The Will of the People

Temporary Forum - Please keep it CIVIL and ON TOPIC regarding updates/ news / concerns on British living / travelling in the EU.
Mixos
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Mixos » Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:54 am

Yes, Bob. It's not been lost on observers in the UK that it's apparently OK for Rees-Mogg and the headbangers in the ERG to change their minds, but the voters are still denied the same opportunity

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:14 pm

bobscott wrote:...3. Which leads me to think that they are not really voting for the deal, but rather to get her out early? In which case, what happens when the boss has gone? Back to square/position one again?...


As far as they are concerned it is not quite back to square one. They, or someone they support, get a crack at being top dog. I think the nearest correct adjective is "venal", although it is power rather than money that they will do anything to get.

It is worth noting that the "Confirmatory vote" option was worded that "Any withdrawal agreement must be put to a second referendum." That seems to have two consequences:

    1 Parliament has to agree on some sort of withdrawal agreement before it is put to a second referendum. They still seem unable to do that.
    2 If parliament did agree on some form of withdrawal agreement, the second referendum would probably be worded: "Do you want to leave the EU under the withdrawal agreement approved by parliament or to remain in the EU?" I can see a lot of people being very unhappy with that. In order to hold a second referendum there has to be a second referendum act and that has to go through the full parliamentary voting process, Commons and Lords. I cannot see a referendum with just withdrawal agreement and remain as the options getting a majority. Equally I cannot see a referendum with no-deal on it getting a majority. The no-deal option failed by a very large margin in the indicative votes.

We progress deeper and deeper into "Not every problem has a solution" territory. Watching interviews with a variety of people in Brussels it is clear that they are getting more frustrated, more fatigued and, in some cases, more angry. Despite their self interest in having a trade deal I think they are getting very close to saying: "Just go away and leave us alone". The French Europe minister more or less said it two days ago. Legally the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50 but when he was asked if he thought the UK could do that and stay in the EU he replied: "No, it has gone too far." I think that many are not saying what they really think because they don't want to be seen to be trying to meddle in UK political decisions or to be blamed for forcing the UK out.

Warwick

Toebs
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Toebs » Thu Mar 28, 2019 1:19 pm

Kilkis wrote:
    1 Parliament has to agree on some sort of withdrawal agreement before it is put to a second referendum. They still seem unable to do that.


Right. There's the possibility a second round of indicatives on Monday might lead to something. Aside from that, there's no obvious way forward, except the looming threat of no-deal, which hasn't worked so far. However, as you say - the EU are getting fed up with this. There will come a point where they say "no, no more extensions".

2 If parliament did agree on some form of withdrawal agreement, the second referendum would probably be worded: "Do you want to leave the EU under the withdrawal agreement approved by parliament or to remain in the EU?" I can see a lot of people being very unhappy with that. In order to hold a second referendum there has to be a second referendum act and that has to go through the full parliamentary voting process, Commons and Lords. I cannot see a referendum with just withdrawal agreement and remain as the options getting a majority. Equally I cannot see a referendum with no-deal on it getting a majority. The no-deal option failed by a very large margin in the indicative votes.


All options have to be on a referendum. It is to find out what people want, *regardless of what it is*. To control the options is to control the referedum outcome, and to the extent this occurs it is not a mechanism to find out what people want but a mechanism to reach a pre-determined result. I hope this is understood by MPs/Lords.

We progress deeper and deeper into "Not every problem has a solution" territory. Watching interviews with a variety of people in Brussels it is clear that they are getting more frustrated, more fatigued and, in some cases, more angry.


I may be wrong, but I think it is the type of anger which we feel when we must handle the failure of a relationship with someone we cared for. Our care for that person must be removed, and we do it by becoming angry with them.

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:03 pm

While we are all watching what is happening here, if there is no deal that can command a majority and it's coming to the 12th April I think that just maybe the EU may put up some proposals that may appease. I have no idea what they may be but if it's deadlock in the UK parliament then there is only the EU who could move on some things. I know people are going to say they have been consistent all along etc, but where there is a political will maybe something could be drawn up. Some underestimate how massive it is for the EU to lose one of the big boys, and we are, make no mistake. Just thinking out loud.

Toebs
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Toebs » Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:08 pm

Gov is asking Bercow to allow a MV3 by dint of it being on the WA part of the deal only, not the future relationship. The WA includes the backstop, so the DUP should still vote against.

EU have already indicated they will not agree to this.

