Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

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Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby Kilkis » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:27 am

Infection rates are now clearly rising in Chania and Rethymnon and have been for some days now in Heraklion. Even Lasithi had 3 new cases yesterday. Whether that is a blip or the start of a rising curve there remains to be seen. While it might seem logical to have the least restrictions in the areas with lowest rates in reality it means that when infection rates in those areas do start to increase they increase more rapidly. This is also happening in the UK. An alternative way to describe how the tiered measures are applied is, "Let's not try and control the spread of the virus when the rates are low, let's wait until they get much bigger and then we will try and control the spread". The exact opposite of what Dr Mike Ryan of WHO strongly recommended back in February.

Warwick

jane m clayton
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby jane m clayton » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:27 am

Please can someone post the link which shows changes in the Covid data for the four prefectures of Crete with maps and charts. I'm sure this has been posted already but I can't remember when or where, so I can't find it. Thanks.

margarita
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby margarita » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:58 am

jane m clayton wrote:Please can someone post the link which shows changes in the Covid data for the four prefectures of Crete with maps and charts. I'm sure this has been posted already but I can't remember when or where, so I can't find it. Thanks.


This may be what you are looking for

https://covid19.gov.gr/covid-map/

It is in Greek.

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby Kilkis » Sun Nov 01, 2020 10:53 am

I have not been able to find a source that shows the changes in infection rate on a regional basis so I started keeping my own records.

The web page that Margarita linked is a regional map of the current protection level. It does not show cases nor does it show changes.

Keep Talking Greece publishes a daily update on the number of cases and I have been using that as a source. Each report shows a map of the current infection rate in each region for that day but on a crude colour scale, i.e. 0-4, 5-9, 10-49 >50. They also give a list of numbers of new infections by region for that day and I have been recording those for Crete in a spread sheet. The figures aren't completely accurate but I can't determine why and neither can the publication when I pointed out the discrepancies to them. I think the general picture they present is useful and I will try to post some graphs if I can.

Warwick

PS The protection map linked by Margarita will open in English if you use Chrome browser.

jane m clayton
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby jane m clayton » Sun Nov 01, 2020 11:27 am

Many thanks.

bobscott
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby bobscott » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:55 am

Today's eKathimerini says what is to happen in the new level 2 (the old levels 3 and 4) but crucially not in the new level 1 (the old levels 1 and 2). This last one, as I understand it, is where Chania is. Other sources are saying that 'no gatherings' is applicable to Crete. What exactly does that mean, and specifically for the churches? There are rules currently about the number of worshipers that can be allowed according to the size of the building. Does 'no gatherings' now include church services? Anyone got any hard information on that please? Not rumours, just hard facts! Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby Kilkis » Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:41 am

The government publishes a COVID Map showing which areas are in which tier. Under the map it describes what restrictions are applicable in each tier. If you open the map in the Chrome Browser it will automatically translate everything into English, apart from labels on the map. They are now calling it Level A, Surveillance, and Level B, Increased Risk. At the moment the whole of Crete is in Level A. Levels are reviewed every 14 days.

The description of the measures goes into great detail for different circumstances so I don't want to copy and paste it all here but specifically for places of worship it simply states: "1 person per 10 sq.m. and up to 50 people, sitting" in Level A and "Up to 9 people for all ceremonies, services, etc." in Level B.

Sorry I haven't posted a graph yet but if you take the whole of Crete, which smooths out some of the local blips, it does fit an exponential curve moderately well with a doubling rate every 9 days. That is using data from 20 September to 31 October. Looking at the whole of Crete data compared to the exponential curve I suspect that the rise was flatter in the first week or two and was rising faster in the last three weeks. If that is correct it means that the doubling time is now less than 9 days. It is a relatively small data set so trying to dig deeper into what is happening is quite difficult.

Heraklion and Chania are now very similar and high so they dominate the whole of Crete curve. Lasithi is still low but showing signs of starting to rise. The number of cases in a 10 day period per 100,000 population on 31 October were Heraklion 28, Chania 27, Rethymnon 15 and Lasithi 7, all rounded to the nearest whole number. For the whole of Crete it is 23. It should be noted that Rethymnon and Lasithi have a population of less than 100,000 so the actual number of cases in a 10 day period is less than the per 100,000 number while Heraklion and Chania have a population over 100,000 so the actual number of cases is bigger than the per 100,000 number.

