Forthcoming Elections

[Muttly]

Now I have no local experience and I am going on a report today by BBC Radio 4 one PM News. So please no flaming or otherwise. I just ask the questions and hope to get informed answers.

The BBC basically reports that both the current government and the socialist parties are in trouble as a Greek electorate that is allegedly shocked by the recent fires says "a plague on both your houses".

The Communists, a more centre party and a right wing party with immigration issues are the main benefactors.

Plainly with the interviews/articles that the BBC did it would allegedly seem that the population believes wether they are right or wrong that people clearing land for the purposes of building are responsible.

The reason for the "plauge on both your houses" would seem to be that both big parties are suspected of corruption.

As the elections are due Sunday plainly no polls are allowed, but if it is legal and appropriate what is the sense on the forum for Greeks future in this area,

Oh and by the way Foot & Mouth is back again in UK literally the day after we got EEC clearence for re-exporting beef etc. I've spent the day going in and out of two farms spraying the car and my wellies. Another spiffing success for wonderful "Nu" Labour. Things can only get better.........yeah.

[paulh]

Well you are never going to get corruption out of politics in any country. However the bureaucratic systems in Greece which still have a significant legacy from Turkish days do lend themselves to corruption and they have to be changed (and that is happening slowly)

Yes the perceived wisdom does seem to indicate that there will be larger numbers of Greeks not voting (I know it is compulsory) or voting for fringe parties. Unless those fringe parties get 5% or more of the vote then no seat in parliament so very little chance of that affecting things any differently than it always has.

Its where those fringe votes come from that may have an effect. If they are taken equally from the major parties and move right or left accordingly then either no change or PASOK lose out because there are more fringe left wing parties this time and one of the new ones has quite a charismatic ex MP as leader.

There is a new method of proportioning seats in parliament to votes cast this election which if voting patterns were the same as 2004 would reduce PASOK's seats by 6 and New Democracy by 1 so PASOK have a disadvantage to get over there anyway. Karamalis has a more statesmanlike posture than PASOK's Papandreou who appears a bit of a wet rag. It shouldn't make a difference but it does to some degree.

So end analysis is that it depends on how many of the fringe parties get over 5%, KKE will but usually non of the others do. And it depends on the floating voters and non voters. Non voters is a new concept and may not happen significantly. Floating voters don't seem to be wavering much and none of the major parties has a major black mark against them that the other does not also have so as to push floaters. (not even the fires because people recognise that PASOK in their 12 years of tenure prior to the current government also did nothing or did things which exacerbated this problem).

The smart money has always been on "no change" with maybe a smaller majority but still a clear one. I personally see no reason to go against that.

[Carolina]

The elections were called six months early as New Democracy and Karamnalis were confident that their economic record would secure victory. Then along came the devastating fires which swept away people's confidence in the government, with blame and counter blame following.

Last polls. before September 1st, showed that more than 10% of the electorate are undecided, and 'protest votes' for the fringe parties are likely to be high. ND were still slightly ahead, although their lead had dropped. Even if the ruling ND wins, they may not get enough votes to form a government. Karamanlis has ruled out forming a coalition with the far-right LA.O.S party, which may enter parliament for the first time, and says he would call new elections if this is the case.

It looks like it's going to be a very close call.

[Muttly]

Or a bumpy ride. Tin helmets at the ready.