Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

[Kilkis]

Добро пожаловать товарищ.

Warwick

[Mixos]

Can we stick to what's happening in Crete and ignore the dezinfomatsiya put out by the trolls from Olgino?

[Keltz]

Здравствуйте

Not much happening here, just wet and damp. Covid guidlelines haven't changed this week. Looks like more rain on the way.

[Kilkis]

Can we stick to what's happening in Crete ...

I've been tracking the published geographical distribution figures for some time now and I still cannot reconcile all the published numbers with the infection map. Working in confirmed cases per 100,000 population in a 10 day period:

Lasithi checks out fine. There was one case on 7 October and then nothing until 1 case on 19 October so it is definitely in the 0-4 category and that is what shows on the map.

Heraklion has been showing in the 10-49 category for some time now but based on the published numbers it only moved from the 5-9 category into the 10-49 category a couple of days ago. I make it about 10.5 so down the bottom end of the category.

Rethymnon just went down from the 5-9 category into the 0-4 category, which more or less agrees with the published numbers but it is on the borderline between the two categories.

Chania is still in the 5-9 category on the map and has been for quite a few days but according to the published numbers it is now below 4 and only ever just reached 5.

I think there must be cases that are being taken into account by the government in calculating the figures used on their map but are not published in that area. Perhaps they are in the tourist category. I suppose it is a bit academic. Chania, Rethymnon and Lasithi are still all in the lowest restriction category and Heraklion is in the third so the restrictions more or less tie in with the data. I am not sure if there is a single area in the UK that is below 20 Per 100,000 in a 7 day period which was the criterion they used to move places on and off the compulsory 14 day self isolation regime. Anywhere in Crete would be off the bottom of the chart in the UK.

There are quite a few intelligent locals who believe all Greece will move into a stricter regime once the tourist season ends at the end of October. Being on an island, purely out of self interest, I think the best thing they could do is to reintroduce movement restrictions between the prefectures. It is pretty easy to enforce for the islands and I think Crete could get down to zero cases fairly quickly once nobody is coming onto the island. Test-trace-isolate ought to be able to cope with the few people who are allowed to come and go, especially if they could adopt rapid testing. The rest of us could then pretty much resume normal life apart from maintaining social distancing and wearing face masks.

Warwick

[bobscott]

Does Greece have an app for test, track,trace purposes? World-beating isn't necessary; as Sir Keir Starmer said in PMQ's a few weeks ago, 'Effective will do'. Bob.

[Kilkis]

According to this web site Greece has launched a contact tracing App but I can't find it either in the Google Play store or in the "Greek Apps" App.

There is a fundamental problem with all the automatic Apps which is due to the way the App works and the basic laws of electromagnetism. In free space the field strength due to a source of electromagnetic radiation falls off as an inverse square law. If you know the strength of the source and you measure the field strength you can easily calculate the distance. That is the basis of the App. But what about when it isn't in free space? The App uses bluetooth as the source of radiation which operates at a frequency of 2.45 GHz. Guess what else operates at 2.45 GHz? A microwave oven. If you put a piece of meat in a microwave oven what happens? It cooks. How does it cook? It absorbs the radiation produced by the microwave oven and that causes the meat to heat up. Any possibility of there being any meat near the phones?

I like to wear a shirt with a breast pocket and I usually keep my mobile in that breast pocket. Suppose I am stood facing someone who also keeps their phone in their breast pocket. All there is between our two phones are two very thin layers of cloth and free space so the App will calculate a pretty accurate distance between us. Sometimes I cannot find the shirt I want with a breast pocket so I buy one without and then I keep my mobile in my back trouser pocket. Suppose I am facing someone who also has their mobile in their back trouser pocket. Then there are two large chunks of meat between the two phones that will absorb some of the bluetooth radiation and the phones will measure a lower field strength and calculate a bigger distance. In both cases our mouths are the same distance apart but potentially in one case we are flagged as a contact and in the other not. Suppose there is another person stood exactly the same distance behind me facing away from me who also happens to have their mobile in their back pocket. Their phone will register a higher filed strength than the person in front of me. If the distances are within the contact limit by a small amount it is possible that the person facing me, who is at highest risk, will not get flagged but the person behind me, who is at lower risk because we are not facing each other, will get flagged.

There is another issue in certain situations like on buses, in trains or in aircraft. You are effectively in a large metal box and electromagnetic radiation will reflect off the walls of the box. That can lead to all sorts of complex standing wave patterns forming in the box and if the sources of radiation are continuously moving by small amounts these patterns can change drastically. That can lead to phones further apart registerign a higher field strength than ones closer together again leading to false flags.

Warwick

PS I will ask around about the App in Greece.

PPS Don't worry about your phone cooking you. Firstly the power transmitted by a mobile phone is much lower than by a microwave oven. Secondly the microwave oven acts as a resonant cavity trapping all the power transmitted into it so the field strength is increased still further. Finally your body has a very effective cooling system whereby the blood flow rapidly removes heat from any areas that are heating up while the piece of meat in the oven doesn't.

