WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

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evansmr1
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WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby evansmr1 » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:01 pm

Convid-19 has devastated the Greek economy, but in particular Crete. There have been 3 or 4 bad years regarding Olive farming (particularly in my area). Last year was a good year for Tourism, but this year is nothing less than a disaster. The Greek economy is not strong enough to support Employees and Companies that rely on Tourism through tough times.
I believe that the lasted Greek unemployment count is in excess of 1 million. Shop Keepers tell me that last year was the start of recovery after 8 years of struggling. Now they have been hit again.

I, personally cannot see Tourism in Crete returning to the level that it has been for the past two years. In fact will it ever recover?. What else can the Cretan Youth do, there is no real Industry on the Island in terms of manufacturing for export. The future for Crete looks bad.
Do members of the Forum have any idea as to how Cretans will survive the next few years without a mass exit?.
Mike
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Tim
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby Tim » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:36 pm

evansmr1 wrote: The future for Crete looks bad.
Do members of the Forum have any idea as to how Cretans will survive the next few years without a mass exit?.


A mass exit to where, though? I have two young Greek friends who both now live and work in Newcastle and have no intention of returning any time soon. BUT, they both have degrees from Athens University. I doubt whether many of the mass of Cretan youth are in that position.

Tim

Kamisiana
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby Kamisiana » Tue Aug 25, 2020 5:40 pm

I do not know the answer Mike many of my friends rely on tourism maybe they will have to go back to a more basic lifestyle as most of us have had to for the last 6 months, and now Greece has just had another 2.73 billion handed over to help them out (quote interest rates to be fixed at a later date)

Kilkis
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby Kilkis » Tue Aug 25, 2020 6:35 pm

Tim wrote:...I have two young Greek friends who both now live and work in Newcastle and have no intention of returning any time soon. BUT, they both have degrees from Athens University. I doubt whether many of the mass of Cretan youth are in that position.

Tim


The National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, which is what most people refer to as the University of Athens, is certainly the top ranked university in Greece and is ranked around 219th in the world from 12,000 universities but it is not the only highly rated university in Greece. The National Technical University of Athens, often called the Athens Polytechnic where the student uprising against the Junta started, is ranked third in Greece but it specialises mainly in engineering and natural sciences and perhaps ranks above Athens University in these subjects, which are arguably in greater demand. The Aristotelian University of Thessaloniki is also ranked highly in the fields of engineering and science as is the smaller University of Ioannina. I don't know the total number of students at these top universities but the University of Athens alone is one of the largest universities by enrolment in Europe, with over 100,000 registered students, and I would imagine combining that with the others would double or treble that number. There seems to be quite a lot of scope for Crete's youth to get a top class university education if they are good enough. If they aren't, obviously they wont. There isn't much chance in the UK of the mass of UK youth going to Oxbridge.

There have been many times of crisis in Greece's recent history and they have all resulted in an exit of the best educated youth. There is always a steady exit because, even in good times, Greece offers little opportunity to its brightest but crises amplify the flow. They go to virtually every country in the world. English speaking countries figure highly, because virtually all bright students learn English, but countries like Scandinavia, where English is pretty much universally spoken, are also popular. Many learn other languages as well as English so they tend to have a wider choice.

I think the future is bleak for a very wide range of countries following COVID but Greece overall will certainly be badly affected and, because of the financial crisis, is less resilient. Crete is a very long way from being the worst affected region of Greece but it will certainly suffer.

I can't see any country like Greece recovering by trying to expand manufacturing but I am not sure what sectors they could expand.

Warwick

Maud
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby Maud » Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:59 pm

This is a world crisis. It is the youth that will suffer everywhere.

One thing in Greece’s favour is that education is still seen as beneficial, and most children want to go to school and learn. This means that higher education is sought after, and the young people who achieve this have the benefit of traveling elsewhere in the world with good qualifications. I have friends who have left Kriti to work in the U.K, the Netherlands and Germany....but they all return to Kriti eventually.

After Covid 19 maybe these opportunities will not present themselves, but the wonderful thing about the Greek youth is that they never see doing work that is not equivalent to their education as demeaning! - One friend’s daughter is an accountant. She graduated from NKU Athens but is cleaning rooms in a local hotel on Kriti this year. Another has a degree from Nicosia University and is working in her parents supermarket. At least these people have jobs. Youngsters from farming families will also always have work. The people who will really suffer are the town and city dwellers, - but this will be the same everywhere.

My hope for Kriti is that it will recover quicker than most places and countries once a vaccine is found. Tourists will soon return to such a paradise. Until than all we can do is support the economy as much as possible by spending our money!

john4d
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby john4d » Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:29 pm

Maud Wrote
My hope for Kriti is that it will recover quicker than most places and countries
once a vaccine is found.

Today the first reported case of a patient catching Covid-19 for the second time, albeit
a different strain. This certainly throws doubt on the hope that people who have had
the disease will develop antibodies that will protect them. Will a vaccine face the
same problem? If so the future for not just Crete, but the whole world looks grim.
There's no such thing as a bad taste joke

Jean
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby Jean » Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:47 pm

Convid-19 has devastated the Greek economy, but in particular Crete.

