The End Game

For discussion, news, comments, questions and information about Crete & Greece.
Clio
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Re: The End Game

Postby Clio » Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:05 pm

Each PM, over the past few years has attempted to take on the EU all have been forced out


Loretta,could you explain the above in 50 words or fewer but without using the words "shyster", "bankster" or "gangster", and giving names, dates packdrill and mothers' first names?

Could you also write out 100 times: “It was NOT 89%, as has already been pointed out to me very recently.”?

Brian, assuming you are right about this doomsday scenario which you describe so graphically, can I ask you to tell us in detail precisely how Greece might have avoided coming to this pass? Say, 1000 words?

Can I also ask you to explain what evidence you have for the serious allegation that members of this community are “recent pseudo-socialists”? Perhaps you would also like to say whether longstanding, dyed-in-the-wool socialists are more, or less, acceptable? Since you are privy to the political leanings of fellow posters here, can we ask you to share with us your own allegiance?

And, finally, to give us an idea where, exactly, you are going to be when it all kicks off? Are you actually in Crete and if not, have you ever been there?

Clio
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Joined: Thu Nov 15, 2007 4:54 pm

Re: The End Game

Postby Clio » Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:11 pm

The Guardian's rolling live coverage of the events in Brussels

http://www.theguardian.com/business/liv ... ntrys-fate

suggests that this one will run and run, again. The splendid Paul Mason sums up the state of non-play:

"the exact same situation as for 6 months. But Germans now openly pushing for Grexit, IMF for debt relief, EU paralysed"

See you in the penalty area....

Guy M
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Re: The End Game

Postby Guy M » Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:20 pm

The idea that total anarchy will result from whatever happens this weekend is, of course, complete nonsense. The creditors may have among them those who do not trust the Greeks - possibly with reason, given that many of the Greek proposals were those against which Syriza campaigned with passion a week ago - but they will all be concerned that their legacy is not causing another Somalia; anyway, despite what may be thought, nearly everyone goes into politics in democracies these days to make the Workd a better place, not to implement some evil World domination plan.

Trust does seem to be the big stumbling block right now. Maybe this, as in so much of what's gone on with this crisis, reflects politicians listening to their own electorates. There are many people in Europe who feel great compassion for the tragedy of Greece, but there are many who just don't believe Syriza after months of mudslinging back and forth. In this regard, surely the best thing Varoufakis could do for his country now is to shut up and not continue his argument with Schaube, as he did in the Guardiwn newspaper today.

Kilkis
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Re: The End Game

Postby Kilkis » Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:56 pm

Absolutely no problem at all, Tim. All Greece has to do is run a trade surplus with the rest of the Eurozone. Euro will flood into Greece to pay for all the exported goods and Greece can then use those Euro in its normal economy. What do you think the chance of that happening is? Unless the Greek people believe there is a viable economy they will continue to withdraw Euro from their bank accounts as fast as they are allowed to. No bank anywhere in the world, however strong, can withstand that. If the ECB does not provide liquidity the Greek banks collapse and in today's world no economy can survive without an effective banking system. If Greece leaves the Euro it can print as much as it likes of its own currency and recapitalise the banks so the economy can function.

Andrew, a recent article in ekathimerini likened the referendum to the one held in 1974 and painted current events as momentous as other pivotal moments in Greece's history. I did post in the comment section that I hoped it didn't turn out to be closer to 1967. I am well aware of the more extreme possible outcomes of the situation. I just hope they don't materialise.

Warwick

filippos
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Re: The End Game

Postby filippos » Sat Jul 11, 2015 11:34 pm

YoMo2 wrote:You're wasting your breath trying to show Brian the light, Warwick.
All he (Brian) has convinced me of is that he knows FA, has his own opinion and will accept no other: a bit like the fanatics at each end of the 'climate change' issue. Neither can possibly be wrong. Everyone else is a misguided moron.

Brian
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Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 11:21 pm

Re: The End Game

Postby Brian » Sat Jul 11, 2015 11:57 pm

Ok Filippos/Clio you have succeeded I think it's about time I exited stage left.
Rather than argue the case, both of you descend to personal mud-slinging and cursing. It would be a pretty boring world,don't you think, if we all agreed on all issues.
I know the truth is sometimes hard to accept and I know I paint a pretty bleak and graphic picture, but I prefer to say it as it is than indulge in this wooly thinking that seems to have dominated this particular subject over the past few weeks.
Kilkis I admire your calmness and reasoned argument (even though we might not agree occasionally :wink:) but your point about capitalism acquiring 99% of the world's wealth is an argument that has been peddled from time immemorial. The greeks above any other race of people should know this and should have factored this in when they dealt with the big bad guys and accepted billions of euro.
My final word is that while the greeks are a nation they are far from a modern state.

