The Will of the People

Temporary Forum - Please keep it CIVIL and ON TOPIC regarding updates/ news / concerns on British living / travelling in the EU.
scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:29 am

My gut feeling at this time is that the EU desperately don't want us to go to WTO, they will give nothing to T.May, they will hope that then Labour will get into power backed by the Lib dems and the SNP so as to bring about another referendum (hoping it doesn't go t*ts up again) or a deal keeping us closely alligned. Just thinking out loud.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:14 am

Sorry I missed you, Martin. I got there late because the National Highway, especially between the Omalos road and Souda, was a nightmare.

I am not psychic in anyway but personally I doubt if the USA has the capability to engineer a new dollar backed by precious metals. It would be wonderful for me if they did because if you look at the amount of dollars in circulation and US gold reserves the $ price per ounce of gold would go through the roof. I'm not going to complain if that happens.

I think it more likely that the central banks will not be able to rescue the next financial crisis and it will require intervention world wide from the IMF. They cannot do that by their usual route of borrowing from one country to lend to another but will do it by issuing new SDRs under a sort of global QE. The SDR will effectively become the new World Reserve Currency. They won't be used directly in trade but all currencies will be referenced to the SDR. I think you are right that precious metals will feature in the SDR with the weighting of national currencies in it being determined by the gold reserves of each country so the UK and Sterling will be very weak thanks to Gordon Brown. All countries will have to have their gold reserves independently audited in order to be included in the SDR. At that point I think it probable that the USA will turn out to have much lower gold reserves than they claim and China much higher. I suspect that the Yuan will be one of the biggest percentages in the SDR although the US$ might still be the biggest. India and Russia will also feature more strongly than their currencies do now. I have no idea how they will deal with the Eurozone since some countries in it have quite strong gold reserves and others have quite weak.

It will also be an "interesting time" for those trading in paper gold because the tide will certainly go out on that market and anyone who is wearing no bathing costume will be revealed. Perhaps Mark Chapter 5 Verse 9 might apply. How's that for a metaphor mash-up?

A non-politician made an interesting comment on a recent question time, Scooby. He said that he thought if there was another referendum the decision would probably reverse, i.e. remain would win but again by a small majority. He said he didn't really think any significant numbers had changed their minds but that the demographics had changed in the intervening 2 to 3 years. Analysing the original vote shows that a majority of older people voted to leave while a majority of younger people voted to remain. Some of those older people will have shuffled off this mortal coil so will no longer be voting, slightly reducing the leave vote, while a number of younger voters will have become eligible to vote who weren't before, slightly increasing the remain vote. He also suggested that perhaps young voters, who traditionally do not vote in as high numbers as older voters, might be more likely to vote this time because the chaos has been so high profile. Just thinking out loud. I've no idea which way it would go or what the political ramifications would be.

Warwick

PS For those who like to de-construct people's posts and reassign their meaning, I am not saying I want a second vote or that there should be one, only reporting an interesting view on what might, I stress might, happen if there was one. I am, also not suggesting all old people voted leave nor that all young voters voted remain.

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:32 am

If there was to be a 2nd referendum the probability is to go the other way as the remain camp would ramp it up a lot more this time. Interesting watching a correspondent in the street asking three students what they thought about Brexit, the main thing they were virtually crying about and saying was "but we want to travel the world" they don't seem to understand that no one is going to stop them.

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:34 am

scooby wrote:..... Interesting watching a correspondent in the street asking three students what they thought about Brexit, the main thing they were virtually crying about and saying was "but we want to travel the world" they don't seem to understand that no one is going to stop them.


Well, people will still be able to travel, but....Freedom of movement goes both ways, so just as it will be harder for Europeans to work in the U.K., so it will be harder for Brits to work in Europe. Likewise if you want to live in another country in Europe, it won’t be so easy.

