Greece Referendum

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Referendum

Poll ended at Sat Jul 04, 2015 11:05 am

I believe the Greek government should accept the terms of the ultimatum issued by the creditors
8
19%
I believe the Greek government should reject the terms of the ultimatum issued by the creditors
35
81%
 
Total votes: 43

john4d
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Location: Near Vamos

Greece Referendum

Postby john4d » Sat Jun 27, 2015 11:05 am

If you were allowed to vote, how would YOU vote?

Let's use Kilkis's question

Explanation: In accordance with our election pledges, the Greek government has tried for five months to negotiate a deal with the creditors that will end austerity and return Greece to growth. The creditors have refused to negotiate on realistic proposals put forward by the Greek government, have continually tried to go back to the terms of the old, failed bailout agreement and have now issued an ultimatum which extends and increases austerity beyond that already suffered by the Greek people and does not include any debt relief. Since the Greek government has no mandate to accept this ultimatum this referendum is being held to obtain a mandate directly from the Greek electorate. Put a cross next to one of the two statements below:

1 I believe the Greek government should accept the terms of the ultimatum issued by the creditors
2 I believe the Greek government should reject the terms of the ultimatum issued by the creditors
There's no such thing as a bad taste joke

filippos
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Re: Greece Referendum

Postby filippos » Sat Jun 27, 2015 2:48 pm

I suspect a vote amongst foreigners here, especially retired foreigners, will be biassed towards rejection of the creditors' proposals. With the best will in the world to support the Greek people most of us will not be faced with another reduction in our income. Foreigners working here and dependent solely on income generated here will have problems similar to those visited upon Greeks as their earnings may fall or disappear completely but anyone with a foreign pension or other source of income will be relatively little affected economically. Sure, inflation will show its fangs, but whatever the new currency, that will devalue rapidly, we'll get more of it for our Pounds/Euros/Dollars/Krone: for Greek people it will represent another big reduction in income.

That having been said, I think Greece would be better (just) rejecting the creditors' ultimatum as I think it's the less bad option and offers the better chance of recovery over a shorter period. Either way it will be bloody painful.

Kilkis
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Re: Greece Referendum

Postby Kilkis » Sat Jun 27, 2015 3:23 pm

I basically agree with your analysis, Filippos, but I'm not sure which way I would vote. My sympathies are certainly with the Greek population. I certainly believe that the creditors ultimatum will impose further hardship on ordinary Greeks and is counter-productive in that it will not achieve its aims. Having said that I think there is also a significant risk that rejection will produce an outcome that is even worse for the Greek people. As was pointed out, in one of the better analytical articles, the Greek GDP is predominantly internal and a relatively small proportion is external. Only the external part benefits from a depreciating currency. It is also possible that the economy will suffer from shortages of imported items, because the depreciating currency will make them unaffordable at a national balance of trade level, and that could inhibit any growth in tourism, the main sector that would benefit from a currency fall.

I believe default and Grexit were the right solutions when the crisis first arose, following Iceland's lead, but now I am not so sure. A further fall in GDP and rise in unemployment from their current levels doesn't really bear thinking about. I'm not disagreeing with you but I'm certainly not confident it will produce the least worst outcome.

Warwick

bobscott
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Re: Greece Referendum

Postby bobscott » Sat Jun 27, 2015 4:33 pm

filippos wrote: I think Greece would be better (just) rejecting the creditors' ultimatum as I think it's the less bad option and offers the better chance of recovery over a shorter period. Either way it will be bloody painful.


I think I agree with you Phil. Understand Warwick's concern about shortages of imported goods etc, but I can't in all honesty see any good coming from the proposals the 'Institutions' (I think they belong in an Institution, frankly) are trying to blackmail Tsipras into accepting. At least Tsipras will be able to introduce some of the reforms that he has offered, instead of being told by the grey suits that he has to sign up to the devastating deal before he is allowed to do that. As you say, it will be bloody painful all round. It could be a time for 'All for one and one for all'? Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Greece Referendum

Postby Kilkis » Sat Jun 27, 2015 5:02 pm

Shortages are not my main concern, Bob. I just mention that they could inhibit a boom in tourism, which is always put forward as the main benefit of a depreciating currency. My main concern is that the deflationary spiral, caused by the austerity programme, will intensify rather than ease. More companies going bankrupt. Further increases in unemployment. Further reductions in GDP. I'm not saying it will happen. I sincerely hope it doesn't but it is a very real risk. Starting from the existing baseline, which is lower than the depth of the 30s depression, would be pretty horrific.

As I said before, I genuinely would not know which way to vote.

Warwick

filippos
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Re: Greece Referendum

Postby filippos » Sat Jun 27, 2015 5:50 pm

I think either choice will be catastrophic and any difference in outcome will be marginal, at least to begin with but with fighting character of the Greek people when they're really up against it ..............
I'm reminded of Churchill's, "Hence we will not say that Greeks fight like heroes, but that heroes fight like Greeks."

