Coronavirus, what happens next

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SatCure
Posts: 1963
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2007 9:57 pm
Location: Apokoronas

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby SatCure » Sat Apr 25, 2020 8:39 pm

Here's an interesting report from two doctors working in the field. (I listened at 1.25 speed, since it's a bit slow.) See what you think about their conclusions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=xfLVxx_lBLU

Also, just received 2 minutes ago from George Atsalakis "Tax Oasis" in Xaniá:

The Greek government announced on Thursday that all the restrictions imposed
on the Greek public in the effort to combat the coronavirus epidemic will be
extended until May 4th.

Government spokesman Stelios Petsas said that the exact timeline for the
easing of the measures will be announced next week. He added that Prime
Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will address the nation to explain how society
and the economy will gradually return to normality again.

"The objective of the confinement measures is not to remain in a glass bowl,
stuck in our homes. The objective is to take our lives back and win back our
way of life, which was temporarily deprived of us by this cunning and
invisible enemy," Petsas said.

The Minister of Tourism said that Greece will only have a three-month
tourist season this year, between July and September, but added that if the
situation develops positively, then the "shoulder season" months of October
and November might see an increased number of tourists in the country.

However, the biggest challenge for the tourism-dependent country will be to
determine exactly who will be able to enter Greece and how.


My (George) opinion is the following:

The situation with tourism is very uncertain. The tourism now is dependent
on the flights.

If the planes are to fly with empty seats due to social distancing, there will be
very few tourists to come in Greece.

If the airplanes fly with no empty seats, there are hopes for the tourism
after middle June. A rapid test is needed in order that the planes fly with no
empty seats.

If an accurate rapid test will be applied and the planes are in full, then
there are hopes tourists will come in Greece from July because Greece is
considering the safest destination from covd-19 aspect.

Also, tourists that may have been planned to visit Spain, Italy, Turkey,
probably will visit Greece this year as the safest destination.

So, we are waiting information about the rapid test and if there will be
flights with empty seats due to the social distance.
__

And a little perspective: there have been no new cases identified on Crete for almost 3 weeks.
14 people overall were identified and recovered. One German visitor died from "complications due to coronavirus".
I think that means that he sneezed while driving.

Kilkis
Posts: 12192
Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Kilkis » Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:37 pm

I think they are right. It would be a good idea if the USA did absolutely nothing. No lockdown, no social distancing just carry on as normal. That would give us a baseline for what happens if you do nothing. It would be very useful to compare the outcome there with countries that did take these measures to varying degrees. Trump wants to close America to anyone coming in from outside so the rest of the world could do the same thing to America. That way if it turns out that the "do nothing" route isn't wonderful at least it will only affect America. A good scientific experiment. I wholeheartedly support it.

Warwick

Marooned
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:03 am

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Marooned » Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:44 pm

SatCure wrote:Here's an interesting report from two doctors working in the field. (I listened at 1.25 speed, since it's a bit slow.) See what you think about their conclusions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=xfLVxx_lBLU



These fellows are running a chain of private hospitals: https://acceleratedurgentcare.com/

Of course they're upset due to lowered business, as many people are afraid to go to the hospital at all, for conditions unrelated to c19. I would prefer if they would assure people that they can safely go to the hospital, instead of going for the more salacious route of twisting up their "data" and downplaying the seriousness of the virus. They come up with a mortality rate of 0.03% (he didn't say percent, but I assume that's what he meant at 5:40). I would rather trust the mortality rate determined in Germany, where testing is more robust (1.2%).

ros21m
Posts: 167
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2018 9:32 pm
Location: Kerasia.

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby ros21m » Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:32 pm

Marooned, sorry I clicked on the link & my virus wall jumped into play, so didn't get to see it. Which country are they in Greece or UK?

Kilkis
Posts: 12192
Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Kilkis » Sun Apr 26, 2020 5:45 pm

Marooned wrote:...They come up with a mortality rate of 0.03% (he didn't say percent, but I assume that's what he meant at 5:40). I would rather trust the mortality rate determined in Germany, where testing is more robust (1.2%).


Anyone who is trying to undersell the seriousness of COVID-19, and there are many of them, quotes extremely low mortality rates. They want it as low or lower than seasonal flu because we don't take any drastic action against that so they can argue we shouldn't take any drastic action against this pandemic. They seem to have no evidence for the figures they quote just a quasi-religious belief. I am sure that they are correct that the mortality rate is lower than any country is currently quoting, because the number of tests being performed relative to the population size is low everywhere, but I see no evidence that it is as low as they say.

