After The End Game

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Clio
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After The End Game

Postby Clio » Thu Jul 16, 2015 8:43 am

A bleak night, with little for anyone's comfort.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/j ... er-consent

I would commend this video though as a rare example of an honest politician, telling the truth:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/vid ... vote-video

And, though I'm sure it's not an original thought, I will now put money on the Left gathering round Varoufakis, with a new political party emerging from Syriza's ground work. I don't say, because I don't know,that that will necessarily be a good thing - just that a Syriza Mark 2 will be better prepared for the turbulent times ahead.

Clio
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Re: After The End Game

Postby Clio » Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:21 pm

Is that it, then? Nobody has anything to say about where we're at, not even the news that the banks may well open on Monday?

Kilkis
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Re: After The End Game

Postby Kilkis » Thu Jul 16, 2015 10:53 pm

What is there to say, Clio.

    1The Greek GDP will continue to decline but probably at a slower rate than it would have done under Grexit?
    2 The banking system will not collapse but it will not function effectively?
    3 Unemployment will remain persistently high.
    4 The creditor countries can go on pretending that Greece will one day repay what they are owed? That will protect their leaders' political position.
    5 World debt and leverage will continue to increase.
    6 The next crash will be bigger than the last one.
    7 Central banks will try to solve it by creating yet more debt.
    8 The top 1 % will continue to get richer.
    9 The bottom 99 % will continue to get poorer
    10 The cycle will continue.

Sorry to be negative but can anyone present a realistic alternative and justify it? Governments all over the world believe that they now control the markets. They don't. Eventually they will run out of long grass to kick the can into. In the end the outcome will reflect what would have happened if they had let the markets have their way at the beginning and then set about cleaning up the mess, except the mess will be much much worse because they interfered. The whole Greek bailout is about 10 % of what Italy and Spain need over the next few years. Does anybody really believe that is going to come from the private sector? People like Draghi seem to have a very simplistic view of economics. Japan has carried out QE to infinity and America has done pretty much the same so Europe can carry out QE to infinity. He doesn't seem to realise that there are massive differences between USA and Japanese debt compared to Europe. Japanese debt is almost exclusively held within Japan. the USA has the world's reserve currency. I think he is in for a rude awakening at some point.

Warwick

Phaedra
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Re: After The End Game

Postby Phaedra » Thu Jul 16, 2015 11:58 pm

I just don't know what to say. I'm hugely disappointed by Tsipras and Syriza. They were elected to ease Austerity and yet they have committed Greece to further austerity and selling off state assets at the worst time possible. It will be a firesale and a huge loss for the future of Greece. IF They had no plan B in place e.g. leave the Eurozone, then what on earth did they think they could achieve?

Clio
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Re: After The End Game

Postby Clio » Fri Jul 17, 2015 12:08 am

OK,Warwick, so do we just say: it's all hopeless, we're all doomed, and go off and cultivate our gardens?

Or do we take an interest in the fledgling groups and organisations, including Syriza, which agree with your prognosis but differ from you in believing that in trying to break the cycle, we confirm our humanity and may just succeed, sometime down the generations? I don't expect to see that cycle broken in my lifetime but I remember very clearly how it felt to want to change the world, and to believe it possible, and I hope that in a small way we handed on a baton. This new generation have learned from our painful naivete to be cynical and wary and better prepared for the boots that trample on dreams. Not prepared enough, though, as Varoufakis admitted honestly: they understimated the power and malignity of the forces ranged against them.

But if one thing has been gained, it's that the world at large is now alerted to the dark arts practised by those forces, and with the Internet, that information moves fast and wide. It's only a few weeks since I read a suggestion, in one of the more far-out,purple-prose anti-establishment blogs, that the real agenda of the Eurocrats was regime change. I remember thinking - because I was still accustomed to seeing the EU as the essentially benign institution which could be forgiven everything for the Pax Europa - that that was a bit over the top. Yet within days some of the world's most respected commentators and publications were saying the same thing - detailing it, and deploring it.

I believe that a great many people in Germany have had their eyes opened to what Schauble and co have been doing in their name, and that a lot of them, particularly the young, are going to be signing up to this as yet amorphous movement for the breaking of the cycle.

YoMo2
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Re: After The End Game

Postby YoMo2 » Fri Jul 17, 2015 7:42 am

Clio, I very much hope you are right, and I admire your idealism.

