British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

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bobscott
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby bobscott » Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:58 pm

Kamisiana wrote:Most of the protesters will probably be the ones keeping their kids off school and taking them to the crowded beaches and refusing to go back to work.


You really do hang your prejudices on the washing line for all to see, don't you. Such wild assertions without a shred of proof!
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

mythos master
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby mythos master » Fri Jun 12, 2020 5:29 pm

Does anybody know the latest guidelines for car passengers please ?
a pessimist is an optimist with experience

Kilkis
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kilkis » Fri Jun 12, 2020 6:10 pm

When easing started in early May it went from driver plus one passenger, the rule during lockdown, to driver plus two passengers. I haven't heard of it being relaxed further. There are different rules for tourists hiring cars, see this extract from an email sent out by George Atsalakis:

    Rental cars will be disinfected between uses by different clients.
    Additionally, the number of passengers allowed will be restricted: For cars with up to five seats, only the driver plus one passenger will be allowed in
    the vehicle. For those with 6-7 seats, the driver plus two passengers. For eight or nine-seat vehicles, the driver will be allowed to carry up to 3
    passengers. These restrictions do not apply for families with children.

I am not sure if that would also apply to a local hiring a car but I am sure the rental companies will know. Given the relaxation for families with children hiring a car I would guess that would also apply to locals in their own car but I don't know for certain.

Warwick

George
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby George » Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:17 pm

eddie foster wrote:I never cease to be amazed and impressed by the number of contributors to this board who have PhDs in hindsight.

I never cease to be amazed and impressed by the number of people who still believe the snake oil salesman.


filippos
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby filippos » Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:14 pm

eddie foster wrote:I never cease to be amazed and impressed by the number of contributors to this board who have PhDs in hindsight.

The question I've asked myself most frequently is, "How would the clever people posting here have dealt with the problems if they were the ones who actually had to make the decisions based on advice from experts advising from different perspectives and often arguing amongst themselves. Some health 'experts' arguing for herd immunity - some in favour, others not so; advice to take course X to slow the infection rate to reduce pressure on the NHS while others disagree. Then the financial experts stick in their advice. Take that course and you'll destroy the economy and immediately another voice says that's definitely the way to go; any other solution will be even worse. Then you have the experts who are against lock-down on human rights grounds, opposed by those who want even stricter rules. Then Ministers have to make decisions each of which has to be chosen from amongst conflicting choices. On top of all that is that whatever decision they do make there will be citizens who disagree because of conflicts. Some parents want children back at school while others disagree; some people want to get back to their offices while many of their colleagues oppose the idea. Some experts are predicting an extensive second wave of infections being probable; others disagree. I do wonder what sort of mess the self-appointed experts on LiC would make if they were in the hot seats.

Rant over. I'm thoroughly fed up with the who issue especially as much of the discussion is based on guesswork and inaccurate reporting based of dubious statistics. This is my last appearance on LiC at least for the rest of summer which, within the rules, I intend to enjoy as much as possible. For the last several weeks I've done little more than skim the posts here; I won't miss LiC any more than it will miss me, i.e. not much.

Kilkis
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kilkis » Fri Jun 12, 2020 10:06 pm

No hindsight necessary. The advice from WHO from the very beginning was two fold:

    1 The only, I repeat, only, I repeat again only way to control the virus is to test, trace, isolate. I repeat, only. No equivocation. No opposing scientific view. No what iffs. No he said-she said. I repeat yet again, only.
    2 When you first find out about the virus you start running. You run as fast as you can as far as you can and you don't stop running. You don't wait to find out what is happening, you act. You don't worry about making mistakes because you will make mistakes. You take every action you can think of as fast as you can and worry about which ones worked afterwards.

That advice dates back before it was declared a pandemic, just a serious health issue, sometime in early February. I watched it being issued on a public broadcast. It wasn't top secret. Both SAGE and the government must have known what WHO advice was. Is there any evidence whatsoever that the UK government heeded it in any way? Lockdown is simply a crude way to control the spread of the virus once you have lost control of test, trace, isolate. WHO don't say that you shouldn't use it but it is a stop gap made necessary by the failure of test, trace, isolate, it is not a solution

You also don't need hindsight to tell you that totally closing your borders is the most effective measure as long as you do it immediately. Initially you don't have any cases in your country, because the virus started in a different country. If you close your border quickly enough you don't get any cases because the only place it can come from is outside that closed border. It cannot spread through the community if it never gets in. That is not hindsight that is epidemiology 101. The villagers of Eyam understood that over 350 years ago, although, in their case, they stopped it getting out.

