The Will of the People

Temporary Forum - Please keep it CIVIL and ON TOPIC regarding updates/ news / concerns on British living / travelling in the EU.
Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:17 pm

It looks like the draft agreement may, and I stress may, be falling apart at the EU end. Unsurprisingly, Spain is objecting to the part governing Gibraltar and want that issue to be subject to a separate agreement. That alone wouldn't scupper the agreement, since, apparently, it will be voted through in the EU under qualified majority voting rules*, but it is being reported that other EU countries are unhappy because they feel it would give the UK a competitive advantage. Effectively MPs in the UK are not happy because they feel the deal does not go far enough and MPs in the EU are unhappy because they think it goes too far. Funny things compromises? What they look like depends where you are stood.

Warwick

* I don't fully understand this? The agreement, if accepted by both sides would lead to a Treaty between the EU and the UK. I thought that new Treaties required unanimity in the Council and only secondary legislation such as Rules, Regulations and Directives were passed on qualified majority voting rules.

Keltz
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Keltz » Tue Nov 20, 2018 3:36 pm

"The Will of the People" is a meaningless political statement seeking to close down debate, much like 'Brexit is Brexit' or 'Enough is Enough'. All Referendums held in the U.K. are advisory only and do not have to be acted upon. Switzerland holds several referendums every year providing Democratic accountability, however the U.K. is not a country like Switzerland but a political and economic Union of 4 countries where the dominant country by population of 85% has the largest number of voting MPs where sovereign power is held. Brexit changes the relationship of all countries within the U.K. where use of the words "The Will of the People" suggest we move forward as one nation while being distracted from the powers now being removed from the devolved parliaments and centralised at Westminster where multinational corporations have significant influence on future UK direction through the unelected House of Lords, the home of the British Establishment. It is no coincidence the Health and Social Care Act 2012 that reorganised the health service in England, removed the responsibility of Westminster to provide health care in England leaving door open for US multinationals. IMHO.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Tue Nov 20, 2018 6:41 pm

In a further twist the devolved Scottish government had tried to submit a request to the ECJ to rule whether or not the UK could unilaterally revoke its Article 50 letter and stay in the EU. The Westminster government had submitted an appeal to the Supreme Court to get the request blocked. Sky are reporting that the Supreme Court has rejected the Westminster government's appeal. I have no idea which way the ECJ will rule. I don't think that there is a majority in parliament to revoke the Article 50 letter BUT if the ECJ rules that it would be possible for the UK to unilaterally revoke it it would prevent the government from telling MPs that doing so is not an option. That could alter the way some MPs vote.

For example if the ECJ rules that it is not possible to unilaterally revoke the letter then MPs arguing for a second vote might be less inclined to push that option but if the ECJ ruled it was possible then they might be more inclined to push for it.

Warwick

YoMo2
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby YoMo2 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 8:41 am

Do we know when the ECJ ruling is expected?

Andrew

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Wed Nov 21, 2018 11:07 am

No idea Andrew. Spain has done some more stirring today. It has always been said that if Scotland voted to leave the union they would not be able to join the EU as an independent country because Spain would veto it, fearing its own separatist movements. Spain has now said that they would not object to an independent Scotland joining the EU. In the last independence referendum voters were told that if they wanted to remain part of the EU they should vote to remain part of the UK. With the UK leaving the EU, Scottish voters, who voted by a large majority to remain in the EU, will have their wishes thwarted. I wonder how that will play out if/when there is another independence referendum?

Warwick

Keltz
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Keltz » Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:24 pm

The ECJ are meeting on 27th November. Described as an oral meeting so not sure when they will pronounce their judgment.

evansmr1
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby evansmr1 » Wed Nov 21, 2018 6:04 pm

A second Vote?. OK let's have one, maybe the majority will vote to Remain. What happens then? The Leavers all complain and have mass meeting, lots of protest marches etc etc. So we then have a third referendum on the subject. Will it be the best of three, or maybe the best of Five?.
NO Second vote, to have one is just pure stupidity.
Mike
=============
Sic parvis magnaike

Kamisiana
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kamisiana » Thu Nov 22, 2018 4:21 pm

Maybe the UK is not the pariah state half of Europe and half the Brits make us out to be maybe the cracks across Europe will get bigger once we have left.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46302931

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Thu Nov 22, 2018 6:50 pm

The last sentence of the article is interesting: "Indeed it may rankle so much that it causes Germany to abandon its post Second World War reluctance to exert its power in Europe." I'm sure that will go down well if they do?

I'm not sure I have heard anyone, I stress anyone at all, from the EU or from the UK describe the UK as a "pariah state". The EU at all levels has made it clear that they want the UK to remain a member. That is hardly labelling it a "pariah state". In the UK roughly half the population think the UK will do better inside the EU and a similar, but slightly larger number, think it will do better outside. Neither of those views could be described as calling the UK a "pariah state". They are simply different assessments of what will happen.

