The Will of the People

Temporary Forum - Please keep it CIVIL and ON TOPIC regarding updates/ news / concerns on British living / travelling in the EU.
scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:37 pm

bobscott wrote:Personally I think we are about to jump off the edge of the cliff. Tonight's vote is meaningless as far as making anything binding. It will do no more than confirm that most people don't want a no-deal ending to this farce. Nothing legally binding though. That then leads to tomorrow, when voting for an extension may well get through. Enter Barnier and crew who say they want a good reason to be put forward. It will be entirely in their gift. I don't think we have a good enough reason. In any case, the EU doesn't want us to be around when the May elections to the EU Parliament are going on - they want us sorted before then. So a short extension will do what? No more concessions from the EU; no more bright ideas about the Irish problem. Total disarray. Heigh ho, interesting times ahead!

Odd, isn't it that the adamant Brexiteers are the ones who are pushing us over the cliff? But of course, they got their investments and premises out of the country and into Europe (that bad place!) beforehand so they don't give a monkey's. :lol: Bob.
Of course Parliament will vote down no deal but to say that "most people" don't want it is a calculated guess, it's the MP's who are saying they don't want a no deal. Will be interesting when the no deal proposals from the government are produced, it is reported that the UK government does not intend to collect customs duties or have any other controls at the Irish border in the event of a no-deal Brexit. What would the EU do in that scenario?

Tim
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Tim » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:13 pm

If one of the reasons HMG puts forward to the EU in its application to extend A50, is for time to enact legislation to remove No Deal from the statute books, as per the indicative vote this evening, I'm sure the EU will grant the extension like a shot.

Once No Deal is not possible, one imagines that the ERG will have been comprehensively outflanked and will have to vote for TM's deal or face the prospect of Brexit slipping away via a Second Referendum/General Election/Renegotiation/change of PM or any combination thereof.

Tim

GlennB
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby GlennB » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:23 pm

Tim wrote:If one of the reasons HMG puts forward to the EU in its application to extend A50, is for time to enact legislation to remove No Deal from the statute books, as per the indicative vote this evening, I'm sure the EU will grant the extension like a shot.

Once No Deal is not possible, one imagines that the ERG will have been comprehensively outflanked and will have to vote for TM's deal or face the prospect of Brexit slipping away via a Second Referendum/General Election/Renegotiation/change of PM or any combination thereof.

Tim


Is "no deal" actually on the statute books? I thought it was merely the default if we get to Brexit day without an explicit deal being on the statute books, as it were.

Tim
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Tim » Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:27 pm

I may be using the wrong terminology but, as I understand it, 'no deal' although being a default as you say, cannot be changed without a change in the law which I assume will take a certain amount of time.

bobscott
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby bobscott » Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:49 pm

Tim wrote:I may be using the wrong terminology but, as I understand it, 'no deal' although being a default as you say, cannot be changed without a change in the law which I assume will take a certain amount of time.


Absolutely Tim. If there is no deal by the close of play on 29 March, out we go, with no deal! Only legislation prior to then will prevent 'no deal'. Unlikely scenario. Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Kamisiana
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kamisiana » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:13 pm

bobscott wrote:
Tim wrote:I may be using the wrong terminology but, as I understand it, 'no deal' although being a default as you say, cannot be changed without a change in the law which I assume will take a certain amount of time.


Absolutely Tim. If there is no deal by the close of play on 29 March, out we go, with no deal! Only legislation prior to then will prevent 'no deal'. Unlikely scenario. Bob.


This article seems to explain it well
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/br ... 20426.html

Voni
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Voni » Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:35 pm

Just had the latest info on citizens rights for Greece, the UK Gov information page has been altered slightly see below.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/living-in-g ... =immediate

More interesting is the Greek webpage which says

“In case of no deal (absence of withdrawal agreement): UK nationals permanently living in Greece before 29 March 2019 and already in possession of a registration certificate (βεβαίωση εγγραφής) or a temporary or permanent residence document(πιστοποιητικό έγγραφο άδειας διαμονής), will be asked to proceed, after 1 January 2020, to the municipal authorities and submit the relevant paperwork, in order to exchange their certificates with new biometric resident cards.”

Adequate funds and healthcare are listed as requirements see full details here:

https://brexit.gov.gr/uk-citizens-in-greece/

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:00 pm

GlennB wrote:...Is "no deal" actually on the statute books? I thought it was merely the default if we get to Brexit day without an explicit deal being on the statute books, as it were.


Yes. The European Union Withdrawal Act 2018 passed through both Houses of Parliament on 20 June 2018 and it became law by Royal Assent on 26 June 2018. It is on the Statute Books. It provides for repealing the European Communities Act 1972, i.e. the act that took the UK into the European Economic Community, and for Parliamentary approval of a withdrawal agreement. It states that the UK will leave the EU on Exit Day and it defines that as 29 March 2019. It can only be repealed by another Act of Parliament which would need to pass through all the normal parliamentary procedures of both the Commons and the House of Lords. If a Withdrawal Agreement is not agreed then we leave at 11 pm GMT on 29 March 2019 with no Withdrawal Agreement.

It might be possible to change the date with a Statutory Instrument, which is less arduous to get through parliament, but I am not absolutely certain. Statutory Instruments are normally used to add detail to an Act that lays down general principles and I am not certain if they can be used to change something specific in an Act. For example if the Withdrawal Act had stated that the UK will leave the EU on Exit Day but had not defined when Exit Day was then a Statutory Instrument could be used to define the date of Exit Day. Unfortunately, and rather foolishly, that wasn't done.

