Flying Crete - UK

For discussion, news, comments, questions and information about Crete & Greece.
Kamisiana
Posts: 480
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2017 4:06 pm

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby Kamisiana » Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:39 am

ros21m wrote:Chrissyg, please get your arse from out of wherever it is, what a condescending bitch you are! And trust me, it takes something absolutely outrageous for me to lose my cool. YOUR quote { I think it is very wise of people who are older or in a high risk group to be extra cautious and stay at home as much as they can and i would not criticise you for doing so. }IF YOU & all the other tourists, Greek, or foreign, didn't bring the virus here, we wouldn't need to stay at home! Trust me, this a a polite forum, somewhere else , I would tell you, exactly what I thought of you Please send me your contact deatails. You want to know when the tia yias on the island start dying? I'll gladly pass on those details to you, & your comments to their families! I have copied your comments & I will be passing them on, to every family.


SURELY a public warning is in order from the forum administration for such an outrageous rude and and offensive attack on a public forum.

chrissyg
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:46 pm

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby chrissyg » Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:57 am

Thankyou for that Kamisiana. That post has upset me and was really nasty. I am not being condescending. My elderly father is vulnerable and isolating still and i have not been able to see him. I havd not cuddled my son in 4 months and i have obeyed the social distancing rules diligently. I have a friend who is a nurse so i know the score. I also believe in getting society back and the campaigns to try and get out and spend etc. I believe in tourism to help all our economies because i feel there will be nothing to come back to after this virus has gone if we dont try to get back to normal. I am not condoning partying but i think young people shouldnt take the blame because they are obviously going out more and taking more risks. To some extent i do agree with the herd immunity theory and i shouldnt be called a bitch for voicing that opinion which some scientists agree with.

Kilkis
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Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby Kilkis » Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:23 am

Herd immunity is a concept associated with vaccination. Based on the reproduction rate of any infectious disease you can calculate what percentage of the population needs to be vaccinated in order to achieve herd immunity. The higher the reproduction rate the bigger percentage need to be vaccinated.

No government ever has deliberately allowed an infectious disease to spread in order to achieve herd immunity!

How many deaths are acceptable? If the government did pursue such a policy and your father happened to be one of those who died would you still think it was a good idea?

Warwick

chrissyg
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:46 pm

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby chrissyg » Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:31 am

The government is being accused by Corbyn at the moment for believing in herd immunity. They allowed a lot of events to go ahead before lockdown which we know now was wrong. I thought herd immunity meant the virus was allowed to spread deliberately so that a lot of people would then be immune because of the antibodies and then the virus would have nowhere to go. I thought that was what they tried in Sweden, sadly didnt quite work.

chrissyg
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:46 pm

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby chrissyg » Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:38 am

Ps. There is a new study out today in fact from Oxford uni stating that herd immunity may be enough in the UK to prevent a second wave. Only an opinion, Warwick, not sure anyone has the answer.

evansmr1
Posts: 313
Joined: Tue Nov 09, 2010 3:00 pm
Location: Pirgos, Kalo Horio,

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby evansmr1 » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:14 am

chrissyg, I have to agree with the comments made against you for your ridiculous comments. Try engaging your brain before you make such dangerous comments.

We cant all stay at home is what im saying, and the ones that dont and therefore take more risks, shouldnt be made to feel guilty about it.


Killkis got it absolutely right regarding is analogy about the Waiter.This should be a warning to us all.

I stay well away from the younger Tourists that I see wandering about. My wife and I only visit Kafenios and Tavernas that Tourists do not visit. We have still plenty of years ahead of us. Not worth the risk. It is time that the Younger generation realised how dangerous this virus can be to people that are not in the best of health. Thankfully I am, but my wife is not, so we go out with care.
Mike
=============
Sic parvis magnaike

Kilkis
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Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby Kilkis » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:16 am

Herd immunity and the reproduction rate are closely linked. Ro is the reproduction rate at the start of an outbreak when nobody has immunity. It is simply the average number of people that an infected person will pass the disease onto if nobody has immunity. Assuming people who catch the disease and survive become immune, which is not certain, as more and more people get immunity the probability of someone with the disease meeting someone without immunity decreases and so the effective reproduction rate, Reff goes down. Once Reff gets less than 1 the disease starts to decrease and dies out. The smaller Reff the faster the disease dies out.