Warwick

bobscott
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby bobscott » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:34 pm

Perfect. Thanks Warwick. Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

BST
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby BST » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:59 pm

A stack of stats. to wade through posted in Hanianews this morning. A bit of a shock as far as Chania is concerned!!

"Negative record in Greece in October, with the daily cases of the coronavirus pandemic exceeding the limit of 2,000 per day and 19 prefectures being at the level of increased risk (red).

The resilience of the National Health System is also in the red and especially in the remote prefectures and those far from the two major urban centers Athens and Thessaloniki.

The study presented by ethnos.gr analyzes the data related to the development of coronavirus disease in our country in October, based on the data declared by EODY and using the EpiEstim software of the World Health Organization.

The research of Nikos Kardoulas (agronomist surveyor, engineer of NTUA, MSc in England and colonel e.a.) includes the total statistics for October 2020.

Ρά Drama (2.92), Xanthi (2.72), Rodopi (2.52), Karditsa (2.48), Halkidiki (2.39), Evros (2.26) had the worst transmissibility index Rt on October 31 (greater than 2) , Imathia (2.08), Chania (2.07) and Thessaloniki (2.04)…

The conclusion is that 10 prefectures presented more than 200 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and 9 prefectures presented a transmissibility index Rt greater than 2 on October 31 and an average Rt in October greater than 1.5.

Also 6 prefectures presented a value of the Rt index greater than 3 on some days of the month. Compared to September, only 8 of the 51 prefectures showed an improvement in cases and 13 prefectures showed an improvement in the Rt index.

The table below shows the total number of cases, the cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the transmissibility index Rt on October 31 and its average in October, per prefecture of our country. A comparison is also made with the corresponding data for September.

Negative record in Kastoria, Serres, Ioannina

In terms of cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the areas with the highest epidemiological load were Kastoria with 491, Serres with 393, Ioannina and Kozani with 380, Thessaloniki with 363 and Rodopi with 352 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, while in The best place was Evritania and Kefallinia with 5 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

Worst indicator Rt

Drama (2.92), Xanthi (2.72), Rodopi (2.52), Karditsa (2.48), Halkidiki (2.39), Evros (2.26) had the worst transmissibility index Rt on October 31 (greater than 2). Imathia (2.08), Chania (2.07) and Thessaloniki (2.04).

On the borders of Karditsa, Chania, Messinia

The prefectures that are on the verge of the red alert and if the situation does not improve may change level from yellow to red, are Karditsa, Chania, Messinia, Florina, Thesprotia and Magnesia.

They hold Evritania, Ionian Islands and Cyclades

The best transmittance index Rt (less than 1) had Evritania, Kefallinia, Zakynthos, Fokida, Boeotia, Kastoria, Cyclades, Evia, Ilia, Kozani, Argolida, Rethymno and Fthiotda.

They reached the negative record of 3

The Prefectures of Serres, Rodopi, Drama, Thessaloniki, Xanthi, Evros, Messinia, Kavala and Chios had the worst average of the transmissibility index Rt in October (greater than 1.5), while the best average Rt (less than 1) had the Prefectures of Evritania, Kefallinia, Zakynthos, Fokida, Samos, Laconia and Lesvos

The Prefectures that showed a value of the transmissibility index Rt greater than 3 in October were Pella (4.86), Serres (4.26), Rodopi (3.93), Chios (3.89), Drama (3.35) and Kastoria (3.32)."

Kilkis
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby Kilkis » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:20 am

I agree it is worrying but perhaps not surprising. As I keep saying it is the difference between the current rate of infection and how that rate of infection is changing. The government seems to be basing its restrictions largely on the current rate of infection, i.e. low rate of infection - weak restrictions and high rate of infection - strong restrictions. The R number reflects how the rate of infection is changing. Large R means that the rate of infection is increasing rapidly while low R, but still above 1, means it is increasing slowly. If R gets to 1 the rate of infection stays constant and if R goes below 1 the rate of infection starts to decrease. The smaller the value of R below 1 the faster the rate of infection decreases.