Loretta9

Re: The End Game

Postby Loretta9 » Sun Jul 12, 2015 1:03 am

What is this ? Is it that I have to comment in such a way as to meet with the approval of one or two users of this site ? I am a mature adult who has vast experience in life. I comment in a way which I feel is appropriate. The words I use are not up for examination for approval. You can look over my posts from 2009 and you will find that, despite my direct use of words, that I have been 100% right in my declarations on the Greek socio economic problem. Often to ridicule from the majority of regular users of This site. Not once have I ever asked or questioned on a personal basis. Play the ball not the player. I said years ago that Greece will choose a Socialist Government on an anti austerity ticket and will use Russia as leverage to take on the EC. All of you regular users of this site ridiculed my comments. Instead you debated interest rates and opined your academic prowess. The words corruption - criminal bankers - scum bag dictators in the EU are conspicuous by their absence of use by you regular posters. I have to ask ..
What planet are you on ? How high are you that another commentator on here has to explain or correct comments which don't marry with your own. ? You seem to dance around the obvious.I never do Political Correctness, pussy footing the issues is not my way. But don't construe that as my not having respect for others.

Kilkis
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Re: The End Game

Postby Kilkis » Sun Jul 12, 2015 10:30 am

Brian wrote:... but your point about capitalism acquiring 99% of the world's wealth is an argument that has been peddled from time immemorial...


I didn't talk "about capitalism acquiring 99 % of the worlds wealth". I have no interest in any "ism". Also capitalism died a long time ago. Since I am a scientist I will try to draw a comparison with science.

Nature does whatever nature does. Science does not attempt to explain what nature is, it attempts to explain how nature behaves. Engineering takes the explanations provided by science and uses it to create products. Some of those products may even attempt to change nature's behaviour. There are many features of engineering but there are two very important factors. If the scientific theory on which a product design is based is wrong then the product won't work. Even if the scientific theory is correct, if it is incorrectly applied when designing the product again the product won't work.

Markets have existed since mankind began living in social groups. Markets behave however markets behave. Economics is analogous to science and attempts to explain how markets behave, although, sadly, mainstream economics does not follow scientific methodology. All the "isms" are simply theories produced by the study of economics to try to understand how markets behave. Having begun only relatively recently compared to the length of time science has had to develop it is not surprising that economic theories are still quite immature but most mainstream economists don't seem to recognise that. Government economic policy is the equivalent of engineering. It tries to apply whichever theory it endorses to control how the economy behaves. Effectively how the markets behave. It suffers from the same problems as physical engineering. If the theory is wrong the policy will not work. If the theory is incorrectly applied the policy will not work. The Eurozone exhibits both faults so the failure is particularly bad.

During the Reagan/Thatcher administrations a new economic policy based on moneterism was introduced. On the back of that theory changes were made to how banks are allowed to behave that provided them with the opportunity to engage in wealth transfer. That system has been successfully operating ever since. It is most obvious if you look at USA GDP growth and wages growth. Up to the start of this experiment wages and GDP grew at the same rate. Since the experiment began wage growth has been completely flattened while GDP continued to grow at about the same rate. This means that virtually all GDP growth since Reaganomics began has gone to the top 1 % in society. Another measure is the world distribution of wealth survey. This shows that the proportion of world wealth owned by the top 10 % increasing every year. A third measure shows the incomes of the top 10 % in the UK increasing rapidly from the start of the crisis to the present day while the income of the bottom 90 % decreased in real terms. These are all measurements, not theories.

Since the start of Reagonomics we have not had capitalism at all. All the normal market mechanisms that are described in capitalism have been suppressed. In capitalism the markets are allowed to do whatever they do completely freely. In practise interference in those markets did occur but was limited to correcting the adverse outcomes that those markets throw up. Today all the major countries are operating control economies which are no different in principle to the control economies of the various communist regimes. Obviously they are not based on the same "isms" that communist countries adopted as their economic theory but the control is no different.

I would be delighted to see a return to capitalism with minimum market intervention. The world would be a much better place if it happened. The absolute best outcome would be the wide recognition that capital can achieve nothing without labour and labour can achieve nothing without capital. The relationship between capital and labour should be symbiotic not confrontational. Some companies recognise this but most don't. The responsibility of a board of directors is to achieve the best sustainable long term return for its investors. The responsibility of a trade union is to achieve the best sustainable long term rise in income for the workers. Both sides should recognise that they can both achieve their aims working together. Instead both sides go for maximum short term gain and the overall long term outcome is worse.

