Alternative Facts?

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Kilkis
Posts: 8912
Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Alternative Facts?

Postby Kilkis » Wed Feb 15, 2017 8:14 am

Which of these is the "alternative fact"?

From a BBC New article:

"The Greek economy unexpectedly shrank in the three months to December, latest figures show. Output fell by 0.4% in the final quarter of the year, compared with growth of 0.9% in the third quarter. Analysts had been expecting the growth to continue."

From an ekathimerini article:

"The upbeat statements from Athens came after the Greek and European statistics services showed that the Greek economy grew by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter last year, compared to forecasts of a 0.3 percent contraction."

Mirror images or should that be a looking glass? Or you could just make up your own figure?

Warwick

Jean
Posts: 905
Joined: Sun Feb 11, 2007 7:39 pm
Location: West Crete
Contact:

Re: Alternative Facts?

Postby Jean » Wed Feb 15, 2017 9:54 am

Mirror images or should that be a looking glass? Or you could just make up your own figure?

As you must know Kilkis, 73.6% of all statistics are made up.

Maud
Posts: 448
Joined: Thu Mar 07, 2013 10:46 pm
Location: S.W. England/ S.W. Crete.

Re: Alternative Facts?

Postby Maud » Wed Feb 15, 2017 2:17 pm

I had also read both articles Kilkis. My reaction had been exactly the same as yours! You haven't said who you would believe if forced to make a decision? - As Jean mentions......maybe it is all made up!

Kilkis
Posts: 8912
Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: Alternative Facts?

Postby Kilkis » Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:23 pm

Eurostat is still showing an estimated value of -0.4 %. It also shows all earlier figures as provisional but that is also true for the Netherlands, Romania and Spain. Bulgaria and Serbia show 2016 figures as provisional and most countries don't have a figure at all for Q4 yet. I will have more confidence in it when I see a non-estimated figure on Eurostat.

Having studied statistics as part of my degree I would say that it is a very rigorous and accurate science. Unfortunately there is a lot of scope for errors but, in general, they cannot be attributed to statistics itself but to how it is applied. If you supply inaccurate data then the statistics derived from that data will be equally inaccurate. Statistical methods were developed to answer very specific questions. Any statistical experiment has to be designed taking into account the statistical method that is going to be used to analyse it. All too often data is collected without considering the method to be employed and then a method is selected later to analyse the data. That is always a recipe for disaster.

Warwick

Mackie
Posts: 70
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2016 1:08 pm
Location: Cheshire / Hersonissos

Re: Alternative Facts?

Postby Mackie » Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:41 pm

Hard to believe any of the news and data you see at present. Bloomberg was reporting this morning that data will not be available until April !!

A couple of articles / video worth reading / watching on here though

http://greece.greekreporter.com/category/greek-news/


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