CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

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Toebs
Posts: 192
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Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Toebs » Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:48 pm

Morning.

As an example, in Italy, 12 percent of all detected COVID-19 cases and 16 percent of all hospitalized patients were admitted to the intensive care unit.


I may be wrong, but I suspect the infection rate is much higher than the detection rate. To the extent this is true, percentages are misleading. However, I think there is a solution to this, which is to use absolute numbers. After all, the numbers of beds in a health care system is approximately known, so we can work with absolute numbers and make judgements of health care availability.

How many ICU beds with full respirator capability does Greece have? Those who become ill enough to require full respiratory support but don't get it simply die. Not all those who get full respiratory support survive. When there aren't enough places available those with the lowest chance of survival, i.e. people like me, will simply be left to die if we are unlucky enough to catch the virus and develop viral pneumonia/ARDS.


I could be wrong - I stopped following daily news back in mid-Feb, so I've missed a lot of this, but I've also missed a vast amount of hype - but I understand CV19 is dangerous to people who are over 70 and frail. People vulnerable enough that it doesn't take much to be fatal.

Assuming for one moment this is correct, we can observe the number of people in this catagories in any country is in the "millions" range (tens of millions in the USA) and there's no health care system in the world which can provide support for any reasonable fraction of them becoming significantly ill concurently.

Your earlier observation about a pandema being absolutely fine until it's not I think correct, and of course it echos the description of bankruptcy : it goes very slowly, and then all of a sudden.

The numbers, while still uncertain, are known with a lot more certainty than they were a couple of months ago and they don't make pretty reading. The vast majority of countries seem to fit a curve of doubling every 3 days. That means if you start with 1 case the whole of Greece becomes infected in 70 days. Initially Greece seemed to be on a doubling every 2 days which means if you start with 1 case the whole of Greece becomes infected in 46 days but it does seem to be having some success in slowing the rate, i.e. increasing the doubling time. Obviously there must come a point when the rate slows down simply because virtually everybody you meet will already have it but that only happens when a very large proportion of the population is infected. Also Greece is low down on the curve at present so it is difficult to tell exactly which curve it is on. This graph illustrates the situation very simply.


My take on this is that, because there is no vaccine, it's similar in nature to the Ebola outbreaks in Africa.

When you have a vaccine, you give it to everyone, and that solves the problem.

When you do not have a vaccine, and this I understand is how the Ebola outbreaks were contained, you have to identify everyone who is infected and isolate them. You do this firstly by mass testing and secondly by tracing back the steps of everyone you find who is infected, and isolating everyone they've been in touch with.

If you do not do this, because there is no vaccine, everyone and their dog is infected, and the nature of the rate of infection is basically that of the "doubling problem", something all software engineers know without thinking about because they work with base 2 all the time.

Large scale self-isolation, closures of public places, etc, can support finding and isolating by reducing the rate at which contagion occurs. There's a contest between the rate at which you can test and isolate infected and find those they've been in touch with, and the rate of contagion.

If you do not attempt to find and isolate the infected, or if you *cannot*, because it's too late and the numbers of infected are now too large for the resources available for this approach, then you are accepting that all or almost all people will become infected, because there is no vaccine.

Where this is a "doubling problem", and here we're talking about the vulnerable groups being the old who are weak, we're talking millions of people and there will be a sharp transition between "okay" and "not okay", when we go in a couple of days from a number of infected which can be supported by the health care system to a number which cannot be supported by the health care system (and which a couple of days later becomes a number much, much larger than can be supported by the health care system).

So, logically, as far as I can tell, what need to happen is a massive effort now to reduce the rate of contagion (closure of public places, curfew, quarantine for newcomers, etc), and a massive test, detect, backtrack and isolate effort, and then once the rate of new infections is basically zero, lift the restrictions (except for quarantine for newcomers).

It's that or a significant fatality rate among the entire population of frail over 70s. This entails their deaths, massive and widespread emotional loss, and the resultant economic disruption caused by people dealing with this.

