heavy goods vehicles every day - which is less than a tenth of the number that passes through Dover.

    And the average time from when a lorry arrives to when it leaves the border? About 20 minutes. That includes roughly 10 minutes waiting time, three to six minutes of handling time, and the time spent coming off the road to complete the customs process.

    It is highly efficient, but certainly not entirely frictionless.

What does Raab base his 2 minutes on? We have no idea. He never says. It is simply yet another assertion. I suspect he is using a best possible case of how long it takes the customs official to check the information which is only a small part of the total time taken. The Norwegian border is there, it exists, it has been operational for many years, the figures are based on real life experience. The BBC found a similar picture at the Swiss-French border with delays of 20 minutes up to 2 hours.

I have no doubt that May's aspiration in the Chequers plan to have a completely frictionless border control system with no physical border is possible. I can even envisage methods to implement it, for example using blockchain and a distributed network of customs' computers across Europe. Unfortunately such a system does not exist today and it cannot be implemented overnight. The EU has trading relations with virtually every country in the world and trade deals with a large number. In every case, if the country is outside the EU customs union, there are customs checks. There is a border to be crossed. If such a frictionless system existed don't you think it would be in use at some of these borders?

Warwick

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Mon Dec 10, 2018 4:59 pm

I am sick and tired of remainer politicians saying it's the only deal on the table, have the EU walked away? Get back in with a new person who truly believes in delivering Brexit and tell the EU in no uncertain terms the ball is now in their court as the backstop is a no go. And as for some delays at ports anything can be overcome if there is a will to do something, we have operation brock in the pipeline which will cut down waiting times (even though we don't fully know what the waiting time is!). Just build another tunnel, I mean lets face it if there was a disaster it would be cut off anyway so what then? At least one tunnel could keep things moving. The Eurotunnel took 6 years and depending which report is believed cost anywhere between 4.6 Billion and 9 Billion to complete, chicken feed (today I suppose you could double the price but still worth every penny) plus think about the employment it would create on both sides.

Philb
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Philb » Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:30 pm

scooby wrote:I am sick and tired of remainer politicians saying it's the only deal on the table, have the EU walked away? Get back in with a new person who truly believes in delivering Brexit and tell the EU in no uncertain terms the ball is now in their court as the backstop is a no go. And as for some delays at ports anything can be overcome if there is a will to do something, we have operation brock in the pipeline which will cut down waiting times (even though we don't fully know what the waiting time is!). Just build another tunnel, I mean lets face it if there was a disaster it would be cut off anyway so what then? At least one tunnel could keep things moving. The Eurotunnel took 6 years and depending which report is believed cost anywhere between 4.6 Billion and 9 Billion to complete, chicken feed (today I suppose you could double the price but still worth every penny) plus think about the employment it would create on both sides.


Scooby, you're really getting desperate believing somebody can deliver the undeliverable.

Maud
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Maud » Mon Dec 10, 2018 6:48 pm

Another case of ‘kicking the van down the track’ today! This is getting very scary now.

As for another tunnel Scooby, the problem isn’t getting the goods/lorries across the Channel, it is checking them at customs! People seem to have lost the focus completely......including T May! It doesn’t matter how one voted, we are sinking further in to the mire.

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Mon Dec 10, 2018 7:22 pm

Philb wrote:
scooby wrote:I am sick and tired of remainer politicians saying it's the only deal on the table, have the EU walked away? Get back in with a new person who truly believes in delivering Brexit and tell the EU in no uncertain terms the ball is now in their court as the backstop is a no go. And as for some delays at ports anything can be overcome if there is a will to do something, we have operation brock in the pipeline which will cut down waiting times (even though we don't fully know what the waiting time is!). Just build another tunnel, I mean lets face it if there was a disaster it would be cut off anyway so what then? At least one tunnel could keep things moving. The Eurotunnel took 6 years and depending which report is believed cost anywhere between 4.6 Billion and 9 Billion to complete, chicken feed (today I suppose you could double the price but still worth every penny) plus think about the employment it would create on both sides.


Scooby, you're really getting desperate believing somebody can deliver the undeliverable.
In what way.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:36 pm

Any nation state has a range of options in how it trades with other nation states. The choice is completely free but each choice comes with consequences. Making a particular choice but expecting not to endure the consequences is madness:

    1 You can opt to be a closed country and not trade at all with any other country. Japan did this for a few hundred years. You have total sovereignty. You can have whatever rules and regulations that you want. Nobody can impose any rules at all on you.
    2 You can trade with another nation under strict controls. You can impose quotas and tariffs. Either you agree quotas and tariffs with the other nation or you impose them unilaterally and suffer whatever the other nation does in response. You still have complete control over your rules and regulations although companies in your country will have to obey the rules and regulations of the other country in order to export to them. All trade has to undergo some form of customs checks to ensure that they conform to the rules and regulations of the country they are going to, that they are within the quotas and that all tariffs have been paid.
    3 You can apply to become a member of the WTO and, if you are accepted, you will need to obey all WTO rules. You can largely have control over your rules and regulations but only within the scope of what WTO rules allow. You can have quotas and tariffs but they also need to be within WTO rules. The advantage of being a member is that you have somewhere to complain if you are treated unfairly by another country. The price you pay is that you don't have complete control over your rules and regulations. All trade still has to undergo some form of customs checks to ensure that they conform to the rules and regulations of the country they are going to, that they are within the quotas and that all tariffs have been paid..
    4 You can enter into a Free Trade Agreement with another country. Under that both countries agree to abolish quotas and tariffs. Exactly how you do that is a matter between the two countries, although WTO rules put some limitations on what is allowed. Many people don't seem to realise that having different rules and regulations in the two countries in itself acts as a barrier to free trade and so countries usually want to check that their rules and regulations are equivalent. They don't need to be in total alignment but there does have to be broad equivalence otherwise one country might have a competitive advantage over the other. It is this aspect of negotiating a free trade deal that takes the longest and it may involves both countries amending their rules and regulations to some extent. Yet more loss of total sovereignty to gain better trade. Because the rules and regulations are not completely aligned all trade still has to undergo some form of customs checks to ensure that they conform to the rules and regulations of the country they are going to.
    5 You can enter into a customs union with another country. In this case you not only agree to no quotas and no tariffs but also to complete alignment of your rules and regulations. Because the rules and regulations are aligned you do not need any customs checks on the movement of goods. This gives by far the best trading arrangement but also involves the biggest loss of sovereignty for both countries.

