CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

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BST
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby BST » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:57 pm

One more confirmed in Herakleion today related to the accountant who had it. So 4 in total tested and confirmed. All Herakleion...so far.

Kilkis
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Kilkis » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:30 pm

Great care is needed in interpretation of the word "positive" in the article. It means the number of people questioned who said that they had the symptoms. It does NOT MEAN that they have been tested for COVID-19 and the test result was positive.

We know from other regions in the world, where massive testing has been carried, out that the majority of patients who present with symptoms actually test negative for COVID-19 since the symptoms are so similar to many other cold/flue like viruses that are circulating widely in the population at this time of year. The number of people with the virus is certainly much higher than those who have been confirmed to have it, as shown in China, but I would be surprised if it is as high as the survey of symptoms suggests. In the UK for example as at 9am on 18 March 2020, 56,221 people had been tested. Of these people tested 4.7% (2,626) of cases were confirmed as positive. From Full Fact. It is not clear on what basis the UK are carrying out tests. Originally, during the containment phase, testing was largely used for "Track contacts, test, isolate" starting from known cases so you would expect a large number of negative results. More recently, accounting for the bulk of that 56,221 tests, I think they are mainly testing people with symptoms so the confirmation rate is low.

It is possible that it will be at those levels in a matter of days and I think their analysis is probably correct regarding the relative distribution of different areas of the country. That will only become clearer as the number grow. You cannot do statistics on samples of one.

Warwick

Carolina
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Carolina » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:12 pm

Agreed Wawick, it was a quick google translation (bad).

SatCure
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby SatCure » Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:32 pm

On March 19th it was announced in America that there's a potential cure for the c-virus.

Here is Trump's announcement: (at time 1:13.30)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSFBJZp ... .be&t=4201

It's an existing malaria drug called Chloroquine, so President Trump has ordered it to be released immediately to patients. No doubt it will be available globally within days.

Before you get too excited, note that the drug has potentially nasty side effects:-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroquine
This drug kills the virus within 6 days. Not many patients have been given it so far (fewer than 100) but it has been 100% effective, so there's little doubt that it works for most people. (I guess there will be a few people who are already seriously ill from other causes, whom the drug won't help.)

More info.
https://www.eutimes.net/2020/03/media-s ... ing-drugs/

https://dailycaller.com/2020/03/18/hydr ... ure-study/

According to the BBC: "Chloroquine has not been approved for treating coronavirus."

True but, in the USA, it doesn't need to be, Some time ago (a year or more) Trump issued the "Right to Try" bill, if my memory serves me. Basically, anyone at risk of dying can use any drug they fancy. Of course, it doesn't apply to people without symptoms.

I don't know what the situation is in Greece or the UK but you can be sure that there will be a public outcry if patients die who have not been given the drug.

Finally, there's an interesting explanation of the political implications:
https://prayingmedic.com/2020/03/18/tru ... nonavirus/

Martin

P.s. this drug is much milder than Mefloquine!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/h ... 42681.html

Kilkis
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Kilkis » Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:27 pm

An Indian hospital has successfully treated some Italian patients using a cocktail of two anti-HIV drugs, Lopinavir and Ritonavir, the anti Malaria drug, chloroquine, mentioned in Martin's post and oseltamivir, which they had previously used to treat an outbreak of swine flu whose symptoms are similar to COVID-19. All these are existing drugs that are approved for treating other conditions so it should be easier to get approval for them to treat COVID-19. Largely you only need to consider effectiveness rather than safety, although the use in combination may need some safety checks.

Warwick

bobscott
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby bobscott » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:32 pm

Kilkis wrote:An Indian hospital has successfully treated some Italian patients using a cocktail of two anti-HIV drugs, Lopinavir and Ritonavir, the anti Malaria drug, chloroquine, mentioned in Martin's post and oseltamivir, which they had previously used to treat an outbreak of swine flu whose symptoms are similar to COVID-19. All these are existing drugs that are approved for treating other conditions so it should be easier to get approval for them to treat COVID-19. Largely you only need to consider effectiveness rather than safety, although the use in combination may need some safety checks.