I think given the infection rates I've seen, and the lack of mass testing, most or all Western countries have (not particularly deliberately) opted for the significant fatality rate.

I have also noticed that many web sites that are promoting the idea that cures have already been found are typically quite strongly anti-vaccine sites. That worries me. Everybody has an agenda. Russia is now strongly promoting the idea that the USA and the UK deliberately developed the virus and infected people in China with it. There is a lot of fake news out there.


Best thing to do is get some facts (the tricky bit - a good bullshit detector is required), and then think for yourself.

One irony here, if you'll permit me dark humour, is that the dead in the UK will be disproportionalty Brexiters! if this had happened a few years ago, Brexit would not have happened!
Last edited by Toebs on Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Marooned
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:03 am

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Marooned » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:17 pm

We are certainly in a strange position right now. I have not been in Greece very long, so I have no idea what to expect in regards to the health care system. I did visit St George's a few times when I had a small health problem, and the staff were excellent, but I probably wouldn't want to be there during the Coronavirus outbreak. Lets get that curve flattened...

I think that Cretans have been handling the situation pretty well, but for the most part, we have not been hit hard (yet) out of sheer luck. Something to be grateful for - we witnessed China and Italy and were able to start social distancing earlier on the curve.

On the other hand, the amount of testing in Greece is minimal, and this gives a false sense of security. The amount of "Confirmed Cases" is very low, but estimates are that the actual amount of cases is more like 2000-3000. I wish that more people would report the estimates, because the low amount of "Confirmed Cases" can cause everyone to become complacent. For example, we know that the virus is in Chania (the infected soldier), but there isn't a single confirmed case yet (in the Chania region). Sure the incubation period is long, but I think the lack of testing is making the issue worse.

Here's a good (although already a few days old) article, in case you missed it:
https://greece.greekreporter.com/2020/0 ... italy-now/

So, while South Korea has drive through facilities, here we have a 40eur+ price tag. I'm not assigning blame, but making the contrast. It is funny to see that even countries like USA / Canada are struggling to do testing as well, so it's not as though this is a Greek-specific problem.

Looks like we will have to watch the amount of hospitalizations / unrecovered cases (I work in a corporate office, we focus on finding nice ways to say unpleasant things) to figure out the extent of our exposure on this island.

Kilkis
Posts: 12213
Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Kilkis » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:51 pm

I wrote what I wrote, Evansmr1, in response to Satcures posts and his flippant, "My own intuitive feeling is that this problem will be gone before end of April." in another thread. If people don't take this seriously, and a lot aren't, a lot of people are going to die unnecessarily.

I watch direct reports showing coffins piled up in chapels in Italy with no chance of burial, doctors collapsing under the strain of the workload and patients undergoing critical care treatment with full ventilation on trolleys in corridors and waiting rooms. I watch the president of Italy recommending that everybody in the world to watch the Sky programme so they know what it is really like. I read the NICE guidelines, newly issued to all medical professionals in the UK, that effectively say when you haven't got enough critical care facilities allocate it to those who are most likely to benefit from it, although couched in more medical jargon. Italy has been making that decision for days now.

Simultaneously I see people packing into pubs in the UK because they want to support their local businesses, people gathering together socially in large groups in parks and public spaces, Elon Musk tweeting his millions of followers that children are immune to COVID-19 and people like Satcure saying its not a problem, we have a cure and it will all be over soon.

You believe whichever of those messages you like but reality will continue whatever you think. I really hope that the actions Greece has taken will be enough to prevent it progressing as fast as in Italy. I really do hope that the outcome is not as bad as in Italy. I have a vested interest in that I am in the at risk group. But I also know that Lombardy has one of the best healthcare systems in Europe and Greece has one of the worst. Ten years of cuts, underfunding, equipment not being repaired, healthcare professionals leaving the country in large number to work elsewhere and a fair degree of corruption do not foster an effective healthcare system.