There are economists in the world who are using the mathematics that was developed to solve problems in science, especially for complex systems, and applying them to model economic systems and markets. Up to now they are being ignored. Eventually a crash will be big enough that the mainstream will have to take notice of them.

Warwick

Tim
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Re: The End Game

Postby Tim » Sun Jul 12, 2015 11:33 am

Unless the Greek people believe there is a viable economy they will continue to withdraw Euro from their bank accounts as fast as they are allowed to.


Yep. Thought there was a hole in my thesis.

Thanks, Warwick.

Tim

Kilkis
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Re: The End Game

Postby Kilkis » Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:02 pm

If the reports of the negotiations are to be believed, I think the probability of Greece staying in the Euro is now virtually zero. Tsipras could offer to hand over the whole of Greece lock stock and barrel to the creditors and they would still say no deal. The right wing Finnish part who are in coalition have said that they will bring down their government if they sign up to a deal. Full stop. Schäuble is offering occupation of Greece by Germany as a condition of a further bailout or a five year Euro exit. I think he is only offering an alternative at all so he can claim Greece left of its own accord, they didn't kick them out. The old soviet block states are violently against any deal and I cannot see anything that would change their mind. France, Italy and Cyprus are the only ones really supporting a deal. Some of the others are not hard-line anti but they certainly are not hard-line in support. They carry on talking but, with those attitudes, I don't see where a deal can come from.

Warwick

Maud
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Re: The End Game

Postby Maud » Sun Jul 12, 2015 12:29 pm

Just watched a few interviews on the BBC 24 Hour News. One Greek ex-pat living in London made the same point the Kilkis made in an earlier post. It is something that has also been bothering me. - The Greek creditors would rather do business with previous Greek governments, who have been shown to be corrupt, than to deal with Syriza. Very worrying!

All this talk today about 'trust' is very sad.

Topdriller
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Re: The End Game

Postby Topdriller » Sun Jul 12, 2015 1:06 pm

One can understand the perceived need for and the genuine concerns re trust if you look at what previous Greek administrations promised to deliver but consistently failed to do in their entirety.

More to the point, the Syriza led government came to power promising to dismantle many of the reforms the Troika demanded for previous loans / bailouts (call them what you want) and so trust is an issue.

As much as I like Varoufakis and his grasp of economics he managed to piss of the European political elite who - like it or not - control the money tap. History - always written by the winners - may even blame him directly for the Greek exit from the Euro and perhaps the EU itself.

The ongoing talks have divided Europe and a divided Europe run by politicians who need to listen to their own national electorates means Greece will either be offered a far worse deal than they rejected a week ago and it will bring down the Government or / and they will default and exit.

My fear now is on a messy exit and all that it entails. The worst case scenario would be a Greek military intervention if there is a messy exit. It would perhaps be couched in humanitarian, the general public's interest, the need to maintain law and order etc.

I only say this because unless there's a quick move to a national unity coalition I can't see Syriza steering a broken Greece out of this mess.

Jon
We need men who dream of things that never were.

bobscott
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Re: The End Game

Postby bobscott » Sun Jul 12, 2015 1:32 pm

Maud wrote:Just watched a few interviews on the BBC 24 Hour News. One Greek ex-pat living in London made the same point the Kilkis made in an earlier post. It is something that has also been bothering me. - The Greek creditors would rather do business with previous Greek governments, who have been shown to be corrupt, than to deal with Syriza. Very worrying!

All this talk today about 'trust' is very sad.


This has been the problem all along Maud. And in addition, the eurocrats don't recognise that there is any other way than theirs. The didn't understand Tsipras, because he didn't conform to what they saw not just 'the norm' but he wasn't part of their 'set'. Remember all the fuss about his turning up to meetings without a tie? Trivial, of course, but it shows up the mentality of the eurocrats that there was even comment about it. No tie? So bloody what? The man had a mandate; it didn't fit the eurocrat norm; in that case he wasn't credible.

Unless and until this vicious circle is broken, we are all in a downward spiral. Remember the 19th century Aglican hymn 'All things bright and beautiful'. One of the biggest pieces of Tory propaganda ever written. Verse 3:

The rich man in his castle,
The poor man at his gate,
God made them high and lowly,
And ordered their estate.

Sic semper erat! Long live the revolution. Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Kilkis
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Re: The End Game

Postby Kilkis » Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:53 pm

I spent all day yesterday sharpening my pitchfork and preparing torches, Bob.

Warwick

bobscott
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Re: The End Game

Postby bobscott » Sun Jul 12, 2015 3:02 pm

Kilkis wrote:I spent all day yesterday sharpening my pitchfork and preparing torches, Bob.

Warwick


But did you turn your sword into a ploughshare my friend? If not, perhaps the time to start is NOW! Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!


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