Kilkis
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Re: Greece Referendum

Postby Kilkis » Sat Jun 27, 2015 6:19 pm

Having just watched a press conference by Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem I'm not sure what the Greek people are voting for. According to him there were ongoing negotiations about the detail of the proposal last night when the Greek negotiators were pulled out by the Greek government. As far as the Eurogroup is concerned Greece has abandoned the negotiating process and there is no agreed proposal so there is nothing to vote for. He also said that Greece had requested an extension to the process and that had been rejected by the Eurogroup. As far as the Eurogroup is concerned the extension to the bailout process, agreed to in February, expires on Tuesday 30 June. After that it would be necessary to negotiate a completely new programme from scratch.

When the agreement expires on Tuesday, under its own rules, I think that the ECB can no longer provide Greece with Emergency Liquidity Assistance. That effectively means that the whole Greek banking system is insolvent. I could be wrong on this issue.

Warwick

Kilkis
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Re: Greece Referendum

Postby Kilkis » Sat Jun 27, 2015 9:14 pm

Strange. One story on ekathimerini won't link:

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_ar ... 015_551594 Eurogroup meets without Greece after warning
Greece's place in the euro currency bloc looked increasingly shaky on Saturday, when eurozone countries rejected a monthlong extension to its bailout program and the prime minister called for a risky popular vote on the country's financial future.

It reports "Not found The requested page cannot be found, please check its location and try again."

All other pages work. Cock up or Censorship?

Warwick

Clio
Posts: 1457
Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2007 4:54 pm

Re: Greece Referendum

Postby Clio » Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:21 am

What's at stake, way over and above a rise in ΦΠΑ or a cut pension:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/manuel- ... 65240.html

bobscott
Posts: 2066
Joined: Wed Aug 05, 2009 5:36 pm
Location: Kokkino Horio

Re: Greece Referendum

Postby bobscott » Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:22 am

Kilkis wrote:Strange. One story on ekathimerini won't link:

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_ar ... 015_551594 Eurogroup meets without Greece after warning
Greece's place in the euro currency bloc looked increasingly shaky on Saturday, when eurozone countries rejected a monthlong extension to its bailout program and the prime minister called for a risky popular vote on the country's financial future.

It reports "Not found The requested page cannot be found, please check its location and try again."

All other pages work. Cock up or Censorship?

Warwick


Worked OK for me this morning Warwick. Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Greece Referendum

Postby Kilkis » Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:44 am

Good article, Clio. It will be interesting to see what the ECB decides today. My guess is that they will withdraw ELA, citing their rules making it illegal for them to continue to provide it once Greece is no longer in a programme. They might withdraw it immediately, because Greek negotiators have withdrawn from the process, or withdraw it when the extension expires on Tuesday. Either way I think they will want to create some chaos before the referendum to convince voters to vote to accept an agreement.

Early polls suggest the majority of Greeks will vote to accept the deal. Effectively that would be a public vote of no-confidence in Syriza.

All over the world in small ways people are finding ways to challenge the neo-liberal experiment instigated by Reaganomics. Crypto currencies, peer-to-peer lending and currency exchanges, and crowd funding all dis-intermediate the financial system that is used to suck wealth out of the people. At some point the BRICS and others in the SCO will challenge the dollar hegemony and when that happens the whole house of cards will fall. Sadly the outcome could be a major war.

Warwick

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Greece Referendum

Postby Kilkis » Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:45 am

bobscott wrote:...Worked OK for me this morning Warwick. Bob.


Yes. I think it was just a technical hiccup on the web site.

Warwick

YoMo2
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Location: Milatos, Lasithi

Re: Greece Referendum

Postby YoMo2 » Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:52 am

Clio wrote:What's at stake, way over and above a rise in ΦΠΑ or a cut pension:

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/manuel- ... 65240.html


Clio, very interesting, very accurate, and very depressing........

Andrew
"It's all in the implementation"

Guy M
Posts: 201
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2013 9:20 pm
Location: Kalamitsi Alexandrou

Re: Greece Referendum

Postby Guy M » Sun Jun 28, 2015 8:11 am

Announcing the referendum at short notice while negotiations are going on, without warning to the other side, with a referendum date after Greece is in default is irresponsible gesture politics. This government, like others, appears run by egos and callous as to the consequences of its actions on its people. A bad day.

filippos
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Re: Greece Referendum

Postby filippos » Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:14 am

It's about time someone stood up to the EU elite.

The writing was on the wall when they insisted, supported by blackmail, on second referenda in the few countries that voted 'No' in their first ones. The writing turned from lower case to capitals when they took over democratically elected governments. I wouldn't say it's a good day but it's better than a bad one.


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