Gavrilakis private hospital in Chania has a total of 80 beds that includes 5 ICU beds. Chania general hospital has 450 beds so, if the ratio is about the same, it would have about 28 ICU beds, although I suspect less. There may be a few others around in other private clinics but Gavrilakis is the biggest private clinic and many others specialise in areas where an ICU bed is unlikely to be needed. Probably there are 40 ICU beds in Chania to provide respiratory support for the whole of the Chania NOMOS. It might be as high as 50 but I wouldn't bank on it. You do the maths.

If what I write terrifies people into reacting then good. I make no apologies. If it turns out that all the evidence is wrong and it proves me to be a complete idiot then wonderful, I will be delighted to be judged a complete idiot. I will embrace it and own it. In the meantime for god's sake take it seriously. Listen to the people who are living through it.

Warwick

BST
Posts: 588
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:29 pm

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby BST » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:01 pm

FROM HANIA NEWS - Just the cities??

"Universal ban civil traffic will announce today, Sunday, in the afternoon, the standard information, the deputy minister for Civil Protection and Crisis Management, Nikos Chardalias, according to a report of in.gr .

The new measures, according to the same report, include the operation of banks with security personnel but also the submission of SMSs (mobile messages) to a specific number indicating where they will be directed - through a special form.

It is an SMS submission system with specific options (ed: job, supermarket, pharmacy, etc.) that was developed in secret by the Ministry of Digital Government. The aim of the government is thus to stop the unjustified movements and exits of citizens, which have been in place in recent days, despite the relevant instructions and appeals by the competent authorities.

According to a report by Vassilis Lambropoulos at in.gr :

"The number will reportedly be 13033 with the name and statement of the applicant for the purpose of moving. If you are going to work, for essentials or to the pharmacy. Each moving object will have a code that will be typed.

Of course, there should be clarification as to the movements that can be made. E.g. whether it is forbidden to take a short walk or drive to a specific destination in addition to the above.

And the questions are a lot about everyday habits. E.g. about whether one can go to their parents' home or see their children or take their dog for a walk.

The above model is used in France by submitting an email indicating the purpose of the move. "
Source: in.gr
Vasilis Lampropoulos

bobscott
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Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 5:36 pm
Location: Kokkino Horio

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby bobscott » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:09 pm

Toebs wrote:
One irony here, if you'll permit me dark humour, is that the dead in the UK will be disproportionalty Brexiters! if this had happened a few years ago, Brexit would not have happened!


B******s! Exceedingly bad taste. Go back to whence you came. Signed 'A socialist octogenarian remainer' (just for your statistical information).
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

RetiredRailwayWorker
Posts: 41
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:20 pm

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby RetiredRailwayWorker » Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:40 pm

bobscott wrote:
Toebs wrote:
One irony here, if you'll permit me dark humour, is that the dead in the UK will be disproportionalty Brexiters! if this had happened a few years ago, Brexit would not have happened!


B******s! Exceedingly bad taste. Go back to whence you came. Signed 'A socialist octogenarian remainer' (just for your statistical information).

Quite agree not only is it in bad bad taste but exceedingly stupid !! Does the poster think Remain voters and are immune from catching the virus?

Toebs
Posts: 192
Joined: Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:42 pm

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Toebs » Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:22 pm

bobscott wrote:
Toebs wrote:
One irony here, if you'll permit me dark humour, is that the dead in the UK will be disproportionalty Brexiters! if this had happened a few years ago, Brexit would not have happened!


B******s! Exceedingly bad taste. Go back to whence you came. Signed 'A socialist octogenarian remainer' (just for your statistical information).


I did say "dark humour".

I may be wrong, but I think this is being missed, and people are taking this as if it were written seriously.

I could imagine for some there is no humour at all in any serious situation, and any such humour is roundly disparaged and excoriated as being in profoundly bad taste, but I think that is not true for all, and it is one of the ways in which we cope with difficult times.