Which do you think has the biggest negative impact on the economy, closing your border or leaving your border open and shutting down the whole economy? You don't need to close it for ever, just long enough to plan and implement a strategy that will control entry of the virus. With suitable measures transport of goods in and out can carry on as normal, you just restrict people. I don't think saying "there is no point in closing the border because we have let it get so out of control internally" counts as a strategy.

A new study has shown that very few of UK cases resulted in people coming in from China but from Europe. A paragraph from the BBC News article:

    The study showed that less than 0.1% of those imported cases came directly from China. Instead the UK's coronavirus epidemic was largely initiated by travel from Italy in late February, Spain in early-to-mid-March and then France in mid-to-late-March.

Note the dates: late February, early to mid March and mid to Late March. Even closing the border as late as mid February would have had a major effect on the spread of the virus. The government certainly knew this was a serious problem by mid February.

Warwick

PS Another piece of non-hindsight. There are a great number of people saying that the virus is in decline so we can relax the control measures more quickly. There is absolutely zero evidence that the virus is in decline. Spread of the virus is being inhibited by the control measures. It is still there. Probably around 90 % of the population have never had it. Relax the control measures before there are equally effective alternative measures in place and it will spread again.

Kamisiana
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kamisiana » Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:20 am


Kilkis
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kilkis » Sun Jun 14, 2020 10:39 am

There's an interesting article on BBC News which might suggest a technique Greece could use to test more incoming passengers. The problem with increasing test volume per day is not taking the sample but carrying out the test on the sample. Swabs are cheap and taking the swab sample takes a few seconds while it needs quite expensive equipment to run the testand there are not that many around. Also each test has to run for a long period of time to get a result.

In May, China experienced a return of cases in Wuhan, after a long period of zero cases, so they decided to test the whole city, i.e. getting on for 10 million people, which is a massive undertaking. One way they used to speed up the test process was to batch test, i.e. testing samples from 5 to 10 people mixed together. This can be helpful if the infection level is low. If any one of the five to ten people mixed together in the test sample is infected then it will produce a positive result but you won't know which one. You only use say half of each test sample so you can then test the other half individually for those five to ten people. With high infection rates this need to do repeat runs means it is not time efficient but at low infection rates it can be.

Take an example of a plane load of 200 passengers. To test them all individually would mean running 200 separate tests. Suppose, however only 3 % of the passengers are infected, i.e. 6 passengers. If you divide the samples into 20 batches each containing half a sample from 10 individuals you only need to carry out 20 tests. Worst case scenario is that 6 of those batches test positive, because they contain material from one of the victims, so you have to test those 60 people individually, i.e. a total of 80 tests rather than 200. If you use batches of 5 passengers you have to carry out 40 tests initially and then a worst case scenario of 30 secondary tests so a total of 70 tests. Apart from the reduction in test volume it also means that you can release all passengers who were in the negative batches as soon as the first results are known. Probably, if you were testing lots of aircraft, the 6 positive cases would not end up in six separate batches every time. Some batches might contain 2 or 3 positive cases, which reduces the number of tests even further.

The optimum batch size depends on the expected infection rate. If you drop the infection rate to 2 % a batch size of 10 results in a total of 60 test runs, i.e. 20 initial and 40 repeats, while a batch size of 5 also results in a total of 60 test runs, i.e. 40 initial and 20 repeats. Go down to 1 % and a batch size of 10 results in 40 test runs while a batch size of 5 results in 50 test runs. Based on the 100 % testing done so far at Athens airport the expected infection rate is around 2.3 %.

The test regime can be dynamic and change based on the results obtained. If very low infection rates are found the batch size can be increases and vice-versa. Also a different batch size could be used for different countries.

Warwick

Kamisiana
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kamisiana » Sun Jun 14, 2020 11:53 am

Two interesting articles on Covid-19
https://www.insidehook.com/article/news ... oronavirus
The Dunning-Kruger Effect

And from Bob Grant The Scientist Magazine
https://www.the-scientist.com/editorial ... ists-67584

Kilkis
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kilkis » Sun Jun 14, 2020 12:55 pm

I totally agree with the two links, Kamisiana, I see examples of it everyday.

I don't know if you watched Question Time on Thursday evening? Rocco Forte is one of the worst examples I have seen in a long time. Example: "There is no scientific evidence that reducing the social distance from 2 m to 1 m will increase the spread of the virus". Untrue. There is loads of scientific evidence that reducing the social distance increases the risk. He wants it reduced so that it is easier to operate his hotels. There is no safe distance it just gets less safe the closer you get together. The distance you choose for a regulation depends on your infection rate and your ability to test, trace and isolate. If your test trace and isolate capability is well within your current infection rate you can risk reducing the distance and still combat any increase in the spread that results. The countries that have reduced their distance, in some situations, have lower infection rates and/or greater test, trace and isolate capacity than the UK. He made many more highly misleading statements that I am amazed he wasn't pulled up on.