Warwick


If all of this is true (and I am not suggesting Warwick or Martin or anyone else is peddling untruths) then there needs to be an urgent explanation from the various governments why these things are not being tried. Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

SatCure
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby SatCure » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:43 pm

bobscott wrote:
Kilkis wrote:If all of this is true (and I am not suggesting Warwick or Martin or anyone else is peddling untruths)

I'm not peddling anything. :wink: I'm merely reporting facts and pointing you to the articles/video so you can use your own discernment.

I've just been told by a local person that Greek scientists are also close to developing a treatment. I *think* she said that it's based on local herbs - but don't quote me on that.

Bottom line: a vaccine is probably a year away but, in the meantime, there's an excellent prospect of effective treatment for those who need it.

Clio
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Clio » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:49 pm

Re the link
https://prayingmedic.com/2020/03/18/tru ... nonavirus/

Good grief Martin, where did you dig that one out from?

……".the President appears confident, professional and compassionate".

?????

"If he is a man of courage, ingenuity, and foresight…"

If anybody ever mistakes Trump for such a man well, then I am, as a different class of American said, Maria of Romania.

SatCure
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby SatCure » Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:53 pm

Did you watch the video? Watch the video without prejudice. Use your discernment. Don't allow the Media to tell you what to think.

Kilkis
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Kilkis » Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:39 pm

Yes I watched the video of Trump. It brought back memories of Denis Thatcher who was renowned for staying in the background and not saying anything. When questioned about it he reportedly said: ""Better keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool than open it and remove all doubt." There are many versions of the quote attributed to a variety of people including Abraham Lincoln. Trump could learn a lot from him.

The following is from the Praying Medic link:

    Given those numbers, the hysteria over Covid-19 seems unwarranted. So what’s the deal?

Watch the report being broadcast by Sky, filmed in an Italian hospital at the heart of the outbreak there, with interviews with the doctors having to try and treat patients and you get an idea of "What the deal is". It is a classic pandemic. Everything is absolutely fine until it isn't and then it is very much not fine. It transitioned from fine to not fine in a very short space of time. One day you have a full stock of all the PPE you could ever need and a couple of days later it is all gone and you have no idea when you will get more. Patients are beign trated on trolleys in every room and corridor in the hospital. Cemeteries are closed because they cannot cope with the number of burials. Bodies are being stacked up in churches, because they cannot be buried, until the army comes and carts them away, to where god only knows. I suppose it was all staged by the media somewhere with actors playing doctors so they can frighten everybody?

The stock markets are crashing because speculators are selling anything they can to cut their losses. Typically they borrow money in order to leverage their positions to make more profit. They put shares they own as collateral against the borrowing and use the money raised to buy more shares. As long as shares go up they profit more by the leverage ratio. When they fall they lose more by the same factor. As the shares start to fall they liquidate as fast as they can but in sudden crises there are often no buyers. Brokers will eventually make a margin call and if they cannot repay the money they have borrowed the broker simple takes the shares and they lose everything. To avoid that happening they liquidate anything they can. They know that shares will eventually recover so if they can hold onto some of them they will limit their losses. In normal investment crashes some things go up when others go down as investors move their investments from what seems dangerous to something that seems safe. For example shares might go down while bonds and/or precious metals might go up as a safe haven. In this crash everything is going down so it is certainly mainly speculators not investors.

Warwick

Carolina
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Carolina » Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:11 pm

Two new confirmed virus cases on Crete.

One is connected to the first case in Heraklion, a man connected via a close circle of friends.

The second new case is a woman from Makriyialos, Lassithi.

https://flashnews.gr/post/420065/dyo-ne ... a-sto-nhsi

Keltz
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Keltz » Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:04 pm

SatCure wrote:Did you watch the video? Watch the video without prejudice. Use your discernment. Don't allow the Media to tell you what to think.


Here are some verifiable facts about Trump "Iran, the devastation caused by COVID-19 has been aided by the US embargo, which (despite the bluster of the Iranian government) has raised living costs and affected medical supplies. The US has responded to a rocket attack on US forces in Iraq, with an announcement of further sanctions, prompting Bernie Sanders to tweet ‘Iran is facing a catastrophic toll from the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. sanctions should not be contributing to this humanitarian disaster." ...not the action of a compassionate man.