None of this means another referendum is necessarily a good idea - what if Remain wins? Do we play ‘best of three’? At some point, we’ve all got to get on with our lives and get cured of this Brexit fever that is destroying the country. As I said in a previous post, I was in Kenya when something similar happened in 2007; eventually, they got Koffi Annan in to resolve things. Something similar may be needed here to stop the endless, increasing laughing stock the U.K. has become. It’s humiliating.

bobscott
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby bobscott » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:42 pm

Just to clarify a small point in your post earlier Warwick. You said 'Switzerland is not technically within the EEA, but it bilaterally sticks close to its rules, and is not in the customs union and so it also undergoes customs checks.' We were in Geneva last week and took the opportunity to go to France (Annecy) by bus. We went both ways across the border through what appeared to be an abandoned customs/immigration post - the area was still called 'DOUANE' by the way! Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Tue Dec 11, 2018 12:56 pm

scooby wrote:... the main thing they were virtually crying about and saying was "but we want to travel the world" they don't seem to understand that no one is going to stop them.


Obviously they will still be able to travel on holiday but what about work? I realise that "searching for work" is an alien concept to you Scooby but it is the primary concern of most of the young. As long as we are in the EU they have an absolute right to go and work in any country in the EU. Obviously it doesn't guarantee them a job. They have to find someone who is willing to employ them in that country at a rate that they are willing to work for but once they have done that they simply pack a case and go. I know, I've done it. No permissions, no visas, no government processes at all. When we leave the EU they will no longer have that right. They might be able to go or they might not. What is more someone working in an EU country today would be able to stay in that EU country after we leave if the deal goes through. They would not, however, have the right to move to a different country that they have now. It doesn't necessarily stop them but it might stop them and it certainly curtails their freedom.

The UK government have openly stated that they want to reduce massively the number of people coming to the UK from the EU. Perhaps EU states might reciprocate? I would imagine if people in those countries, who wanted to move to the UK, are prevented from doing so in future they will be yelling at their government to stop UK citizens coming to their country. I would imagine that will be reflected in that country's media and we all know how governments respond to that.

It is true that there are many crossings that are not manned, Bob, but that does not mean there are no customs checks on goods. There is a legal obligation for goods being transported from Switzerland to the EU and vice-versa to go through a customs process. There are specific border crossings where they can go through that process and most trucks go through those crossings. A truck could avoid going through the customs process by using one of the unmanned crossings BUT trucks are randomly stopped by the police on roads around those crossings. If they haven't gone through the correct customs process and obtained the correct paperwork they are breaking the law and the fines are very high.

Warwick

Maud
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Maud » Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:27 pm

Some years ago I accompanied two 50+ coaches of school children to France for two weeks. We were in the Haute Jura and did a day trip to Geneva. We assumed that at the customs points we would just hand over the passports and ‘sail’ through! - No such luck! All 98 students and teaching staff had to disembark on our entry to Switzerland whilst the customs people checked both coaches. (Half an hour delay to us). The car in front was even having its rear seats lifted up and examined! On returning to France we were just waved through.

We regularly drive through Switzerland on our way to Greece. We have been ‘pulled over’ and questioned about our journey, but never searched. (Possibly due to the fact we have always had two large dogs in the vehicle!). We frequently see other motorists receiving more attention than us though! I am sure that much depends on what ‘alert’ a country is on, and what intelligence it is receiving, but in these times of terrorism, drug and people smuggling etc, checks are only going to get more stringent, with both trucks and cars etc.

If this is a ‘taster’ of what is to come when we are no longer part of the EU, it does not bode well. It is about more than just crossing borders though, as Guy has already pointed out. Travelling for young people also usually means working during their trips. I watched a young chap being interviewed at the weekend. He said he had spent a year travelling the EU working as a waiter and a lifeguard. He is concerned that his younger brother on his gap year will not have the same opportunity to travel and experience other cultures etc if we leave the EU without a deal.

These youngsters with ‘open minds’ wish to broaden their horizons, not be constrained by borders and work permits. They certainly are not going to vote for Brexit if there is a second vote. I am not saying there should be one, - just re-enforcing Warwick’s comment about demographics changing. I am sure many Brexiteers are aware of this, which is why they don’t want a second vote. I am a firm believer in democracy, but feel that in this instance the ‘will of the people’ in 2019 (Which it will be in a few weeks) is being ignored.......especially now we all know the problems involved with Brexit. If there is a second vote and people still vote for Brexit, I will accept it and hope all works out well for the U.K. I just want to be sure that it IS what people want NOW, and that the futures of our young citizens are being considered.