Warwick

Peter W
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Peter W » Fri Nov 23, 2018 8:02 am

New Statesman interview with Yianis Varoufakis:-

https://www.yanisvaroufakis.eu/2018/11/23/21130/

Peter

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Fri Nov 23, 2018 11:32 am

I would broadly agree with him. The UK government should have simply put a wide ranging proposal covering the payment, citizens rights and trade to the EU attached to the Article 50 letter and left them to ponder it. Every section should have been phrased as: "The UK will... provided the EU will..." Clearly this means that if the EU won't agree to any part then the UK will also not agree. It should have been made clear exactly what harm will be done to both sides if the EU rejects any part of the proposal and the EU will need to explain to its citizens why they have caused that harm to occur to them. Instead of negotiating they should have spent the Article 50 period putting in place the infrastructure changes needed to operate as a third country. The UK would then have been prepared for whatever the EU decided and any deal that evolved would have been a bonus.

In life you control what you can and you deal with what you can't.

Warwick

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Fri Nov 23, 2018 1:55 pm

The idea of a wide ranging proposal has some sense but it was never going to happen. This negotiation has always been run by the EU with the U.K. in a subservient, weaker role - there are still, after over 2 years, politicians who don’t understand that and bluster about getting a better deal; amazingly badly briefed (or just saying it for public consumption).

Where the UK could have done more is in preparing for life after Brexit, not in making trade deals, obviously, but in dealing with infrastructure etc. like you say. The whole period has been frittered away. I don’t get angry but if I did, the complacent, incompetent, dishonest UK politicians from Cameron onwards would be top of the list.list.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Fri Nov 23, 2018 2:43 pm

I agree that the EU would probably not have accepted such a deal, Guy, but in behavioural psychology phrasing is everything. At the moment the phrasing is that Theresa May failed to get a good deal. OK they accuse the EU of bullying and wanting to punish the UK but ultimately the blame will lie with Theresa May. If the UK had put together a complete proposal before submitting the article 50 letter and presented them together the phrasing would be that the EU failed to grasp a deal that would benefit the people and companies of the EU. That phrasing might just have persuaded them to lean more towards a deal or it might not. In either case we would not have spent countless man hours negotiating and could have used them to prepare for life after the EU.

To be successful, any deal will rely on better methods of handling customs checks that do not require a physical check at the border itself. The UK could have spent the negotiating period developing and implementing those methods anyway. They would be a benefit to trade whatever the final arrangement is as they could also be applied to trade with other countries. I think if that had started the day after the referendum such processes could be in place and working today. It's not certain but I think there is a good chance or at worst we would be much closer to having a working system. In the event of any deal that required customs checks, which was always the most likely outcome, the UK could have simply said that we are using these new methods for all trade into the UK. Obviously if the EU doesn't want to use these more efficient methods that is up to them but it will be up to them to put in place whatever checks they think they need on their own territory.

I think the problem is and always has been that the government felt it had to put pro-leave people in charge of the negotiation. They were the people who had said that the EU will be forced to give the UK a free trade arrangement without EU membership because it will harm them more than us. That forces them into putting all their time and effort into achieving such a deal even if it is impossible.

Warwick

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Fri Nov 23, 2018 3:30 pm

I’m not sure this government could have agreed amongst themselves two years ago any more than they can now, but you never know. Might have been a good tactic, but the EU has some of the very best trade negotiators in the World, whereas we turned up for the first meeting with David Davies and no notes but only a pencil: the EU was always likely to get the better of any deal.

In the end, the only real consistency in this from the U.K. side (apart from the civil servants) has been TMay herself. So, no surprise that we have been offered a deal that suits her - she was never comfortable as either a Remainer or a Leaver and so we’ve ended up with a softish Brexit, with a heavy focus on immigration, consisting with TMay’s home office track record. I’d guess this is as close to ‘the will of the people’ as we were going to get - immigration probably had a bigger influence on the Referendum than Brussels red tape, a European superstate or arcane arguments about the ECJ. My bet, still, is that, after the shouting and screaming, the U.K. will take what is on offer.

bobscott
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby bobscott » Sat Nov 24, 2018 12:07 pm

Warwick says: 'To be successful, any deal will rely on better methods of handling customs checks that do not require a physical check at the border itself. The UK could have spent the negotiating period developing and implementing those methods anyway. They would be a benefit to trade whatever the final arrangement is as they could also be applied to trade with other countries. I think if that had started the day after the referendum such processes could be in place and working today. '

The problem is that it was months, if not a year before anyone realised just what the impact was going to be in the island of Ireland. Certainly it was not at the forefront of any comment I read. So the issue wasn't anywhere near the top of the agenda!

Also, Guy said: I’m not sure this government could have agreed amongst themselves two years ago any more than they can now, but you never know. Might have been a good tactic, but the EU has some of the very best trade negotiators in the World, whereas we turned up for the first meeting with David Davies and no notes but only a pencil: the EU was always likely to get the better of any deal.

David Davies was the guy who said 'you don't have to be very clever to do this job'. Says it all! Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!


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