Every year CDC estimates the number of deaths in the USA from seasonal flu. That estimate varies between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. Part of that variation is that each year is different and part is due to uncertainty in the calculation, i.e. in any particular year the uncertainty range would be much smaller but somewhere inside the bigger range. Those figures are for a 95 % confidence range. So far in America there has been 54,000 known deaths from COVID-19. We know from other countries, which are ahead of the USA, that the distribution is roughly normal so typically you get as many deaths on the downward curve as on the upward side. That would suggest an eventual total of 108,000 if America is already at the peak but, looking at their data, I suspect it has not yet reached the peak so probably more than 108,000. I think that figure only includes identified cases and, as the UK and other countries are finding, there are many other COVID-19 deaths in the community where the patient never gets to hospital to be counted. Whitty estimates the true death toll will be at least 50 % more which would suggest 162,000. Also the USA has practised some form of pretty strict lockdown in all states that have been most seriously affected so that is a suppressed figure not what would happen with no controls. We do not know how big the number would be without controls but Whitty estimates, for the UK, that quite a small percentage of the population has been infected, perhaps 20 % due to the effectiveness of the controls. That would suggest that the total number killed would be 5 times bigger if it went unchecked, e.g. 810,000 for America. If that estimate is correct it would make it the biggest cause of death ahead of heart disease. It would also have raised the annual death rate by almost 30 %. Obviously just estimates but probably more valid than their sales pitch.

They are in California, Ros21m, which is a state that has implemented pretty rapid and effective controls to suppress the spread of the virus.

Warwick

Kilkis
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Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Kilkis » Sun Apr 26, 2020 11:43 pm

There is a very good Horizon Special programme that looks at all aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular there is a mathematical look at the early stages starting about 12:30 into the video. It compares the number of death due to COVID-19 with other viruses like SARS, MERS and Ebola. As little as 20 days after the start of the outbreak it is obvious that COVID-19 is behaving completely differently from those other outbreaks. That should have been a strong warning to those taking decisions. A couple of other interesting facts:

The best estimate is that R0 for COVID-19 is around 2.5 with no mitigation while for seasonal flu it is around 1.3. While that seems a small difference it is very significant. Starting with 1 case with an R0 of 1.3 after 10 cycles around 15 people are infected while with an R0 of 2.5 after 10 cycles nearly 15,000 people are infected.

Death rates for seasonal flu are often quoted as the number who die divided by the population. This give rise to a very low number of 0.01 %. I suspect the California doctors were taking this figure and saying that if COVID-19 is a bit bigger we can assume 0.03 %. Unfortunately this analysis is wrong. Because seasonal flu, in whatever variety, has been around for a long time and many people have already had it and some people also get vaccinated there is a lot of immunity in the population so the infection rate for seasonal flu is quite low, e.g. around 10 % of the population. If you divide the number who die by the number who catch it the real death rate is around 0.1 %. At the start of the outbreak nobody had any immunity to COVID-19 so without mitigation it is likely almost everybody would catch it. If the California doctors' guess that COVID-19 is about 3 times as lethal as seasonal flu that would make an expected death rate of 0.3 % or almost 200,000 in the UK and about 33,000 in Greece if no mitigating measures were taken.

Warwick

paul g
Posts: 212
Joined: Sun Jan 18, 2009 9:20 pm
Location: Nr. Kato Gouves

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby paul g » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:04 am

There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics.


Mark Twain.

Kamisiana
Posts: 452
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:06 pm

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Kamisiana » Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:19 am

For anyone interested calculations and numbers, Asteroid (52768)1998 OR2 is due to fly past Earth on April 29th at a distance of 6.3 million Km and a speed of 31.320 Km per hour
An explanation of calculating the position of an Asteroid here. :P

https://phys.libretexts.org/Bookshelves ... ics_(Tatum)/10%3A_Computation_of_an_Ephemeris/10.07%3A_Calculating_the_Position_of_a_Comet_or_Asteroid

Kilkis
Posts: 12192
Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Kilkis » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:04 pm

paul g wrote:There are lies, there are damn lies and then there are statistics.


Mark Twain.


Mostly people don't understand statistics. It is simply a branch of mathematics that attempts to extract useful information from large quantities of data that would otherwise be unintelligible. It incorporates many different mathematical techniques. Which technique to use depends on the nature of the data and the information that you are trying to extract. If you use a technique that is not appropriate for the data then the information you extract will not be meaningful.