Notice that option 1 does not require customs checks because there is no trade to check. Options 2, 3 and 4 all require customs checks. Option 5 does not require customs checks because of regulatory alignment. The above options apply to all world trade. All trade is carried out under one of these options. Brexit from day one has made two completely incompatible demands. The UK wants to move from option 5, where it is now, to either option 4 or option 3 BUT it does not want customs checks between Northern Ireland and the Republic, because of the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement. It claims it can resolve this dichotomy by technological means but there is no convincing evidence that the technology exists or how quickly it can be implemented. I am sure such solutions can be implemented but I do not know how long they would take. It is not surprising, therefore, that the EU want a backstop in which at least Northern Ireland stays in the customs union until such times as the FTA has been finalised and the technological; solutions implemented. It's also totally logical that the backstop, if implemented would have to exist until technological solutions had been implemented to the satisfaction of both the EU and the UK. Hence it cannot be time limited or unilaterally abandoned.

I am sure the EU would prefer the UK to stay in the EU. I am sure the EU does not want other EU states to follow the UK down the exit road. While I am sure these assertions are true I do not believe that the whole EU negotiation is based around these ideas. The negotiation is based around the the basic principles of trade outlined in options 1 to 5 above. Every aspect of it follows the logic of of those options. Trade deals with other countries fit within these options. Norway, for example, is within EEA, so it follows the freedoms required for members of the single market but it is not in the customs union so it undergoes customs checks. Switzerland is not technically within the EEA, but it bilaterally sticks close to its rules, and is not in the customs union and so it also undergoes customs checks. The EU have been highly flexible in what they have offered. The UK could have Norway Plus and stay in both the single market and the customs union. It could have Norway, i.e. in the single market but not the customs union. It could have a Canada style FTA. It could have Canada Plus, i.e. a Canada style FTA but wider reaching. All these fit within the 5 options. All have consequences. Parliament will not agree to any of them.

My mother used to tell a story of when I was 4 years old. Apparently we were out shopping and met a close friend of the family who stopped to chat. As he was leaving he gave me a sixpence, which I put in my pocket. A short time later we were in Woolworths and I saw a small bell that I fancied and which happened to cost sixpence. I asked my mother if I could have the bell and she said, "Of course you can. You can buy it with the sixpence you were given". I thought for a short while, picked up the bell, rang it a few times and put it back on the counter. I went home with the sixpence still in my pocket. I learnt at 4 years old that you can't have both the bell and the sixpence. Some people, many of them in parliament today, never learn this lesson in life.

Warwick

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:39 pm

Maud wrote:Another case of ‘kicking the van down the track’ today! This is getting very scary now.

As for another tunnel Scooby, the problem isn’t getting the goods/lorries across the Channel, it is checking them at customs! People seem to have lost the focus completely......including T May! It doesn’t matter how one voted, we are sinking further in to the mire.


I was living in Kenya after the disputed 2007 election. There was a complete power vacuum - everyone could see no one was in control, people took matters into their own hands and over 1,200 people were killed. It unfolded gradually over several weeks like a slow motion car crash. This reminds me of that time - the only difference is that, unlike Kenya, in the UK machetes aren’t on sale in the supermarkets. We’re ok because we brought one back with us - for gardening and self-defence only.

YoMo2
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Location: Milatos, Lasithi

Re: The Will of the People

Postby YoMo2 » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:31 am

Guy M wrote:........ We’re ok because we brought one back with us - for gardening and self-defence only.


:D :D :D :D

Andrew

SatCure
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby SatCure » Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:35 am

If you've been keeping up with the QAnon posts and associated discussions, you'll be aware that President Trump and his Military Intelligence team are influencing the Brexit outcome. In fact they have plans for the entire system of world trade in terms of removing control from families such as Rothschild and their banks. There will be a new dollar, backed by precious metals. There will be a sort of "new world order" but not - I hasten to add - in the form of slavery that the late GHW Bush wanted.

I think I've mentioned this, previously, but my psychic friend thinks that there'll be a hard brexit on March 29th and Teresa Maybe will then resign. After that, there'll be a few weeks of "undecidedness" (chaos), after which the pound will strengthen against the Euro.

Exits stage left

P.s. Warwick, you sat immediately in front of me at Vrises Town Hall but I didn't have a chance to speak, afterwards, because I had to dash through the pouring rain to catch my lift home. Αλλη φορά.


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