The Will of the People

Temporary Forum - Please keep it CIVIL and ON TOPIC regarding updates/ news / concerns on British living / travelling in the EU.
scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:04 pm

Philb wrote:'Three blokes in a pub' is a very worthwhile watch with three extremely knowledgeable participents. I'm sure Weymouth College has got many notable alumni.
Never watched it to be honest but I guess it's three blokes with the same agenda? I.e no alternative argument for Brexit? Just curious.
Get Brexit done.

Philb
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Location: Kalamitsi Alexandrou

Re: The Will of the People

Postby Philb » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:11 pm

scooby wrote:
Philb wrote:'Three blokes in a pub' is a very worthwhile watch with three extremely knowledgeable participents. I'm sure Weymouth College has got many notable alumni.
Never watched it to be honest but I guess it's three blokes with the same agenda? I.e no alternative argument for Brexit? Just curious.


If you're curious give it a go.

scooby
Posts: 1741
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:54 pm

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:33 pm

Philb wrote:
scooby wrote:
Philb wrote:'Three blokes in a pub' is a very worthwhile watch with three extremely knowledgeable participents. I'm sure Weymouth College has got many notable alumni.
Never watched it to be honest but I guess it's three blokes with the same agenda? I.e no alternative argument for Brexit? Just curious.


If you're curious give it a go.
I will give it a go if you can assure me I am not wasting my time, i.e at least one of them is FOR Brexit? Otherwise what is the point.
Get Brexit done.

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:55 pm

Well there's over 20 episodes, I think all are about 1 hour long but I haven't checked, and I don't think you are going to find many pro-Brexit arguments in them at all. Today "knowledgeable" is used to describe anybody who agrees with your own viewpoint.

Warwick

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Sun Dec 30, 2018 6:00 pm

Well said, Warwick. The great majority of the focus is on Brexit. When other things are looked at, they are not handled very well.

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Sun Dec 30, 2018 6:13 pm

I thought a good comment was made by someone from the Adam Smith institute on the Sky News paper review this morning. He said every MP should just be honest, say what they think and make their arguments for why they think it. The vast majority are simply saying what suits their own political ends.

Warwick

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Sun Dec 30, 2018 7:41 pm

Yes they are saying things for their own ends - jockeying to succeed May (Hunt, Javid, Gove) or to replace the government (Corbyn, McDonald). It’s rather a moot point to say not implementing the referendum would destroy people’s faith in parliament and democracy - there can’t be many people who have any faith in either at all after the behaviour of MPs in the last two years.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:12 pm

I lost faith in parliament and democracy about 40 years ago so Brexit has only served to confirm my opinion.

Warwick

Kamisiana
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kamisiana » Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:34 am

Philb wrote:'Three blokes in a pub' is a very worthwhile watch with three extremely knowledgeable participents. I'm sure Weymouth College has got many notable alumni.


One bloke not in a pub Expert and professor in economics Yanis Varoufakis thoughts on the Euro maybe best not to keep too many Euros in the bank unless its German now that could take the focus away from Brexit.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eurus ... varoufakis

SueA
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Location: Crete

Re: The Will of the People

Postby SueA » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:12 am

Kamisiana wrote:
Philb wrote:'Three blokes in a pub' is a very worthwhile watch with three extremely knowledgeable participents. I'm sure Weymouth College has got many notable alumni.


One bloke not in a pub Expert and professor in economics Yanis Varoufakis thoughts on the Euro maybe best not to keep too many Euros in the bank unless its German now that could take the focus away from Brexit.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eurus ... varoufakis


Reading the article, I lost faith in Varoufakis as soon as he said "So if you happen to have Euros in 'Deutsche Bank' in Frankfurt they are going to appreciate and you will get a magnificent windfall."

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/arti ... stigation/ I have no idea whether this article is good or bad, or true or false, but it's a different perspective.

scooby
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Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:54 pm

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:42 am

SueA wrote:
Kamisiana wrote:
Philb wrote:'Three blokes in a pub' is a very worthwhile watch with three extremely knowledgeable participents. I'm sure Weymouth College has got many notable alumni.


One bloke not in a pub Expert and professor in economics Yanis Varoufakis thoughts on the Euro maybe best not to keep too many Euros in the bank unless its German now that could take the focus away from Brexit.

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eurus ... varoufakis


Reading the article, I lost faith in Varoufakis as soon as he said "So if you happen to have Euros in 'Deutsche Bank' in Frankfurt they are going to appreciate and you will get a magnificent windfall."

http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/arti ... stigation/ I have no idea whether this article is good or bad, or true or false, but it's a different perspective.
I shouldn't worry about Deutsche Bank too much, they are all at it anyway.
Get Brexit done.

