British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

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ros21m
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Location: Kerasia.

British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby ros21m » Wed May 20, 2020 4:54 pm

Although, I still don't know if & when the UK is bringing in this quarantine! https://greece.greekreporter.com/2020/0 ... t4YS-sX3u8

solitude1
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Location: panormo

Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby solitude1 » Fri May 22, 2020 10:05 am

I am not 100% sure but it may be around 1st June.

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kilkis » Fri May 22, 2020 12:45 pm

Well the UK is 7th on the list of new cases per day so they obviously wouldn't want anyone coming in from the 208 places in the world that have fewer cases per day contaminating the UK. In Europe they are only second to Russia and Russia is about 1 month behind the UK on the curve with around double the population so that is not surprising.

Warwick

Yin&Yang
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Yin&Yang » Sat May 23, 2020 6:10 am

I have just read the following from a Facebook post and found it very interesting:

QUOTE
“Good info that many of us know - but it can't hurt to refresh ... it's so tempting to become complacent - we can't.

From Yale Epidemiologist, Jonathan Smith, a lecturer in Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases and Global Health at Yale University School of Public Health. His research focuses on infectious disease transmission dynamics.

"As an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures. Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not being articulated or not present in the “literature” of social media. I have also relied on my much smarter infectious disease epidemiologist friends for peer review of this post; any edits are from that peer review.

Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous.

First, we are in the beginning of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm. This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.

This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception. I want to help the community brace for this impact. Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying. You may feel like giving in. Don’t.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically increases your contacts with family members / very close friends. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, play-dates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place. The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.

You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that whole chain.

In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison. These measures also take a long time to see the results. It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how on a population level, ‘one quick little get together’ can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does. I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise.

You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a play-date, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to choices outside the rules.

My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks. It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn’t working and become paralyzed by fear, or to just ‘cheat’ a little bit in the coming weeks. By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty."END QUOTE
Someday is now : )

bobscott
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby bobscott » Sat May 23, 2020 8:01 am

solitude1 wrote:I am not 100% sure but it may be around 1st June.


I think 8th June is the start date. Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Kilkis
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kilkis » Sat May 23, 2020 9:16 am

Brilliant quote from Jonathan Smith, Yin&Yang, please give it a "like" from me, whatever that means. Very relevant to the idea of social bubbles being discussed in the UK. Perhaps people should start thinking about the "Six degrees of separation" concept again?

Warwick

Yin&Yang
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Joined: Thu May 24, 2012 6:03 pm
Location: Megala Horafia/Aptera

Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Yin&Yang » Sat May 23, 2020 10:33 am

I’ve ‘liked’ it for you Warwick :lol:

It is a big read but well worth it!
Someday is now : )

Kookla
Posts: 130
Joined: Sun Mar 27, 2016 4:24 pm

Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kookla » Sun May 24, 2020 11:17 am

Yin & Yang excellent post, now if only we could educate some politicians and public!

Kilkis
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Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kilkis » Sun May 24, 2020 11:44 am

Or even some SPADs?

Warwick

Clio
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Clio » Sun May 24, 2020 12:51 pm

One will do.

bobscott
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Location: Kokkino Horio

Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby bobscott » Sun May 24, 2020 12:59 pm

This shower of incompetent and immoral idiots have to go. Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Guy M
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Location: Kalamitsi Alexandrou

Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Guy M » Mon May 25, 2020 7:33 am

The 3 themes in this one thread are very closely connected.

Deciding to quarantine 3 months late is one of many wrong moves by the U.K. government, Ros.

There is huge pressure to relax the social distancing measures - not least because it’s a sunny bank holiday Monday. Yin & Yang’s post describes the danger of doing this. People keep saying ‘but more people die in car crashes and we don’t lock down for that’ without thinking that car crashes aren’t normally a virus that you can spread to others.

Bob’s comment on the government is presumably in response to the Cummings drama and Johnson’s shocking tv appearance last night when he told the public we should follow our instincts when thinking about choices as to what we do.

We booked flights to Crete in January for 15 July - coincidentally the first date when people from U.K. may be allowed into Greece. However, given the three points above, i’m not packing yet.

chrissyg
Posts: 226
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:46 pm

Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby chrissyg » Mon May 25, 2020 8:21 am

I thought it was the 1st July.

Yin&Yang
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Joined: Thu May 24, 2012 6:03 pm
Location: Megala Horafia/Aptera

Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Yin&Yang » Mon May 25, 2020 8:22 am

Not for people flying from the UK.
Someday is now : )

Forsto
Posts: 48
Joined: Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:36 pm

Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Forsto » Mon May 25, 2020 8:27 am

15th July for UK holidaymakers? Where does it say that, please?


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