Andrew

Kilkis
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Re: After The End Game

Postby Kilkis » Fri Jul 17, 2015 8:43 am

There is only one way Syriza can break the cycle, Clio, and that is to remove Greece from the Euro. The people of Greece have told them quite firmly that they don't want that. Surely the people of Greece must realise that as long as they insist on staying in the Euro then they have given up all control of their economy? Syriza is then a government in name only. It doesn't matter what you or I think or support, only the Greek people can decide their fate.

I don't blame Syriza for failing to achieve their goals. It was obvious that those goals were impossible. I blame them for selling those goals to the Greek people. They did what every other politician has done for ever. They sold the message that they thought would get them elected. I would have more respect if they told the truth. Virtually all the problems in the world exist because politicians never tell their electorate the truth. They spin a fairy tale that is most likely to win their votes.

Syriza should have framed the referendum question completely honestly.

"The rest of the Eurozone have presented the Greek negotiating team with an ultimatum:

    1 Either we accept more austerity, further reductions in GDP and increased unemployment in order to stay in the Eurozone

    2 Leave the Eurozone, return to a Greek national currency and default on all our debts.

Place a cross next to the option you wish the Greek government to adopt"

Since the creditors objected to the convoluted question that was asked perhaps the stark reality of the above choice might have given them pause for thought. I think that talk of regime change is just a conspiracy theorist way of describing reality. The people making the decisions are elected solely by their own citizens. They want an outcome that will satisfy their own citizens. They want a Greek government that is compliant and meets their objective of satisfying their own electorate. Syriza weren't compliant so they set out to crush them. It's nothing to do with Syriza's political ideology. They didn't need to conspire. The self interest of every single other country in the Eurozone is for Greece to make a surplus and repay the money loaned to them. They all acted in their own self interest. They don't care if the loan is repaid with a rich man's pot of gold or the widow's mite as long as they get their money. The rich man and the widow are not citizens of their country.

Warwick

bobscott
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Re: After The End Game

Postby bobscott » Fri Jul 17, 2015 2:10 pm

Kilkis wrote:There is only one way Syriza can break the cycle, Clio, and that is to remove Greece from the Euro. The people of Greece have told them quite firmly that they don't want that. Surely the people of Greece must realise that as long as they insist on staying in the Euro then they have given up all control of their economy? Syriza is then a government in name only. It doesn't matter what you or I think or support, only the Greek people can decide their fate.

I don't blame Syriza for failing to achieve their goals. It was obvious that those goals were impossible. I blame them for selling those goals to the Greek people. They did what every other politician has done for ever. They sold the message that they thought would get them elected. I would have more respect if they told the truth. Virtually all the problems in the world exist because politicians never tell their electorate the truth. They spin a fairy tale that is most likely to win their votes.

Syriza should have framed the referendum question completely honestly.

"The rest of the Eurozone have presented the Greek negotiating team with an ultimatum:

    1 Either we accept more austerity, further reductions in GDP and increased unemployment in order to stay in the Eurozone

    2 Leave the Eurozone, return to a Greek national currency and default on all our debts.

Place a cross next to the option you wish the Greek government to adopt"


Warwick


As usual Warwick, I agree with most of what you say. The Red-Herring in your argument though is the second question you would have posed had you been the one to draft the referendum paper. At the time, and this is crucial, there were no plans within the Greek banking system (so we are told) to have a Greek national currency. There was nothing to issue to people. Nothing in the banks. Just the prospect of utter chaos.

Is it just not possible that by accepting these outrageous and punitive measures, Tsipras has given himself and those who govern the Greek nation time to make some kind of preparation for a Grexit - i.e. to actually have something physically tangible to give to people to replace the euro, and a system in place to handle it?

Grexit was on the cards a long time before Tsipras came on the scene, and none of his predecessors made any moves to provide for it. In his 6 months, he has had his hands full (quoting the sickening Tory mantra we hear nearly every day) 'Cleaning up after the mess left by our predecessors in government' . Whatever else, his arrival was a breath of fresh air. An alternative to the passive greedy politicians of the last 4 decades. The country now has some breathing space in which to remain alive for a while longer.

The real test of leadership is going to come from an organised Grexit , by Greece and on terms favourable to Greece. 'Τι να κάνουμε' has to be replaced by a willingness to think ahead and make workable plans. It remains to be seen whether the Great Greek Public can rise to that challenge.

Bob.
Yesterday today was tomorrow. Don't dilly dally!

