Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

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Kamisiana
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby Kamisiana » Sun May 03, 2020 10:34 am

Kilkis wrote:Yes there are many similarities in the symptoms and epidemiological properties of influenza and COVID-19, which is why they tend to be lumped together in people's minds. There are also many differences and quite a few unknowns.

For example it is well known that children are the principle vector in spreading flu by quite a big margin but results SO FAR suggest they are not a major factor in spreading COVID-19. Nobody is sure why nor absolutely certain that it is true. This is the reason that sending children back to school has been so high up the agenda, obviously together with the fact that many politicians have been having to spend a lot of time at home with their children and can't wait to get rid of the little brats. It is possible that sending children back to school would have no effect on the infection rate R. It is possible that it would have a very small effect on R that we can control through test and trace. Those two possibilities strongly suggest that it is worth sending children back to school quickly given the benefits doing so would bring. It is also possible, however, that sending children back to school would cause a large increase in R that it would be difficult to control through test and trace. Nobody actually knows which outcome would prevail. From current knowledge the first or second are most probable but the third cannot be ruled out. As with so many decisions that need to be made regarding COVID-19 and relaxation of lockdown, it often boils down to, "Do you feel lucky, punk" to slightly paraphrase Dirty Harry.

Biologically both influenza viruses and COVID-19 consist of single strands of RNA, ssRNA, wrapped in a lipid shell. The genomes of all Coronviruses are classed as positive single strand RNA, +ssRNA, while the genome of all Influenza viruses are classed as negative, -ssRNA. The polarity of the single strand RNA affects how it reproduces. Positive and negative in this sense are nothing to do with electrical charge, just a way of describing the nature of the genome. Once you get past that difference and delve into greater detail my "back of the bike shed" biology knowledge crumbles to dust.

Warwick


That was a bit of luck thank God for bike sheds :wink:

DJ
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby DJ » Tue May 05, 2020 1:03 pm

I have also booked flights for our usual two week break in Crete at the end of October. I put the chances of that actually happening about 70-30 against.

SatCure
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby SatCure » Wed May 06, 2020 8:15 am

Tim wrote:Yes, maybe it depends upon the particular virus's ability to reinvent itself as a different strain. I think I read there are 600 variants of the common cold coronavirus.


There are already 30 strains of COVID-19. The most virulent were found in Italy and Iran. So don't hold your breath for an all-encompassing vaccine in your lifetime.

Thankfully, we don't have to wait for a vaccine because the all-encompassing coronavirus cure has been known since at least 2015. Not only does it cure the infection if taken early enough - it also acts as a preventative! So why is Mainstream Media trying to hide or even refute this fact? I'll let you decide. Read on...

https://onenewsnow.com/perspectives/bryan-fischer/2020/04/27/fauci-knew-about-hcq-in-2005-nobody-needed-to-die

And, before you jump in with the mainstream propaganda that this drug is "dangerous" and can cause "heart failure", read this report:
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCEP.120.008662

Kilkis
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby Kilkis » Tue May 12, 2020 11:56 am

SatCure wrote:...There are already 30 strains of COVID-19. The most virulent were found in Italy and Iran. So don't hold your breath for an all-encompassing vaccine in your lifetime...


Some care is needed when making this type of claim. All viruses mutate but a mutation itself does not imply a new strain. A new strain implies that the way the virus operates has changed. That requires quite specific changes in the genome sequence not just any random change. Some of the mutations do indeed alter how easily the virus can enter a cell or the amount of new virus produced. However the authors of the paper reporting on these 30 mutations also wrote, my highlight in red:

    “Current genomic survey data suggest that single nucleotide variants (SNVs) are abundant. However, no mutation has been directly linked with functional changes in viral pathogenicity,

Influenza also mutates very rapidly and does produce new strains but it has been possible to produce vaccines against it, although it does need to be refreshed every year to take account of the different strains, i.e. which strains are expected to be most prevalent that winter. Mutation itself does not preclude a successful vaccine but it does make it more difficult. What is more worrying than mutation is that, so far, no vaccine has ever been produced against one of the Coronavirus family.

Getting back to the original topic Ryanair has announced it intends to start flying about 40 % of its schedule starting on 1 July, subject to travel restrictions being lifted.

Warwick


Kilkis
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby Kilkis » Tue May 12, 2020 5:01 pm

I think there is a massive hole in the UK government's thinking, especially when it comes to older people. It is the job of government to assess risks to the community as a whole and take action to reduce those risks if they are too high. For example if the virus was allowed to spread unchecked it would certainly have overwhelmed the NHS and that would have put a very large number of people's lives at risk, including many who didn't catch COVID-19 but who needed treatment for other illnesses. The government has already allowed that to happen by not acting soon enough.