My apologies to those who are offended, although I would ask you to be clear this is dark humour, and not something mistakenly taken seriously.
Last edited by Toebs on Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Keltz
Posts: 224
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:53 am

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Keltz » Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:04 pm

Toebs wrote:
... the dead in the UK will be...


Disgusting behaviour on a public forum. You don't even live here and many of us have family in the UK we are worried about. Go away!

bobscott
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Location: Kokkino Horio

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby bobscott » Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:57 am

Toebs wrote:
My apologies to those who are offended, although I would ask you to be clear this is dark humour, and not something mistakenly taken seriously.


To pick up on your favourite phrase ('I may be wrong') I am sorry to say you ARE (IMHO) wrong this time. We all like a bit of fun and humour is something which appears in abundance on this forum; but you overstepped the mark. Apology accepted, but please think again the next time. Bob. :(
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

SatCure
Posts: 1973
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Location: Apokoronas

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby SatCure » Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:19 am

Someone emailed me a link to a BBC article:

https://www.bbc.com/news/51980731

Just think logically for a second: in the last 60 years we have pumped more than 100 TRILLION dollars into "cancer research". And there's still no cure for ANY form of cancer! Does that scenario seem even remotely likely? Likewise illnesses such as diabetes, Multiple Sclerosis and many more. No cure. Just medication. These people are sick (and I'm not referring to the patients).

Anyway, back to the BBC report: "Chloroquine seems to block the coronavirus in lab studies. There's some anecdotal evidence from doctors saying it has appeared to help," says James Gallagher, BBC health correspondent."

"Anecdotal evidence." That's just an outright lie. PLEASE, look at this graph:
https://twitter.com/MichaelCoudrey/stat ... 2417577986

Chloroquine Cure has been Known but Suppressed for at least 14 Years!
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020 ... ince-2005/

Please understand that almost ALL mainstream media are propaganda outlets that are controlled by bad people. I include in that the big pharma companies whose bottom line is profit. As a result, they have zero morals. They want us to be ill and to be locked into repeat prescriptions. They do not want cures. Wherever possible, cures are suppressed. I repeat: these companies have NO morals. Zero. Oh, they pretend to care but actually they don't care if we die, as long as we do it slowly while taking lots of expensive medication. You can see that all around you. There are no cures available - only medication to alleviate symptoms.

And before you jump in and say "but cancer can sometimes be CURED by chemotherapy or radiotherapy or surgery" let me point out that all of those "treatments" have nasty side effects. For example, surgical removal of the thyroid leaves you dependent on medication for the rest of your life. Chemo- and radiotherapy damage your tissues and immune system in various ways, leaving you dependent on medication, including pain killers, antidepressants - you name it.

So, naturally, these companies are fighting against the Hydroxychloroquine plus Azithromycin treatment because it will reduce their profits - not only because it kills most corona viruses but also because it defeats some forms of cancer!

Do you see why you can't believe the Mainstream Media?

I forget the name but one of Hitler's cohorts said something like "if you repeat a lie enough times, people will believe it". There was another one along the lines of "if you have to tell a lie, make it a big one." That philosophy was used for the JFK assassination and the 9/11 demolitions. In addition, the CIA developed a clever phrase to put down dissenters: they called them "conspiracy theorists". This was deliberate brainwashing to hide the truth. Anyone coming close to the truth must be a "conspiracy theorist". (If you repeat a lie enough times...)

Anyway, I rarely visit this forum but I came here to provide hope. Please don't attack me for this. "Don't shoot the messenger." I've been researching this stuff for decades so when I state "I think that" or "my intuition tells me", it's based on a LOT of research. For the most part, I can't easily provide proof because the powers that be make sure that it gets deleted or suppressed. But I know what I know and I'm happy to share it with anyone who is open-minded.

Marooned
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:03 am

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Marooned » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:10 pm

I don't think that anyone is profiting off of the Coronavirus, except the hoarders who are reselling masks and hand sanitizer. It would be in all of our best interests for the virus to be wiped away immediately. People aren't even supposed to go outside, it's not good for the economy.