Kilkis
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Re: After The End Game

Postby Kilkis » Fri Jul 17, 2015 2:47 pm

bobscott wrote:... At the time, and this is crucial, there were no plans within the Greek banking system (so we are told) to have a Greek national currency. There was nothing to issue to people. Nothing in the banks. Just the prospect of utter chaos...


I agree but I would make two additional comments:

1 Varoufakis proposed rejecting the bailout ultimatum without going to a referendum. He proposed issuing Greek government IOUs denominated in Euro to be used internally in Greece as a parallel currency to the actual Euro. He believed this would increase the pressure on the creditors to offer a better deal. I have no idea if this would have worked or what the detailed consequences would be but, whatever we might think of Varoufakis as a negotiator, he is not a stupid economist. He must have thought it stood some chance of working. Tsipras and a few of his close advisers rejected the idea and went the referendum route instead. This IOU type currency could act as a bridge to a full national currency.

2 While Syriza might have believed they could renegotiate with the creditors, get a better deal and stay in the Euro, even they must have recognised that they might not be successful. It doesn't require a genius to understand what the alternatives are if you are not successful. Prepare for those alternatives even before they ever stood for parliament. I would have thought that people like Varoufakis and Tsakalotos had the combined knowledge and skill to design a Grexit strategy and put it in place ready to execute quickly before they were ever elected.

Warwick

Clio
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Re: After The End Game

Postby Clio » Fri Jul 17, 2015 3:14 pm

The country now has some breathing space in which to remain alive for a while longer.


Indeed. And some money coming in, and a stabilising banking sector, and universal acknowledgement of the impossibility of the debt....

There is a school of thought which says that in accepting that outrageous deal Tsipras was playing a longer game, aiming to achieve these improved conditions as a basis for a government-managed Grexit which might, possibly have been the aim all along.

filippos
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Re: After The End Game

Postby filippos » Fri Jul 17, 2015 4:50 pm

Kilkis wrote:I think that talk of regime change is just a conspiracy theorist way of describing reality. The people making the decisions are elected solely by their own citizens. They want an outcome that will satisfy their own citizens. They want a Greek government that is compliant and meets their objective of satisfying their own electorate.
One elephant (of several) in the room is that so many of these elected and appointed elite want to feather their own nests with as much goose down as possible. To this end they indulge in much lobbying, skulduggery and have many undisclosed interests (or stuff they try to hide in the shadows) that conflict.

ScotinCrete
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Re: After The End Game

Postby ScotinCrete » Fri Jul 17, 2015 7:57 pm

Does anyone think that Greece will make the deep structural reforms needed. Smile sweetly and prepare a Plan B for 2 or 3 years time with an economy which has some chance of survival so that a 'Velvet Grexit' with continued EU membership [and funds] could be a Greek rather than a German option?
Greek people have such pride in their nation that a communicator like Tsiparas should be able to carry the people forward on a 3 year plan to transform Greece?
I did check and the word plan does exist in Greek - maybe surprisingly :D

Carolina
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Re: After The End Game

Postby Carolina » Fri Jul 17, 2015 9:54 pm

Clio wrote:
The country now has some breathing space in which to remain alive for a while longer.


Indeed. And some money coming in, and a stabilising banking sector, and universal acknowledgement of the impossibility of the debt....

There is a school of thought which says that in accepting that outrageous deal Tsipras was playing a longer game, aiming to achieve these improved conditions as a basis for a government-managed Grexit which might, possibly have been the aim all along.


This ain't finished yet. Elections in September / October by which time they will have the full Grexit plan in place?

http://www.stokokkino.gr/article/100000 ... or-October

SatCure
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Re: After The End Game

Postby SatCure » Sat Jul 18, 2015 9:52 am

bobscott wrote:Is it just not possible that by accepting these outrageous and punitive measures, Tsipras has given himself and those who govern the Greek nation time to make some kind of preparation for a Grexit - i.e. to actually have something physically tangible to give to people to replace the euro, and a system in place to handle it?

This was my thought, too. Or at least my hope - that Tsipras' acquiescence was to buy time in order to exit gracefully.
Θα δούμε.


(Attribution Edited.)
Last edited by SatCure on Sat Jul 18, 2015 4:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Kilkis
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Re: After The End Game

Postby Kilkis » Sat Jul 18, 2015 12:17 pm

Post deleted. No longer relevant.

Warwick
Last edited by Kilkis on Sun Jul 19, 2015 10:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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