[bobscott]

PPS Don't worry about your phone cooking you. Firstly the power transmitted by a mobile phone is much lower than by a microwave oven. Secondly the microwave oven acts as a resonant cavity trapping all the power transmitted into it so the field strength is increased still further. Finally your body has a very effective cooling system whereby the blood flow rapidly removes heat from any areas that are heating up while the piece of meat in the oven doesn't.

Drat! I thought I'd cracked a way keeping down the electricity bill!! Bob.

[Kilkis]

According to this Keep Talking Greece article it is now possible to get a free COVID-19 test in Greece if you think you might have it. The free tests are available on Crete at Chania General Hospital and Heraklion University Hospital. The article isn't explicit but I doubt if free tests are available if you just need to get one for travel purposes, e.g. to travel to a country that requires a negative test before travel is allowed. It seems to be mainly based on havign symptoms.

Warwick

PS Heraklion infection rates are still steadily increasing.

[bobscott]

Spotted this in today's eKathimerini: "The second measure Mitsotakis announced was the mandatory use of face masks in all public areas, enclosed or open." I am assuming that public areas mean basically anywhere outdoors.

It appears to be irrespective of which zone an area is in - i.e. nationwide. Anyone confirm that? Bob.

[Kilkis]

It is also reported in this Keep Talking Greece article. He introduced two new measures. Firstly a night curfew from 12:30 midnight until 05:00 a.m. in the regional units that are in category 3 and 4. Secondly the wearing of masks both indoors and outdoors, which does not mention any risk category so I would presume it is everywhere. That is supported by the statement: "In cafes and restaurants masks can be removed once people sit at a table”, which also implies you have to wear them everywhere. People were supposed to wear them at all times inside public spaces and outside in public spaces if they were crowded. The only way this can really be a new measure is if it extends the measure to all outside public spaces.

The measures come into force at 06:00 on Saturday 24 October.

Warwick

[Kilkis]

Rethymon has now moved into the 10-49 category for infections per 100,000 population in a 10 day period but is still in the lowest restriction category. Both Chania and Rethymnon had 4 new cases yesterday whereas in the recent past they have typically been recording 0 or 1. Lasithi is still only having single cases sporadically, e.g. 2 in the last 16 days.

Cases in Heraklion, however, are doubling every 6 days, which is a very rapid rise. I fear that if the infection rate in Heraklion is not slowed down it will start to increase in the other prefectures on Crete.

Warwick

[BST]

In other reports, Herakleion has been downgraded to a level 2? Which doesn't make sense.

[Yorgo]

Can we stick to what's happening in Crete and ignore the dezinfomatsiya put out by the trolls from Olgino?

Of course you can. Oddly enough you have not contributed anything to the debate. H'mmmm!!!!???

[Kilkis]

In other reports, Herakleion has been downgraded to a level 2? Which doesn't make sense.

The latest version of the COVID protection measures map does indeed show Heraklion at level 2. From at least 9 October to 22 October it has been in protection measures level 3. The protection measures level applied to any Nomos is not wholly dependent on the infection level. It also depends on whether it it rising, stable, or falling, the number of cases needing hospitalisation compared to hospital capability and the number in ICU compared to capability. Having said that I can see no reason for that reduction at all. It is still in the third level for infection rate, i.e. 10-49 per 100,000 population in 10 days and, much more importantly, the infection rate is increasing every day as it is for the rest of Greece. When the level is rising the last thing you want to do is reduce restrictions.

It is true that both Chania and Rethymnon are in the lowest protection measures level while Chania is in the second level for infection, 5-9, and Rethymnon has just gone into the third level for infection, 10-49, like Heraklion but, up to yesterday, there hasn't been any evidence of a steady increase. Typically some days had 0 cases and some days had 1. Yesterday there were 4 in Chania and 4 in Rethymnon. That might be a single spike, in which case both should probably stay in protection level 1. Alternatively it might be the start of a rise as has been seen in Heraklion, in which case they should move to higher protection levels. Personally I think that if the infection rate is increasing significantly the protection measures applied should be one level above the infection rate level, if it is stable it should be at the infection rate level and if it is falling you could argue for reducing it to one level below.

In both the UK and Greece the government seems to be delaying imposing higher restrictions unless the infection rate is higher. The key thing is if it is increasing. Once you know that it is increasing, delaying stronger protection measures is effectively saying, "No. Let's not control it now while the rate is low and controlling it will be easy. Let the rate rise to a much higher level and then we'll try to control it when it is much harder to do so." Madness.

Warwick

[Kilkis]

So far I've asked 5 Greek friends about a Greek contact tracing App and it was pretty clear they hadn't got the foggiest idea what I was talking about. I don't mean that they didn't know if Greece had one or not but they didn't know what such a thing was.

Warwick