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:23 pm

Strangely both arguments are correct, SueA, although his choice of Deutsche bank as an example was perhaps not the best one to use.

Most of the economic experts I tend to look to for ideas believe that the Euro will end because Germany pulls out of it not one of the weaker southern European countries. This is supported by history. The Soviet Union traded in Roubles. The satellite states bought more from Russia than Russia bought from the satellite states. This meant a flow of Roubles from the satellite states to Russia. To balance the books Russia used something called the "Transfer Rouble" which flowed back to the satellite states from Russia. Satellite states could not actually spend Transfer Roubles but whenever Russia bought anything from a satellite state Transfer Roubles would flow back. This is regarded as an accounting artefact but in reality is a hidden debt by the satellite states to Russia. Eventually Russia decided it could not stand this ever increasing hidden debt any longer and abandoned the Transfer Rouble.

The Soviet experience is exactly mirrored in the Euro. Southern European states buy more from Germany than Germany buys from the southern states. This imbalance is dealt with in the ECB books by Target 2 transfers from Germany to the southern states. They are the Euro equivalent of the Transfer Rouble and are also a hidden debt, dismissed by the ECB as purely an accounting artefact. This graph shows that the Target 2 transfers from Germany to southern states, especially Spain and Italy, is now approaching €1Trillion, which is a lot of hidden debt. Germany cannot stop the use of Target 2 transfers as they are under control of the ECB but it can abandon them by abandoning the Euro. If the Euro collapses each country will adopt its own currency and Euro in banks in each country will be converted to that country's new currency. When that happens the new Deutsch Mark will appreciate rapidly and the new Escudo, Peseta, Lira and Drachma will rapidly depreciate. People with their money stored in a German bank will see its buying power increase while those with money in local southern banks will see its buying power decrease. That is what Varoufakis was describing and I agree with him.

Completely separate from the flaws in the Euro currency system there is the systemic risk to the world financial system. We are told that the underlying cause of the 2008 financial crisis was that the balance sheets of the major banks were too big, the amount of debt, government, private and commercial was too big and the amount of money committed to derivatives was too big. Since the financial crisis all these parameters have got bigger, in the case of derivatives by an extraordinary amount, but we are told that the financial system is safer. How can that be? Banks have been forced to increase their capital reserves, which is supposed to make them safer, but that increase is a flea bite compared to the worsening of the other parameters. Also what classes as capital reserve is highly dubious. What will trigger the next crisis, when it will happen and how it will develop is completely unknown but the crisis is already there waiting to happen. Why single out Deutsche Bank? For a number of reasons. A possible (probable?) trigger is the collapse of the Italian banking system, which is completely insolvent, like the Greek banking system but much bigger, and Deutsche bank has loaned vast sums of money to Italian banks. Deutsche Bank could not withstand a large-scale default by Italian banks. Another possible (probable?) trigger is the increasing default level in auto-loan debt and corporate bonds. These have all been sliced and diced into derivatives, like sub-prime mortgages were back before 2008, and Deutsche bank has the biggest derivative book in the world I think. Finally Deutsche bank is the most interconnected bank in the world so if it collapses all the major banks will collapse. It is doubtful if the central banks can stop a total collapse this time as they did in 2008 and there will be a massive destruction of wealth.

If you think the first scenario will occur first then holding Euro in a German bank makes sense. If you think the second scenario will occur first then getting out of currency altogether and into tangible assets is the only option, e.g. precious metals, precious stones, fine art, property etc. It has to be something real and tangible outside the banking sector. For preference you should have it at home, i.e. if you don't hold it you don't own it. That has to be balanced against the risk of burglary but don't use bank safety deposit boxes for storage, use vaults outside the banking sector. If you don't have any savings at all or you don't believe either will happen, just carry on living your life and ignore what is happening in the world of finance.

Warwick

SueA
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Location: Crete

Re: The Will of the People

Postby SueA » Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:15 pm

After the hoops we had to jump through to open and maintain a Greek bank account and the problems with opening an interest-bearing UK one when you live here, I imagine opening a German account to look after my few euro would be well nigh impossible. So I will have to carry on living in my little Cretan bubble and hope for the best! As long as we are allowed to, that is!

scooby
Posts: 1741
Joined: Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:54 pm

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:36 pm

From a September article, just give him the bloody job!

http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/An ... nter.shtml
Get Brexit done.

Philb
Posts: 189
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2017 3:33 pm
Location: Kalamitsi Alexandrou

Re: The Will of the People

Postby Philb » Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:51 pm

scooby wrote:From a September article, just give him the bloody job!

http://www.ocnus.net/artman2/publish/An ... nter.shtml


I wouldn't trust that contemptible, two faced, lying oaf to run a bath.


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