It is not the job of government to assess the risk to me as an individual and take action to minimise my personal risk. That is my job. While it is true that if I catch the virus I am more likely to develop severe symptoms and possibly die than someone younger, I have not seen any evidence that, in any given scenario, I am more or less likely to catch the virus than anyone else. If the government decide that the risk to the community overall is not threatened by a particular relaxation, whatever that is, then that relaxation should apply to everybody. The Greek government seems to have recognised this but the UK government hasn't.

Warwick

Jean
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby Jean » Tue May 12, 2020 7:27 pm

The Greek government seems to have recognised this but the UK government hasn't.

I think that at some point when the Greek government were mulling over how best to end lockdown they were considering bringing in an age factor but that was dropped.
Anyway, relying on age is illogical, it's just a number and has only a limited relation to health status.

Guy M
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby Guy M » Tue May 12, 2020 7:33 pm

Kilkis wrote:I think there is a massive hole in the UK government's thinking

Warwick


No need to read any further - you are definitely right there.

Clio
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby Clio » Tue May 12, 2020 7:47 pm

Actually more hole than thinking...

Joan
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby Joan » Tue May 12, 2020 9:09 pm

For those who had the (mis)fortune to watch Boris last night, a maths teacher's reply.

Joan
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ros21m
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby ros21m » Tue May 12, 2020 9:57 pm

So, who is relieved that they're living here in Greece? Who is happy that they're living back in the UK?

Kilkis
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby Kilkis » Tue May 12, 2020 10:31 pm

I would love to ask the members of Sage, when, on the 23 January, Wuhan entered lockdown and by the end of 24 January 12 other major cities in Hubei province totalling 50 million people, i.e. almost the total population of the UK, were shut down which members of Sage said there was absolutely no need to stop people travelling from Hubei to the UK? Did they think China would lock down a province of 50 million people for a bad outbreak of cold?

When, beginning on February 6, Taiwanese authorities imposed a mandatory self-quarantine requirement for Taiwanese nationals who had travelled to those places where there were known infections, especially Hubei, which members of Sage said there was absolutely no point in the UK doing that?

When cases were doubling every 2 to 3 days, which one of them advised the government that it would be better to delay any action rather than take it sooner?

Which members of Sage told the government it would be OK to put elderly patients suffering with COVID-19 into care homes because they wouldn't be a threat to other residents?

Someone must have said all these things because the government has been completely clear from the beginning that they have been following scientific advice.

Warwick

PS If you look at the John Hopkins data for UK daily cases the down-slope of the hill is a lot shallower than on the Johnson presentation. Wishful thinking?

YoMo2
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby YoMo2 » Wed May 13, 2020 7:12 am

Joan, the graphic was absolutely priceless. Killing me.........

Andrew

Joan
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby Joan » Wed May 13, 2020 11:15 am

It gave us a much-needed giggle!

Answers to ros21m i) you ii) not us!

Joan

Kilkis
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Re: Britons urged to travel to Greece this summer

Postby Kilkis » Wed May 13, 2020 12:41 pm

Also loved the graph.

To be fair the government cannot put a time axis because it is not time dependent, it is event dependent. It would be better to use a series of boxes in a line with arrows going from one box to the next. Inside each box they could put what happens in that phase of the process, e.g. schools go back or hospitality opens up, possibly with conditions attached, e.g. distance between tables. Each arrow could be labelled with the necessary event, e.g. number of new cases per day falls below 500, number of new cases per day remains below 500 for at least 14 days. The action in each box and the condition that results in a move to that box would be driven by the science, especially what level of new cases per day can be reliably kept under control by the governments test, trace and isolate capability. If they are going to catch any increase in infection rate quickly enough, due to a new phase starting, they must use data that is immediately available like new cases per day. They cannot use information that is inferred from a series of data points like R.

Nobody knows the future. It is impossible to say that we will only do things that ensure R stays below 1. You can estimate what a particular action will have on R but you don't know. You can certainly say we will stop doing whatever action we did last if R goes above 1 but I don't think people want to hear that sort of message.

Warwick

PS The events and actions I used above are completely arbitrary examples to illustrate the methodology. I have no idea in what order actions need to be taken or what level of new cases is appropriate to allow that action to occur safely.


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