The possibility of a hard Brexit looms. This will only please a very small amout of people. Is this what everyone voted for?
This goes back to the title of this thread. - The Will of the People!

SatCure
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby SatCure » Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:30 pm

The possibility of a hard Brexit looms. This will only please a very small amout of people.

You mean a small number of people. (You can have a small "amount" of people if first you run them through a mincer!) :wink:

Is this what everyone voted for?

In my case, yes. And, if the previous PM had kept his promise, it would have been over with and smoothed out already. I was fully prepared for six months of pain but, by procrastinating and making excuses, they've maintained the pain for much longer.

This chappie provides interesting reports:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCB1o7_ ... samWxFenBg

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:58 pm

Kilkis wrote:
scooby wrote:... the main thing they were virtually crying about and saying was "but we want to travel the world" they don't seem to understand that no one is going to stop them.


Obviously they will still be able to travel on holiday but what about work? I realise that "searching for work" is an alien concept to you Scooby but it is the primary concern of most of the young. As long as we are in the EU they have an absolute right to go and work in any country in the EU. Obviously it doesn't guarantee them a job. They have to find someone who is willing to employ them in that country at a rate that they are willing to work for but once they have done that they simply pack a case and go. I know, I've done it. No permissions, no visas, no government processes at all. When we leave the EU they will no longer have that right. They might be able to go or they might not. What is more someone working in an EU country today would be able to stay in that EU country after we leave if the deal goes through. They would not, however, have the right to move to a different country that they have now. It doesn't necessarily stop them but it might stop them and it certainly curtails their freedom.

The UK government have openly stated that they want to reduce massively the number of people coming to the UK from the EU. Perhaps EU states might reciprocate? I would imagine if people in those countries, who wanted to move to the UK, are prevented from doing so in future they will be yelling at their government to stop UK citizens coming to their country. I would imagine that will be reflected in that country's media and we all know how governments respond to that.

It is true that there are many crossings that are not manned, Bob, but that does not mean there are no customs checks on goods. There is a legal obligation for goods being transported from Switzerland to the EU and vice-versa to go through a customs process. There are specific border crossings where they can go through that process and most trucks go through those crossings. A truck could avoid going through the customs process by using one of the unmanned crossings BUT trucks are randomly stopped by the police on roads around those crossings. If they haven't gone through the correct customs process and obtained the correct paperwork they are breaking the law and the fines are very high.

Warwick
They did say they want to "travel the world" not work. If they want to work and we have gone to WTO they will have to apply, yes not as easy but everyone wants everything easy but can be done. My mates used to go to Israel on working holidays and to Australia, they had to apply, this was before the internet, still not a problem. There are 32,000 non EU residents on Crete, they had to apply to live here, but they are still here.

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:04 pm

Maud wrote:Some years ago I accompanied two 50+ coaches of school children to France for two weeks. We were in the Haute Jura and did a day trip to Geneva. We assumed that at the customs points we would just hand over the passports and ‘sail’ through! - No such luck! All 98 students and teaching staff had to disembark on our entry to Switzerland whilst the customs people checked both coaches. (Half an hour delay to us). The car in front was even having its rear seats lifted up and examined! On returning to France we were just waved through.

We regularly drive through Switzerland on our way to Greece. We have been ‘pulled over’ and questioned about our journey, but never searched. (Possibly due to the fact we have always had two large dogs in the vehicle!). We frequently see other motorists receiving more attention than us though! I am sure that much depends on what ‘alert’ a country is on, and what intelligence it is receiving, but in these times of terrorism, drug and people smuggling etc, checks are only going to get more stringent, with both trucks and cars etc.