For COVID-19 the best estimate for the percentage of the population that need to have immunity to achieve an Reff of less than 1 is about 60 %. The estimate is a bit variable because we don't know the exact value of Ro. That level is defined as herd immunity.

It is true that herd immunity could be achieved by letting the virus spread. That might be a very sensible option if the Case Fatality Rate, CFR, is 0. If nobody is going to die why worry? In the case of COVID-19 we know that the CFR is definitely not 0. Amongst the older demographic the CFR is estimated to be above 10 %. Hence my question, how many deaths are acceptable?

This is a statement from an ONS report:

    Between 26 April and 26 July, 6.2% of people tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 on a blood test, suggesting they had the infection in the past.

That is based on widespread sample testing across the population of England. Basically because that is based on an antibody test that detects people who have had COVID-19 at any time in the recent past, i.e. not just people who have it now, it represents the percentage of the population that have had COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic up to 26 July. Given the new infection rate since the 26 July has been relatively low compared to the peak of the pandemic there is absolutely no way that the number of people who have previously been infected could be above 60 %. That is also born out by the fact that as lockdown measures are eased the infection rate starts to increase so Reff in the absence of mitigating measures is still above 1. If herd immunity had been achieved you could totally remove all mitigating measures and the infection rate would continue to decline.

People are tending to believe whatever information allows them to do what they want to do without really questioning if that information is accurate.

Warwick

chrissyg
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:46 pm

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby chrissyg » Fri Aug 21, 2020 10:38 am

Yes, i agree with that. But if you cant trust antiibodies after having it, then vaccines arent going to work are they? We know a lot more now and there are treatments, one of which is to give plasma containing antibodies to patients. No deaths are 'acceptable' but some are inevitable. In theory then,with the herd immunity wouldnt it have worked if we had protected the old and vulnerable and let the youngsters spread it.?In practice it only works if you are immune once you have caught it and the jury is supposedly still out on that. Is there really any evidence that you can get it twice? We also know that a lot of cancer patients have died indirectly because of deferred treatments and loads of people have avoided checkups etc because of fear to even go to the doctors. How many more will there be due to poverty in the years to come because of this? And i also fear for the mental health of young people which is why they all need to get back to school and colleges and try to get back to normality. In other words i agree with 'Don't kill your Granny' but also 'Eat out to Help out'.

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby Kilkis » Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:27 am

Exactly who do you protect? Different countries present their data in different ways so I don't know the figures for the UK but for Greece, while it is true that almost 79 % of COVID related deaths were in the over 65 age group around 20 % were in the 40 to 65 age group. That's a significant chunk of the working population that would need to be protected. Also we know the over 65 group are potentially vulnerable simply by looking at their birth certificate while we are probably not sure exactly who in the 40 to 64 cohort are vulnerable. We can easily recognise those who are vulnerable because they are obese but how many of that group have other underlying conditions that make them vulnerable that they are unaware of?

The statistics from ONS in the UK show that, overall in 2020, COVID-19 is the third most common cause of death after Dementia/Alzheimer and Ischaemic Heart Disease. That is with a 6 % total infection rate so far and an extensive lockdown for a very long period. Where would it be if we tried to achieve herd immunity by letting the virus spread?

There doesn't have to be lockdown. South Korea and other countries have controlled the spread of the virus without resorting to lockdown. Instead they have used an effective test-trace-isolate system together with hygiene measures, widespread (universal?) mask usage and limited restrictions in high risk environments. Both the UK and Greece have completely failed to implement an effective test-trace-isolate system and pretty well failed on mask wearing.