I concur with Letwin's comment that how people vote the first time, when they don't know how others are voting, is very different to how they vote the second time.

I hope the next step is a second round of indicatives on Monday.
Last edited by Toebs on Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Toebs
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Toebs » Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:10 pm

scooby wrote:I have no idea what they may be but if it's deadlock in the UK parliament then there is only the EU who could move on some things.


I may be completely wrong, but I begin to get the feeling the EU have lost hope and so will not be trying more. They have no heart for it.

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:04 pm

Toebs wrote:
scooby wrote:I have no idea what they may be but if it's deadlock in the UK parliament then there is only the EU who could move on some things.


I may be completely wrong, but I begin to get the feeling the EU have lost hope and so will not be trying more. They have no heart for it.
You are correct in that you could be completely wrong, but then again so could I. I am sick of hearing that they are fatigued etc, tell that to people who work twelve hours a night or people who have nothing, Not even knowing where their next meal is coming from!

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:58 pm

All you need to know about why we are where we are. Which is a big relief, to be honest.

https://www.politico.eu/article/how-uk- ... gotiation/

Tim
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Contact:

Re: The Will of the People

Postby Tim » Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:14 am

An absolutely spot on analysis. HMG have have played a weak hand very badly from day one, which includes electing a Remainer as PM. The whole thing has been an abysmal mess of poor planning, negotiation and factionalized party politics. We should hold a General Election with the proviso that none of the existing shower are allowed to stand! :|

Tim

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Fri Mar 29, 2019 1:01 am

Shock horror. The EU have a set of rules. They negotiated throughout according to their rules. Who on Earth could have imagined they would do that?

They cannot negotiate trade deals with member countries. Why would they need to? Member countries have signed up to the EU Treaties so there is no need to negotiate trade deals with them. You leave and then you negotiate as a third country like any other third country. That is EU law.

The UK voted to leave. How is it going to play hard-ball? Turn up and say, "If you don't give us what we want we will leave"? The person who wrote Article 50, a member of the UK House of Lords, has said all along that Article 50 was always about how much the leaving country is going to pay. People might think it ought to be about other things but it is what it is.

The UK never had any real leverage. I want to buy a new car. The salesman wants to sell me the new car. He isn't going to give me the new car just to make a "sale".

It doesn't matter who was negotiating the deal they can only choose from a set of alternatives that are allowed under EU law. None of those alternatives command a majority in parliament. Today Arlene Foster said that the DUP won't support the withdrawal agreement because Theresa May decided to have the back stop. That is complete twaddle. Theresa May opted for a final arrangement with the UK outside the single market and the custom's union, because that is what she believed leave voters wanted, and, following EU rules, that led automatically to the backstop. Is there any leave supporter on this forum who wanted to stay inside the single market and the customs union, with all that implies?

Warwick

scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:12 am

It looks like the only way forward is a customs union, failing that we then go backwards with a long extension.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:17 am

An interesting twist on trade. The UK has trade deals with about 40 countries through the EU, i.e. those countries have trade deals with the EU. The government is trying to convert those deals to direct trade deals with the UK to minimise disruption to trade. In some cases it may not be as successful as it hopes.

Rules on country of origin are an important aspect of all trade deals and they specify the percentage of value that must arise in the country stated as the country of origin. Suppose a country is exporting goods to the EU and those goods include components that were exported from the UK. When the UK is in the EU it doesn't matter since the EU is happy to accept goods with EU components. When the UK leaves the EU the country may stop buying the components from the UK because it would not then be able to export the finished product to the EU.

Admittedly a second order effect but not one I have heard discussed much.

Warwick

PS I liked today's Sun front page headline: "Come on Arlene". All together now after three. One, two three....

mouche
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby mouche » Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:55 am


scooby

Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:05 pm

mouche wrote:https://www.ft.com/video/01aef2cb-81b9-4dbb-9f8b-85a0c9559097?fbclid=IwAR1-FVpLEe7diUS7yjorFg1gdwkUlwa_0jw0_xSFXm07dETSpYuS2LGQQCk

I have respect for the man but does he actually believe that the eu can be reformed from within? I have heard this argument from the remain side before. The eu have never been seen to want to reform as it’s put, they think the only way to reform is deeper integration and more protectionism.

Toebs
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Toebs » Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:18 pm

scooby wrote:I have respect for the man but does he actually believe that the eu can be reformed from within?


I may be wrong, but I am of the view in large organizations reform as such simply cannot and so does not occur.


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