If this is a ‘taster’ of what is to come when we are no longer part of the EU, it does not bode well. It is about more than just crossing borders though, as Guy has already pointed out. Travelling for young people also usually means working during their trips. I watched a young chap being interviewed at the weekend. He said he had spent a year travelling the EU working as a waiter and a lifeguard. He is concerned that his younger brother on his gap year will not have the same opportunity to travel and experience other cultures etc if we leave the EU without a deal.

These youngsters with ‘open minds’ wish to broaden their horizons, not be constrained by borders and work permits. They certainly are not going to vote for Brexit if there is a second vote. I am not saying there should be one, - just re-enforcing Warwick’s comment about demographics changing. I am sure many Brexiteers are aware of this, which is why they don’t want a second vote. I am a firm believer in democracy, but feel that in this instance the ‘will of the people’ in 2019 (Which it will be in a few weeks) is being ignored.......especially now we all know the problems involved with Brexit. If there is a second vote and people still vote for Brexit, I will accept it and hope all works out well for the U.K. I just want to be sure that it IS what people want NOW, and that the futures of our young citizens are being considered.

The possibility of a hard Brexit looms. This will only please a very small amout of people. Is this what everyone voted for?
This goes back to the title of this thread. - The Will of the People!
Interesting that you say "in these days of terrorism, drug and people smuggling etc checks are only going to get more stringent. In your next bit you say "if this is a taster of what is to come when we are no longer part of the EU it doesn't bode well. You can't have it both ways, either you don't want terrorism, drug and people smuggling, or you don't want checks.

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:23 pm

Dominic Grieve gets the perfect slap down at about 3.40 minutes of this clip for once again trying the fear tactic, priceless. He basically says the old chestnut about planes not flying the day after we leave (on WTO terms although he obviously calls it no deal).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhpKrjA1eXY

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:07 pm

What have we learned from this ‘will of the people’? After over 2 years, it’s may be worth thinking about.

Not the obvious generalities - politicians are clueless, leaving the EU is more complicated than you think etc, but on a personal level.

I rely on other people even less now than I did in 2016, I think social media is more often than not a force for bad - in the past the village idiot was the man wandering around talking to himself by the duck pond in the middle of the day that your parents told you to avoid, now the World’s village idiots get to broadcast rubbish on big issues like Brexit to the World, and, most of all, i’m convinced that you have to follow Herod’s advice to Claudius in Robert Graves’ I Claudius: trust no one. The World seems a less collegiate, cooperative place to me. Sad (as DTrump might day).

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Tue Dec 11, 2018 11:48 pm

It's a pretty normal cycle, Guy. We start with nation states competing with each other. That ends in conflict and ultimately war. The war results in large number of people being killed. Those that fight the war understand the true cost so they try to cooperate rather than compete. That works for a time but eventually those that understand the true cost die, self interest takes over and leads to competition again. So the cycle goes on.

In economic terms countries fight currency wars to try to gain an economic advantage. It doesn't work so they fight trade wars to try to gain an economic advantage. That doesn't work either. Eventually they fight military wars to try to gain an economic advantage but all that does is destroy capital and the cycle begins again. We are currently in phase 2.

We learn nothing or rather our leaders learn nothing and those that do learn have no influence. 'Twas ever thus.

Warwick

Maud
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Maud » Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:50 am

I would rather have the checks than get blown up Scooby. I was just making the point that there are already checks, and if we leave the EU there will be even more for U.K. citizens.

Tonight it looks possible (again) that T May is about to face a leadership challenge. If that is the case we may be facing a ‘no deal’ Brexit. (The U.K. is in trouble if Boris Johnson or his mates become PM!). - Very worrying.

evansmr1
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby evansmr1 » Wed Dec 12, 2018 10:15 am

Maud wrote
If there is a second vote and people still vote for Brexit, I will accept it and hope all works out well for the U.K.


What if there is a 2nd vote and it is in favour of remaining. Score 1:1 so there them must be a tie breaker, a 3rd vote.
Time that that useless lot in the British Parliament got their act together and stopped throwing their toys out of their prams.Seems that what is needed is a complete new set of MPs who will dedicate themselves to running the country in a professional manner and dedication, keeping their snouts out of the feed bins.
Mike
=============
Sic parvis magnaike


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