Warwick

chrissyg
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:46 pm

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby chrissyg » Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:49 am

Yes, the uk have done particularly badly and i supose we needed a lockdown earlier to get it under control before so many died. Sweden had no lockdown and it seemed to be working but i imagine they got slack and now there are more cases. When its all over we can analyse the different approches and outcomes. I think i would have gone a bit further with the shielding personally, maybe 50 plus. ( would include me unfortubately)I remember at the beginning the death reports were all 'people with underlying conditions or elderly. It would be a huge percentage of the population but maybe it would have worked better. And i agreed with WHO that wanted testing, testing, testing at the start and we were actually saying dont test, just isolate if you feel ill. Even now there is much more testing capacity than people doing tests, because you are supposed to feel ill before you book one. Maybe people could go gor a test before they go on holiday, for instance, or just more random testing.

Mixos
Posts: 511
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2012 8:26 am
Location: North East Crete or S.W.England

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby Mixos » Fri Aug 21, 2020 12:52 pm

Chrissyg, I think the comment posted by ros21m is outrageous and unforgiveable. I have been reading this thread with interest and it was perfectly civilised until this person added her?/his? pennyworth. I note that the time of the posting might provide a clue to the intemperate language. I also note that ros21m says it takes a lot for her/him to lose her/his cool. This is the person who was gratuitously insulting to jackdaw on July 1st in the thread "Any Rebates Available." ros21m should be thoroughly ashamed of her/him self and apologise and delete the post. Then, preferably, leave the forum altogether.

chrissyg
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:46 pm

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby chrissyg » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:25 pm

Thanks for your support Misos. I did notice another rude comment from Mike saying 'try engaging your brain etc", not so offensive as Ros but still. It is just an opinion and i was not endorsing young party goers meeting up without social distancing if he had read it properly. The waiter scenario is obvious and bound to happen but he/ she will be wearing a mask and washing their hands hopefully so what i am saying is it IS a risk but we cant not take risks if we are trying to get back to normal. I am surprised at such rudeness for voicing opinions and speculating theories. It seems very childish on what is supposed to be a forum for discussion.
I dont expect an apology, so i will try and ignore it.

mrsbluenose
Posts: 25
Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2019 5:53 pm
Location: Neo Chorio

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby mrsbluenose » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:26 pm

Mixos wrote:Chrissyg, I think the comment posted by ros21m is outrageous and unforgiveable. I have been reading this thread with interest and it was perfectly civilised until this person added her?/his? pennyworth. I note that the time of the posting might provide a clue to the intemperate language. I also note that ros21m says it takes a lot for her/him to lose her/his cool. This is the person who was gratuitously insulting to jackdaw on July 1st in the thread "Any Rebates Available." ros21m should be thoroughly ashamed of her/him self and apologise and delete the post. Then, preferably, leave the forum altogether.


I agree with this. I also agree with the thrust of Chrissyg's argument. Just for the record.

Stu

chrissyg
Posts: 299
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2017 4:46 pm

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby chrissyg » Fri Aug 21, 2020 1:34 pm

Thank you Stu, that makes me very happy. You are my friend-lol.

Kilkis
Posts: 12524
Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: Flying Crete - UK

Postby Kilkis » Fri Aug 21, 2020 2:39 pm

chrissyg wrote:...The waiter scenario is obvious and bound to happen but he/ she will be wearing a mask and washing their hands hopefully ...


I think there are a number of things wrong with this statement. Based on my, admittedly limited, observations:

    1 The waiter out front might be wearing a mask but the people in the kitchen preparing the food often aren't.
    2 Many waiters are wearing plastic masks, either that rest on the chin and point upwards or are on a headband and point down. These are completely useless in preventing the spread of the virus.
    3 Waiters are often wearing a mask when they come to your table to take the order or deliver food but then take them off. Was the waiter wearing a mask when he set up the table earlier in the day? Is the non-absorbent paper tablecloth covered in invisible virus bearing droplets? Are the glasses and the plates already on the table similarly infected?
    4 Was the waiter wearing a mask when he carefully wrapped the cutlery in a napkin, perhaps licking his thumb and pressing the corner to make sure it stays tightly wrapped?

Warwick


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