Thought we'd seen the back of him

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Kilkis
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby Kilkis » Sat Feb 18, 2017 2:54 pm

Maud wrote:...There was an interesting 'correction' made Radio 4's PM Programme yesterday. They said that a while ago they had reported that when the UK leaves the EU, pensioners living abroad would continue to be able to have their pensions paid abroad as usual. The comment yesterday said that they had made a mistake is stating that, and that of course nothing was certain until matters had been negotiated between the EU and the UK. - So much uncertainty for everyone just now!...


This issue is a lot more nuanced than they suggest. UK State Pensioners live all over the world and have their pensions paid so there is no reason why UK pensioners living in the EU shouldn't be paid when the UK leaves. The question is what is meant by the conditional phrase, "as usual"? UK pensioners living in the EU and in some other countries get their State Pension incremented every year in exactly the same way as those living in the UK. Many living in other countries do not. If "as usual" means that they will receive their pension by whatever payment means they receive it now, I don't see any reason at all why that should change. If, however, "as usual" means including annual increments then that is indeed uncertain.

It is worth noting that whether to maintain the increments or not is totally in the control of the UK government and does not depend on the negotiation with the EU. They are UK citizens paid a UK pension by the UK government based on their UK National Insurance contributions when they worked in the UK. What the EU decides to do about its retired citizens living in the UK has no effect on what is paid to UK citizens living in the EU. Unlike the case of the right of residency, where there is a question of leverage, i.e. we'll let yours stay if you let ours stay, that does not apply to the pension issue. If it wished the UK government could state immediately that it will maintain the increments and resolve the uncertainty, which begs the question, "Why aren't they doing so?" I suspect because they will use any excuse to stop the increments but I would be delighted to be proved wrong.

Warwick

peebee
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby peebee » Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:09 pm

Mackie wrote:I am actually very optimistic
Cheers

As am I.
I think some people (especially those who never experienced life before the EU existed) are petrified of being cut off from doing trade with the over-hyped (IMO) `single market', I am surprised how some of them ever summoned enough courage to let go of mummy's apron strings and leave home (maybe they haven't yet)
The UK has for many years been trading in this wonderful `single market' and running up a deficit that is increasing year on year.
The `single market' also has a decreasing share of trade within the world market.
I cannot see how importing more than you export to a failing organisation, at the expense of restricting your trade with the larger market, can be seen as a benefit.
Paying £12 billion pounds a year (net) for the privilege of doing so, is total madness IMO.
I have, as yet, not heard anyone who can offer one single good reason for remaining in this wonderful `club'.

Maud
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby Maud » Sat Feb 18, 2017 3:20 pm

I agree with you Warwick. I was just 'reporting' a comment made by the BBC. - And of course they were correct to make it clear that they cannot make any assurances about anything at all re Brexit!

YoMo2
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby YoMo2 » Sat Feb 18, 2017 4:27 pm

Would anyone care to define "hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit", because it seems to me people waffle on about one or the other without giving any thought to whether either phrase makes much sense.

And as usual, most posts on the subject of Brexit seem to be based on ideology rather than on any kind of facts.

Andrew
"It's all in the implementation"

Kilkis
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby Kilkis » Sat Feb 18, 2017 4:50 pm

YoMo2 wrote:Would anyone care to define "hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit", because it seems to me people waffle on about one or the other without giving any thought to whether either phrase makes much sense...


I don't know anymore than anyone else. It means whatever the person saying thinks it means. Based on the discussion that surrounds it, however, it seems to revolve around the issue of the single market and the customs union. Stay in them and it is "soft" leave them and it is "hard". People always seem to discuss it terms of whether you can stay in and still restrict movement, whether you can stay in without paying into the EU budget etc hence my comment above. They are all issues of the rules governing the EU and may be up for negotiation. You can negotiate all you want but it a fundamental property of a single market and a customs union that you cannot stay in and do independent trade deals. That is nothing to do with particular rules.

Warwick

Mackie
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby Mackie » Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:07 pm

To my simple mind:
Hard Brexit = trigger Article 50 now, buy everyone in the European pub a last round (a couple of years at least worth of full contributions + other future commitments already signed for) and hope the guys at the Pub give you a goodbye present.
Soft Brexit = take your time in developing a plan that does not exist or likely to exist until you are forced to, delay the trigger and hope the whole European club gets into deep trouble with a couple more countries leaving or coming close enough to leaving.
The French, Dutch & German elections will define the future no matter what the British plan is with regard to Europe.
:wink:

Tim
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby Tim » Sat Feb 18, 2017 5:19 pm

What a pointless intervention by this increasingly desperate sounding charlatan. A referendum was held, a decision was made, the government and both houses of Parliament have repeatedly vowed to abide by the decision. There is zero chance of 'the people' 'rising up' at the behest of this discredited former politician.

I found a lot of his remarks patronising and arrogant. I am neither ill-informed, nor misinformed. I voted Leave and would do so again tomorrow.

Like Mackie, I am optimistic.

Tim

bobscott
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby bobscott » Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:09 pm

[quote="Kilkis"] If it wished the UK government could state immediately that it will maintain the increments and resolve the uncertainty, which begs the question, "Why aren't they doing so?" I suspect because they will use any excuse to stop the increments but I would be delighted to be proved wrong.