People tend to talk about 29 March 2019 as if it had some sacrosanct, mystical significance. It is simply 2 years after the date Theresa May decided to trigger Article 50 and that date was a completely arbitrary, politically driven, decision. You could argue she should have triggered Article 50 on the day the referendum decision was known. Equally you could argue that she should not have triggered Article 50 until she had put in place all necessary mechanisms to deal with leaving the EU whatever the outcome of the negotiation was, or any date in between. It should also be noted that no significant member state had ever left the EU so when Article 50 was written the idea that the withdrawal agreement could be finalised in 2 years was a bit of a guess; it had never been done so nobody knew.

Warwick

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:47 pm

I think May could try to get her deal through a 3rd time.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:55 pm

Absolute chaos in Parliament tonight. The original government motion "notes that parliament does not want to leave without a deal on March 29 and that the default legal position is to leave without a deal unless one is ratified by parliament." That effectively still gave May an open choice. Yesterday Theresa May said that she would give Conservative MPs a free vote on this motions.

Dame Caroline Spelman, a former government minister, had proposed an amendment that "ruled out leaving without a deal under any scenario". Spelman said that she no longer wanted this amendment to be put before the house but Bercow ruled that it could go forward if others who had supported it moved it and Yvette Cooper did move it. The government whipped against this amendment but it won by 4 votes. It turns out that a number of government ministers, perhaps as many as 17, some at cabinet level, were given permission by the whips to abstain. Obviously it would not have passed if they had followed the whip. It seems crazy that Alberto Conti was forced to resign for moving an amendment that the government basically supported but a number of cabinet ministers have been allowed to abstain from a vital vote without having to resign. Clearly May is no longer in control of her cabinet.

The fact that the Spelman amendment passed means that the final motion was voted on as amended. That caused Theresa May to vote against her own motion and to whip her MPs to vote against it. Despite the government whipping against it the motion passed by 43 votes with the same ministers abstaining. While the motion is not legally binding the government is now faced with parliament having voted by a large majority to reject leaving without a deal under any circumstances.

Tomorrow there will be a vote on whether to apply for an extension. Whether that passes or not there is no guarantee the EU would grant it.

Jacob Rees Mogg did say that if an extension was voted for by parliament and approved by the EU a Statutory Instrument could be used to change the date in the Withdrawal Act. I would guess his knowledge of parliamentary procedure is reliable.

Warwick

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:56 pm

You don’t take your biggest bargaining chip off the table without something coming from the other side. Be interesting to see what purpose we will put forward as a reason to extend. The EU have previously said only a general election, a second referendum or revoke will do, then again they now have a sniff of weakness and have been known to bend their rules when it suits.

Mixos
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Mixos » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:12 am

Scooby, I'm not sure the Speaker will allow May to present her "deal" a third time unless there is a material difference in the wording of the motion. As I understand it, the convention has always been that a government cannot keep presenting the same (defeated) motion in the same session of Parliament. I've no doubt this government would find a way around that -- perhaps by altering the Attorney General's legal advice -- but is it not ironic that May is so far refusing to countenance a second referendum but appears quite happy to make MPs keep voting on her so-called deal until they get it "right"?

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Thu Mar 14, 2019 11:43 am

scooby wrote:You don’t take your biggest bargaining chip off the table without something coming from the other side...


I'm not sure no-deal has ever been a bargaining chip at all. It is true that the EU would prefer a deal but they would accept no-deal rather than undermine the principles on which the EU is founded. Their whole negotiating stance, dating back to before the referendum was even tabled, has been consistently that the UK can have whatever deal it wants as long as that deal conforms to the EU rules.

The problem has always been that the UK wants something that does break those rules and the leave side has always believed that the EU would give in. It hasn't and I don't believe it will. The Withdrawal Agreement is completely aligned with the EU rules. If you start with Theresa May's red lines and apply EU rules you arrive at the Withdrawal Agreement. The day Theresa May submitted the Article 50 letter, which laid out the basis on which the UK wished to leave, the Withdrawal Agreement was completely predictable. If she had started with a different basis the Withdrawal Agreement would have been different but, again, completely predictable.

Warwick

PS the word "completely" in the above statement is a slight exaggeration. It would have been difficult to predict the exact value of the financial settlement but even there a close estimate could have been made by the treasury but not necessarily by people like us who do not have access to all the detailed financial information.

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:19 pm

The no deal scenario is most certainly a bargaining chip without a doubt, anything that would hurt any of the 27 is a bargaining chip. The EU have been good at doing nothing, in that they have sat back and watch parliament divide itself. Not ever have anyone seen the 27 divided apart from a couple of times when it was quickly smothered. They are presenting a united front when in fact if a no deal is seriously on, some if not most would be ordering the commission to pull its finger out. Go to the wire!

Tim
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Tim » Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:26 pm

I still think TM could get her deal through at the 3rd (or 4th!) attempt but it would probably take a combination of:

a) The Attorney General 're-interpreting' his legal advice on getting out of the backstop
b) The EU refusing a short extension and threatening the UK with a (say) two year delay
c) Teresa May promising to resign on (say) March 30th

All those things are possible, but I don't see the DUP and the hardline members of the ERG coming on board otherwise and my guess is that she would need all those votes.

A mess.

Tim


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