In the case of COVID-19 people have used the normal distribution to model the path of the outbreak and to make predictions. That is a reasonable thing to do. We know from many studies that the spread of a disease does tend to approximate quite closely to a normal distribution and there is good theoretical understanding of why it should. The model will not be perfect. For example there will be a lot of random fluctuation in the real data superimposed on the smooth normal curve and the curve can also be skewed but it is still useful. Not everything in nature follows a normal distribution so using a normal curve to model data that is not expected to be normally distributed will produce totally erroneous results. Once you have the full data set there are other tools that allow you to test if the data is normally distributed, with a given probability, and to correct for skewnees etc but that is not always easy to do when you have only part of the data set. The Greek data set is now pretty full while the UK data set is only about half full, perhaps a little more, and the USA data set is probably less than half complete.

Another problem is confusion between common use terminology and precise mathematical terminology. If you look in a dictionary the word "average" is defined as a noun, meaning the sum of a number of different values divided by how many values there are, and an adjective, meaning something that is typical of a group. A statistician would use the term "arithmetic mean" for the first definition and would use a whole range of different mathematical terms to define the second depending on the circumstances. For example he might use a geometric mean. The ONS uses arithmetic mean to calculate RPI but geometric mean to calculate CPI. The geometric mean is less affected by a small number of outliers and better represents the majority of the data. Harmonic mean is similar but not identical to geometric mean. When talking about "average" wages they usually quote the "median" wage, i.e. half the population have less than the median and half more, but use the word average to describe it, in the sense of typical. In some situations it might be better to use the mode or most popular value. If you divide your data into small ranges and count how many data points you have in each range then the mode would be the range with the biggest number of data points in it.

In general statistics never lies but people can choose inappropriate statistical tools to support any lie they wish to tell. Statistics truthfully answers the question that you ask but you may not be asking the right question, either knowingly or unknowingly.

Warwick

Kamisiana
Posts: 452
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:06 pm

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Kamisiana » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:47 pm

I always wanted to be a pedant, but realised life's to short to worry about some of the finer details.
I may be wrong but allegedly being a pedant can make "one" look phenomenally condescending :wink:

Keltz
Posts: 220
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:53 am

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Keltz » Mon Apr 27, 2020 1:16 pm

Kamisiana wrote:I ......... realised life's to short to worry about some of the finer details.


On the day of Boris Johnson returning to work as Prime Minister, your comment leads me to wonder why the "finer details" that you don't seem to worry about might actually tell you something quite important.

If you look at this link a couple of pages down showing current Worldometers data reflecting the impact by country of the virus and in particular the deaths per million people. The UK is shown as 7th most deadly.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The Financial Times recent analysis of 41,000 deaths in England and Wales a number taken from Westminster government Office of National Statistics as the source and covering a population of 59 million then the actual death rate in England and Wales is 693 per million people.

A staggering number that dwarfs just about every other country and perhaps makes it clear why Westminster has failed to publish all the numbers of virus deaths within England and Wales.

Yes, details do matter and tell us that Boris Johnson and his government has been an enormous and tragic failure to the people of England and Wales.

BST
Posts: 586
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:29 pm

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby BST » Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:17 pm

Having just watched Panorama, I think lawsuits will follow. I wonder if any healthcare workers in Greece have lost lives?

Kookla
Posts: 138
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2016 4:24 pm

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Kookla » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:04 am

https://www.standard.co.uk/fashion/how- ... 21031.html

As masks are now compulsory, (as/when lockdown measures ease),in ‘indoor public places’ I thought this link might be of interest. I have made the bandana ones for my husband and myself. If you don’t have elastic hair ties or bandanas and can’t/ don’t want to sew; we need to improvise. Could perhaps use a folded over pillowcase, or material table serviette, you could safety pin a ribbon to tie it. Or even a firm bra cup! :oops: :roll:

Yin&Yang
Posts: 725
Joined: Thu May 24, 2012 6:03 pm
Location: Megala Horafia/Aptera

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Yin&Yang » Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:37 am

Thank you for the link Kookla. The instructions look pretty straight forward and I think it’s worth making some washable ones now so that we will be ready.
Someday is now : )

Tim
Posts: 618
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2012 1:41 pm
Location: Near Sitia
Contact:

Re: Coronavirus, what happens next

Postby Tim » Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:55 am

Kookla wrote:As masks are now compulsory .... Or even a firm bra cup! :oops: :roll:


Thanks, Kookla - can't wait to be seen out and about in Sitia with an item of ladies intimate apparel strapped to my face. I rather think something black and lacy might suit me .... finally, things seem to be looking up!

Tim


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