Warwick[/quote

Spot on again Warwick. Just take a look at the way in which the Winter Fuel Payment issue was handled. Not just move the goal posts, but change the venue altogether, fudge the figures (especially for UK expats in France!) and then stop the payment. Stopping the uprating of the state retirement pension will save a helluva sight more money than stopping the WFP has. Got to be a dead cert I would say. Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Maud
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby Maud » Sat Feb 18, 2017 7:57 pm

I understand you sentiments Tim, and I assume that you, like me, do not have to worry about a few £'s extra on your living costs weekly. We also pay for private health care, so some of the problems with the NHS do not apply to us. (My new knee was done three weeks after seeing the consultant, rather than waiting for a year+ for it on the NHS).

The people Blair is targeting are the ones who will now struggle with rising costs and poor healthcare. They are the very people who thought Brexit was going to change things for the better almost immediately. Sadly these are the people who will change their minds about how they voted once the don't see these improvements in their own personal circumstances taking place. Not everyone can afford to take this 'temporary hit' with their finances.

As they say....timing is everything, especially in Politics. I reckon Blair is a master of it! He has waited until things are starting to 'bite' and has played his hand. I feel sure it won't make a difference to Brexit, but it will make many of the 'disenchanted' think again!

Tim
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby Tim » Sat Feb 18, 2017 9:00 pm

He certainly has an agenda, Maud. Mandelson's slimy fingers will be in there as well. The only thing these people are interested in is the accumulation, wielding and retention of power, and the wealth and trappings that come with it. Everything is fair game if the outcome leads to greater influence and greater proximity to the levers of power.

Tim

YoMo2
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby YoMo2 » Sun Feb 19, 2017 8:42 am

bobscott wrote:....... Just take a look at the way in which the Winter Fuel Payment issue was handled. Not just move the goal posts, but change the venue altogether, fudge the figures (especially for UK expats in France!) and then stop the payment. Stopping the uprating of the state retirement pension will save a helluva sight more money than stopping the WFP has. Got to be a dead cert I would say. Bob.


Absolutely right. No way the politicos will pass up a chance to screw the rich retirees living in luxury abroad.

Andrew
"It's all in the implementation"

YoMo2
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby YoMo2 » Sun Feb 19, 2017 8:46 am

Maud wrote:......He has waited until things are starting to 'bite' and has played his hand. I feel sure it won't make a difference to Brexit, but it will make many of the 'disenchanted' think again!


What exactly is starting to bite, and does whatever it is have anything to do with Brexit?

Last time I looked, practically nothing has actually changed yet, although every little negative occurence is routinely blamed on Brexit.

Andrew
"It's all in the implementation"

bettyboo
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby bettyboo » Sun Feb 19, 2017 10:22 am

I'm not a fan of the EU but to me any Brit living in the EU and being in favour of and actually voting for Brexit I can't fathom :) why vote for something which will/is going to create years of uncertainty and a lot of stress in some cases..

Selfish thoughts perhaps putting ones personal situation over their Country but if Brexit causes me any grief in the future will my country help me? I doubt it

TweetTweet
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Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby TweetTweet » Sun Feb 19, 2017 1:01 pm

The Uncertainty Principle comes to mind

https://www.theguardian.com/science/201 ... -principle

Absolutely *NOTHING* is permanent.

Humans are lucky because we (apparently) have the ability to change our conscientiousness.

Maud
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Location: S.W. England/ S.W. Crete.

Re: Thought we'd seen the back of him

Postby Maud » Sun Feb 19, 2017 3:30 pm

[quote="YoMo2"][quote="Maud"]......He has waited until things are starting to 'bite' and has played his hand. I feel sure it won't make a difference to Brexit, but it will make many of the 'disenchanted' think again![/quote]

What exactly is starting to bite, and does whatever it is have anything to do with Brexit?

Last time I looked, practically nothing has actually changed yet, although every little negative occurence is routinely blamed on Brexit.

Andrew[/quote]


Last week showed inflation figures up in the UK, and 'every day' food prices, (not just luxury ones), up as well. These are matters that are important to people who have to 'manage' their finances carefully Andrew. The increased food prices this time, are not 'seasonal ones' but ones created by the weaker pound and the cost of importing many items. One of the major reasons for increased inflation was the higher cost of fuel. Fuel is getting more expensive because of the drop in the value of the pound. The hauliers are putting up their prices to pay for the fuel. The shops are putting up their prices to pay the hauliers....and the consumer is faced with extra costs. There is a direct correlation between the reduced value of the £ since Brexit! - Hence, your question about things starting to 'bite' and Brexit.

Consumer confidence is starting to drop now everyone can see that Brexit is about to begin 'properly.' It is evident that people are worried about what is going to happen financially over the next couple of years. A survey, (and I know figures can be skewed depending on the questions asked) showed last week that consumers are starting to hang on to their money where possible. Many people are already noticing they are being faced with higher weekely bills. This uncertainty is not going to help the economy.....and it is all brought about by not knowing what is going to happen during and after Brexit.

Once everything settles down I have hopes that all will be well. - We have to be positive in such a situation. However, there is a rocky road ahead for a while, and I cannot understand why some people don't realise the problems this is going to create for the less well off in society.


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