Mixos wrote:... Who do we believe?...
I'm not sure it's a simple question of who to believe. The people who are providing the funds that Tsipras wants and needs don't trust him. The 20 February agreement basically said, OK you can change the reforms you implement but they must have the same fiscal effect in terms of achieving a surplus as the previous agreement, give or take a little on timing. That means the Greek government has to put forward costed proposals that show they will achieve this. As far as I can see they haven't. They have put forward some ideas which is not the same as firm costed proposals.
As an example every government says they are going to tackle tax evasion. Exactly how are they going to tackle it? What measures are they going to take? What forms of tax evasion will those measures prevent? How much is being lost to the particular forms of evasion that they will tackle? What percentage of that can they stop? What evidence is there that they can achieve that? Have the Greek government put forward that level of in-depth analysis? From everything I have read the answer is no. You can repeat this analysis for everything they have proposed. To make it worse they are inhibiting the ability of the technical team to evaluate their proposals by refusing them access to government departments and accounts. If you were the leader of a Eurozone country what conclusion would you draw from that? Personally if I was in charge of the technical teams I would simply leave Greece and tell the Greek government that we will come back when they are prepared to give us the access we need.
In addition they agreed not to take any unilateral steps that would have negative fiscal implications. They have completely ignored that part of the agreement. You cannot abandon privatisations that are under-way without having a negative fiscal effect. You lose the revenue from those privatisations. You cannot reinstate public sector workers who had been sacked without having a negative fiscal effect. You have to pay their wages. You cannot increase salaries and pensions of public sector employees without having a negative fiscal effect. The government has now tabled bills on all these issues and by doing so have broken the agreement.
Finally they have done everything they possibly could to alienate their European partners. Treating them like idiots. Showing them disrespect. Demanding war reparations from the most influential country in the Eurozone. Accusing countries of conspiring against them, etc etc etc.
It doesn't matter what anybody thinks are the rights and wrongs of all these issues. It doesn't matter if you think Greece should be paid war reparations or workers should be re-hired or assets should not be sold off. Carrying out these actions makes it harder to reach an agreement where Greece gets the funds it needs. The leaders and the finance ministers of every Eurozone member state are simply doing whatever they think protects the interests of their own country.
I agree with Varoufakis that the conditions imposed by the Troika were wrong and caused, to a large extent, the current crisis. I also agree with the analysis in a recent ekathimerini article that the ND/PASOK coalition took all the wrong actions. That doesn't mean that the way the current government is behaving is right. They seem to have less political sense than a five year old.