When there is a vaccine for covid-19 we will soon know about it. Posting possible 'cures' from unnamed sources and citing religious web sites as 'fact' is irresponsible.

Kilkis
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Kilkis » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:07 am

I've watched some of the WHO news conferences. The WHO is in an unenviable position. It is the lead advice worldwide on the pandemic but it relies heavily on countries to fund its operations, although it does get some money from donations, so it is disinclined to criticise the actions of any country. In particular I have watched closely the face of Dr Mike Ryan whenever he is asked questions about different country's actions, or more often inactions. His replies are very neutral and factual but I see a man who is screaming inside. He has been in the forefront of the WHO response to epidemics and pandemics for over 25 years. He has a very close acquaintanceship with death. I think that I see a man who would say: "Do something. Do more. Do it sooner. Stop messing about." except everyone of those statements would have the word "Effing" in it somewhere. His actual message is don't try to get it right because you won't succeed. When you first spot the virus start running and run as fast as you can. The longer you spend analysing and deciding the worse it will be. Governments everywhere don't seem to have understood that message.

I am totally appalled by the way some of the media present the information but I am a million times more appalled by those who think it will all be over in a couple of weeks. In 1914 the message was that the war will be over by Christmas. Everybody believed it. How many died over the followign 4 years? After ten years of Troika imposed austerity, when the curve ramps up in Greece, as I am sure it will despite the actions so far, the Greek health service will be overwhelmed in hours rather than days. As an example, in Italy, 12 percent of all detected COVID-19 cases and 16 percent of all hospitalized patients were admitted to the intensive care unit. How many ICU beds with full respirator capability does Greece have? Those who become ill enough to require full respiratory support but don't get it simply die. Not all those who get full respiratory support survive. When there aren't enough places available those with the lowest chance of survival, i.e. people like me, will simply be left to die if we are unlucky enough to catch the virus and develop viral pneumonia/ARDS.

The numbers, while still uncertain, are known with a lot more certainty than they were a couple of months ago and they don't make pretty reading. The vast majority of countries seem to fit a curve of doubling every 3 days. That means if you start with 1 case the whole of Greece becomes infected in 70 days. Initially Greece seemed to be on a doubling every 2 days which means if you start with 1 case the whole of Greece becomes infected in 46 days but it does seem to be having some success in slowing the rate, i.e. increasing the doubling time. Obviously there must come a point when the rate slows down simply because virtually everybody you meet will already have it but that only happens when a very large proportion of the population is infected. Also Greece is low down on the curve at present so it is difficult to tell exactly which curve it is on. This graph illustrates the situation very simply.

I have also noticed that many web sites that are promoting the idea that cures have already been found are typically quite strongly anti-vaccine sites. That worries me. Everybody has an agenda. Russia is now strongly promoting the idea that the USA and the UK deliberately developed the virus and infected people in China with it. There is a lot of fake news out there.

Warwick

evansmr1
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby evansmr1 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:35 am

Kilkis wrote a lot.

At times a few of y our posts are good and informative.
However, this last post of yours is stupid and unnecessary. Are you trying to drive more fear into the member/readers of this forum?. Have you nothing better to do?. You must have spent hours reading all sorts of alternative papers etc. before keyboard taping on your PC.

We all know the problems of this Virus. I would estimated that at least 90% of members/readers are well past the age of 60, most probably over 70 years of age. We are all well aware of the precautions that we must take. So stop writing rubbish that may well upset folk.

If you have nothing better to do write something that will uplift the Readers.
Mike
=============
Sic parvis magnaike

altohb
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby altohb » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:27 pm

Unnecessary. If you don't like what Kilkis or anyone else posts, don't read it - in the immortal phrase, scroll on by. Some of us are interested in the minutiae of this situation, some are not. Some of us are scared witless, some are not. Please be kind - no-one needs any more negativity; there is quite enough about already.


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