Another example by someone promoting return to schools: "Children can't catch COVID-19". Again untrue. They certainly can, many have and a few have died. What the data shows is that children who do catch COVID-19 are extremely unlikely to develop severe symptoms and there is a very, very small risk of them dying so there is negligible risk to children if you open up schools. There is some evidence that they are less likely to catch it than adults but it is not clear how real that evidence is. For example many are completely asymptomatic so would never be tested hence they would be counted as not having caught it. We will only know the truth when widespread antigen testing is done after the event. Like the social distance, you estimate the increased risk of infection spread if children go back to school and weigh that risk against your ability to control it through test, trace and isolate. Like the social distance that depends on your current infection rate combined with your test, trace and isolate capability.

For every single step taken in easing lockdown it is useless to say: "Well country X has done it so why can't we?" I would make a suggestion, Kamisiana. Go to the John Hopkins web site. It's got a lot of information on it so give it a little time to fully load. Click on Iran. Go to bottom right and click on Daily cases. The left half of the graph, up to around mid April is a picture of where you are today in the UK. The right hand side of the graph is your future if Johnson gets it wrong and my future if Mitsotakis gets it wrong.

Warwick

Kookla
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kookla » Sun Jun 14, 2020 1:06 pm

Yes Kamisiana I have been quoting D-K effect and their paper ( I think from the mid eighties) oh, for almost four years now...There is a prime specimen who constantly spouts and fits into the category, in the states.

Kamisiana
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kamisiana » Sun Jun 14, 2020 2:14 pm

Thanks Warwick the John Hopkins web site is most informative this sort of information is much better straight from the horses mouth rather than just re-quotes where it can get a bit lost in over explanation this is a good example
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByF6Vg-KoGw

Kilkis
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kilkis » Sun Jun 14, 2020 3:17 pm

Quite a good imitation but I still prefer the original. He taught me everything I know and also how to communicate information clearly.

The most reliable and informative sites, in addition to John Hopkins, are Worldometer, because it also includes data scaled for population size and allows you to sort by any parameter, the Europa COVID-19 site, because it allows you to download the data in Excel format, and others, so you can do your own modelling, and EUROMOMO, because it provides excess death from all causes data while the others concentrate on purely COVID-19 data, although from a limited range of European countries. While not really a source of data, Crete Tip is also useful, since it gives specific updates on Crete, if any, as well as general Greek data but it is an overview, not detailed.

Note the use of the word "data" in that paragraph. All these sites provide "data" but they don't provide "information". "Information" is obtained by analysing the "data". As an example:

The worldwide data at the top of the Worldometer site is quite interesting as it presents the daily number of new cases and the daily number of deaths side by side. The daily number of new cases rises very rapidly up to the beginning of April. It then flattens out through April but starts to rise again in early May and is still continuing to rise, although not as fast as at the beginning. The daily deaths reached a peak about 2 weeks after the daily cases started to flatten and since then has been in a slow but fairly steady decline. The delay in the deaths is expected, as people who are going to succumb mostly do so about two weeks after contracting it, but the fall in daily deaths as daily cases continue to rise is a bit odd. It might demonstrate that the virulence of the virus is weakening or it might be due to some other factor.

If it is weakening that would be good for easing but it's a bit early to gamble on it helping. It is a known phenomena with many viruses. There are many instances of the virus each with slightly different genome sequences. The differences are not enough to counts as a different strain but some will be more virulent than others. If somebody catches a virulent version they become seriously ill quite quickly and are unlikely to be out and about spreading that particular version. Somebody who catches a much less virulent version is more likely to be asymptomatic or with very mild symptoms that they ignore. They are more likely to be out and about potentially spreading that version. Over time the less virulent versions dominate and the most virulent versions die out. The virulent version may continue to spread in hospitals.

The graphs on the Worldometer site are simply "data". The analysis in the above two paragraphs attempts to extract "information" from the data. The analysis might be totally correct or it might be totally wrong or it might be somewhere in between. The "data" is real. The paragraphs provide the logic that was used to extract the "information" from the "data". Make your own mind up. Provide different "information" extracted from the same "data". Provide a criticism of the logic.

Warwick

Kilkis
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Re: British hopes of summer holidays abroad quashed!

Postby Kilkis » Mon Jun 15, 2020 9:36 am

For anybody still thinking of travelling to/from the UK Aegean issued an update on travel restrictions today which contains the following statement:

    Upon decision of the Greek Government, the flight ban from/to the United Kingdom and Turkey is extended up until 29.06.2020.

Full details for travel to/from other countries is on their web site. Just click on Greece to find the Greek rules. They also have the rules that apply in some other countries.

Warwick


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