Actually, I think that Crete is doing way better than many many parts of Greece.

shine on
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby shine on » Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:55 pm

This virus will change the future society and health for sure, just as the 1918 pandemic did, and it’s not all a bad thing really. Crete is a good place to be and the Cretans know this, the young have a lot of pride in their blood and I’m sure that they’ll do what is right.
There is no point dwelling on past events, we should have a positive approach to future events. Our young children will remember this and it will have an impact on them for the rest of their lives. As tough as it seems, they will learn to make this work for them, not against them, they have to, for survival. We have to question, was the world a great place before this virus? Maybe we are being punished, it’s strange how the 1918 pandemic came at the end of WW1.
Anyway, the short answer is that I think Crete will have a good recovering economy in 2 years time, probably better than 2 years past, if we are all just patient.....and sensible.

Kilkis
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby Kilkis » Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:49 pm

shine on wrote:...it’s strange how the 1918 pandemic came at the end of WW1...


It seems highly probable that the 1918 influenza outbreak started in the trenches of WWI but information about it was suppressed by the countries involved in the conflict because it would damage the moral of the troops. That sort of resonates with China suppressing knowledge of COVID-19 at first because it would undermine the authority of the communist regime? Spain was neutral and had no need to suppress information so the first published news of the spread of influenza came from Spain, which is how it became known as Spanish flu. It almost certainly didn't arise in Spain and was not caused by anything Spain did.

Greece's economy is minute on the world stage. For the last 50 years the world economy has been engaged in a huge economic experiment that has failed. It is possible that COVID-19 will finally expose that failure. What happens then is anybody's guess but Greece will not be a significant influence. It will simply be swept along on the tide. At some point there has to be a monetary reset, like Bretton Wood, and one of the main players in that will be the Euro. The future of Greece will be in part determined by how the Euro fairs in that reset and also by whether the EU finally acknowledges the failures in the Euro and how it decides to resolve those failures. These are all interlinked. The rest of the world can see the failures in the Euro so how the Euro fairs in the reset will be affected by what it is prepared to do about faults in the Euro.

I think the countries that did the best pre-Covid were the ones that were most globalised but the success was very fragile. I think the countries that do best post-Covid will be the ones that strengthen their resilience and try to become self sufficient. It won't appear successful, because the overall size of their economies will probably shrink, but in the long run resilience will trump size. I think Greece has the ability to become self sufficient if it can sweep away the corruption and clientelism that holds it back. I hope it does but I fear it won't.

Warwick

Maud
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby Maud » Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:02 am

Yes John, I think we are a long time off an effective vaccine just yet. I agree with Jean though, that Crete is probably better off than most of Greece. We live in very uncertain times.

johnincrete
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby johnincrete » Thu Aug 27, 2020 8:28 am

On another post, I have told about the excellent service I have received from a local shop. We ex-pats should not resort to English pessimism but actively support our hosts. Just look at Cretan history. The island has been invaded so many times but has repelled the invaders and has shown its resilience by absorbing the best bits of invader culture and customs. Now we are invaded by Covid after the onslaught of Western "culture" from USA and the UK. It is hard to see what the best bits of this latest invasion are! But I pray that the spirit of Crete-past is remaining in Crete-present and future.

We who have embraced our adoptive country have learned of its delights. Those ex-pats who just want England with better weather are missing out!

What can we do to help? Buy local Greek, preferably, Cretan. Use Greek tavernas and order Greek dishes - you will be amazed at how much better a Greek burger is than the American cr.. - different but better. Of course, Cretans cannot manufacture many things we have to buy but use your local shop to get stuff for you, not resort to the internet, and be blessed with personal service. But resist the corruption of the "do you want a receipt" meaning "I don't want to pay tax". The list goes on and people who are grateful to live here will have no difficulty in coming up with their own ideas.

There is the true saying "You only appreciate something when it is gone".

chrissyg
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby chrissyg » Thu Aug 27, 2020 9:33 am

Hear, hear!
Totally agree ( but i still have to find marmite-lol)

evansmr1
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby evansmr1 » Thu Aug 27, 2020 9:59 am

Excellent response, johnincrete. There is plenty that we can do.
There are a number of Manufactures in Crete, we must support them. Sending Cretan gifts to families as a birthday or Christmas present. An excellent one comes to mind , Bioaroma, they make and sell from their premises in Agios Nikolaos, they also sell on line and ship almost everywhere, Eliva, great products, but difficult to ship. Also on the mainland White Donkey. My wife loves their natural products. I am certain that there are many more Greek manufactures selling natural products.
There is also plenty that the Greek Government can do. A large reserve of Oil and gas was found off the South Crete Coast. Red tape seems to have delayed any action at drilling. Possibly to late as the invading Turks are sniffing around.
Come on Greece, drop the Red tape and start taking more responsibility, Greece could become self sufficient,
Mike

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Kilkis
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby Kilkis » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:00 am

evansmr1 wrote:...Greece could become self sufficient,


Well I'm all in favour of being optimistic but I am a realist. Greece currently has a trade deficit of around 11% of GDP, a current account deficit of 8.5% of GDP and a public national debt approaching 200% of GDP. The current account deficit has averaged 7.6% of GDP over the last 20 years so this is not some short term anomaly. Closing that gap to become self sufficient in the present world economy is a herculean task for any country let alone one like Greece struggling under a mountain of debt. It could be done. Ditch the Euro, default on all debt, public, private and corporate, and go back to a 1950s lifestyle. It would suit some people but I am not sure the young would appreciate it?

Warwick

Kamisiana
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Re: WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR CRETE POST CONVID-19

Postby Kamisiana » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:35 am

penned 5 years ago but still relevant today, alas expats buying a few bars of local soap are not going to change much :cry:
https://greecelists.wordpress.com/2016/ ... -are-poor/


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