If anything, big pharma would profit from people purchasing untested drugs, blocking the usage of Chloroquine isn't a technique to make more money. Chloroquine is a nasty drug, and you don't want to take it on a whim.

https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/art ... -422X-2-69
This article which is being used as evidence of the effectiveness of Chloroquine is a test under lab conditions, not a test involving humans. Scientists will not endorse something which has only been proven in a test tube.

I do hope that a treatment is found soon, but it makes sense to wait until something is tested. However if you happen to have a bottle of Chloroquine tablets lying around, up to you if you want to take it. I would worry that the side effects of Chloroquine could cause more complications, which is not ideal for the demographics that are hit hardest by this virus.

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Kilkis » Mon Mar 23, 2020 12:41 pm

First the reality. A cocktail of drugs including anti-malarial, anti-HIV and anti-bacterial have (apparently?) proved effective in a very limited number of cases. The French trial is the biggest and that only included 20 patients. I think the Indian result was from two patients. There are some anecdotal reports from the USA also based on very small samples. I agree these offer hope, I agree hope is needed and I personally hope that a proven effective cure is found very soon, because a vaccine is a long way down the road, but to claim that there is now a proven cure, that it is approved and that it will be in use immediately is an outright lie. As far as I can see the BBC presented the information as it is, a possibility of a cure.

I don't know if Breitbart issue a printed edition but if they did I wouldn't even use it to wipe my ... even if there is a toilet roll shortage. I do find a beautiful resonance in referencing Hitler and Breitbart in the same post. Your quote is attributed to Goebbels but that is disputed. It derives from a completely different expression of the same idea in Mein Kampf about the Jews. Clearly Breitbart has learned a lot from its heroes.

Warwick

PS I used (apparently?) above because the study is so small. Some people recover anyway so, with such a small sample, it is possible that some recoveries were not attributable to the treatment. I am not trying to say that the cocktail treatments are not effective but that we won't know for certain until they are used on a larger number of patients. Since it is likely that there will soon be a significant number of patients who develop extreme symptoms and who cannot receive ventilation support, because it is all in use, I can't see any harm in giving them the treatment in the hope that it will be effective. I would certainly be willing to take it if it was the only option. It is true that these drugs are approved for the treatment of other diseases so can be at least presumed relatively safe.

tomcourtney
Posts: 39
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:15 pm

If Trump says it ....

Postby tomcourtney » Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:13 pm


Keltz
Posts: 224
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:53 am

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby Keltz » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:30 pm

Not sure if you agree with what Trump says Tom and are posting for that reason as the Tweet alongside the video says...

"If Trump is going to keep lying like he has been every day on stuff this important, we should, all of us, stop broadcasting it. "

Yet It broadcasts it, a not uncommon way on social media used to spread gossip. You have now also broadcast it across Living in Crete forum.

Similarly Marooned who has also just joined this forum and may not be aware of implying misinformation says "I do hope that a treatment is found soon, but it makes sense to wait until something is tested. However if you happen to have a bottle of Chloroquine tablets lying around, up to you if you want to take it." Perhaps suggesting to some it may be ok.

I think when it comes to medical advice this is not the place to give it.

tomcourtney
Posts: 39
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 5:15 pm

Re: CoronaVirus now confirmed on Crete

Postby tomcourtney » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:03 pm

We could do with that reporter here as our media is giving him an easy time.

My wife is working nights as an emergency department nurse in the highest risk hospital in the highest risk city London.
The hospital is overflowing with Covid19 (Corona) virus patients.
I am furious, as are the UK and European health professionals, with Johnson’s delayed measures and how weak they are. Also disappointed with the public’s response, still gathering in groups in parks etc.
My wife comes home regularly in tears at the lack of protective equipment available consequently Doctors and nurses believe they are probably spreading the virus through the hospitals.

The Greek measures taken look much better than our soft approach.


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