Put those two facts together and you get what we observe. Weak restrictions mean that we have a large R so the virus can spread more rapidly and the rate of infection increases rapidly. Strong restrictions inhibits the spread of the virus so we have a low R and the infection rate increases slowly and, hopefully, eventually decreases. Exactly the same thing is observed in the UK with a tiered system. The areas with the highest rate of infection have the lowest R because they have strong restrictions. The areas with the lowest number of infections have the biggest R because they have the weakest restrictions.

A tiered system based on the rate of infection translates to "Don't try to control the virus while infection rates are low rather wait until they are big and then try to control it", i.e. the exact opposite of WHO recommendations. Although tiered control was not used during the first peak of the virus Greece adopted a "Let's get control of it quickly" policy while the UK adopted a "Let's wait until it gets bigger" policy with marked difference in outcomes. With tiered controls since the summer both countries have been using a "Lets wait until it gets bigger" policy with very similar outcomes.

Neither country has effective test-trace-isolate systems. Until they rectify that they will oscillate between clamping down on the virus and destroying the economy to relaxing control of the virus to save the economy resulting in increased infection rates, increased hospitalisations and increased deaths.

Warwick

Kilkis
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby Kilkis » Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:57 pm

They have now added a third level of Full Lockdown. Only Thessaloniki and Serres are in that category so far.

All of Crete is still in the lowest level at present although the infection rate is still rising, especially in Heraklion and Chania. I tried doing a best exponential fit to the data but starting on 10 October rather than 20 September and it has very little effect on the doubling time. It is still around 9 to 10 days.

Warwick

BST
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby BST » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:20 pm

15 new cases in Chania today.3 after the official deadline. That sounds like a very rapid doubling!!

Kilkis
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby Kilkis » Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:40 am

Chania has now gone above Heraklion in terms of cases per 100,000 population in a 10 day period. If nothing happens to slow the spread I estimate that both Chania and Heraklion will move into the 50+ level within 1 week and shortly thereafter go into Level 2 restrictions. I am not sure what criteria they are using to put areas into Level 3, i.e. pretty similar restrictions to the first phase.

Lasithi is definitely increasing, i.e. recent cases were not a blip, and is rapidly catching up Rethymnon.

Sadly the good work of phase 1 has been totally squandered.

Warwick

Kilkis
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Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby Kilkis » Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:04 pm

I did some more analysis on the figures. First I split them into two groups from 20 September to 19 October and 20 October to date. I then did a separate best fit exponential curve on each data set for the whole of Crete. That shows a much better fit than trying to use a single exponential curve for the whole data set. In the early part, the analysis gives a doubling time in the rate of infection of about 14 days. In the latter part that drops to a little over 6 days. The infection rate was certainly accelerating rapidly. Hopefully the increased restrictions will start to at least slow the increase and hopefully start to bring it down.

Everything is based on infection rate per 100,000 population in a ten day period.

Warwick

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Level 1 for Chania. Level 3 Herakleion New guidelines

Postby Kilkis » Mon Nov 30, 2020 2:19 pm

In case anybody is using the map published in Keep Talking Greece to see what is happening with the infection level in each area, be aware that the basis of the map changed on 10 November. Before 10 November it showed the number of confirmed infection per 100,000 population in each area in a TEN day period. On 10 November and subsequently that changed to a FOURTEEN day period. The caption on the map, which is in Greek, changed but the description in English below the map in each update article stayed saying TEN days. I think Keep Talking Greece will probably update their description now.

In general Crete reached a peak around 14 November and is now going down but the rate of decline is much slower than the rate of rise, apart from Lasithi where it appears to be dropping quite quickly. That is on the basis of a TEN day period, since I have only just noticed that the government changed the statistic, but the outcome will be similar if you use FOURTEEN days.

Looking at Greece as a whole on Worldometer using the 7 day moving average the number of cases per day peaked around 18 November but new deaths are only just starting to show signs of flattening and certainly haven't started to go down yet.

Warwick


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