The Next Government?

[Kilkis]

With the race to the election officially started, if these polls are accurate and that's a big IF, it looks like it is going to be very difficult to form the next government: http://www.ekathimerini.com/201014/arti ... s-indicate

Syriza would gain 130 seats under the distribution reported. Tsipras has said that he would not cooperate with anyone from the old cadres so that rules out ND, PASOK and the Union of Centrists who would have 98 seats between them. I cannot imagine anybody cooperating with Golden Dawn and on past form KKE always refuse to cooperate with anybody. These two would have a total of 37 seats. I cannot see how they could cooperate with Popular Unity since they split from Syriza and they would have 16 seats. That leaves Potami with 19 seats so still not enough to form a majority government even if Syriza and Potami could reach a compromise, which is doubtful.

The other polls quoted do not have full information so it isn't possible to calculate these alternative outcomes. If ND managed to overhaul Syriza so their percentages were reversed but everything else stayed the same then ND might be able to form a government. If they cooperated with any two of PASOK, Potami and Union of Centrists they would have an overall majority with between 158 and 163 seats. That would rise to 177 seats if all four parties formed a coalition, although it would probably be a bit fractious having PASOK and the Union of Centrists in the same room. We would then be back to a government that is dominated by the people who created the mess in the first place.

Warwick

[Carolina]

Is the pesky media at it again (No/Yes vote) ?

Another survey here http://www.bridgingeurope.net/nationwid ... -2015.html puts Syriza on 26.8%, ND on 18.3% (25% and 22% respectively in ekathimerini).

Tsipras approval score 43% and Meimarakis (ND) 29% in this poll vs ekathimerini poll (conducted by Skai TV) gives 25% supporting Tsipras and 22% Meimarakis.

[Kilkis]

To be fair to Ekathimerini they do quote other polls with spreads in the two main parties ranging from 26/15 % to 29/27.8 %. I used the University of Macedonia poll to analyse what the outcome would be because it gave results for all the parties over 3 %. The poll you link Carol still puts Syriza on 147, so no overall majority, and all the smaller parties around 21/22 seats.

Warwick

[Kilkis]

A person who comments regularly on Ekathimerini has produced a poll of polls. See: https://www.flickr.com/photos/135855845 ... 7506400290 He is anti-Syriza and pro-ND so he tends to construct it to demonstrate how ND can win, as part of a centrist coalition, but the figures are accurate I believe. They give some idea of the spreads and also the number of not decided, some of whom might not vote.

Warwick

[Kilkis]

If anyone doubts the pro-ND agenda of Ekathimerini I think this article pretty much nails it: http://www.ekathimerini.com/201043/opin ... n-of-worms Thirteen paragraphs of why it can't possibly work if Syriza get a majority with a concluding paragraph that, of course, it would all be wonderful if ND won. I'm sure it would be wonderful for Alafouzos if ND won.

Warwick

[SteveH]

Read an interesting comment suggesting Syriza's best hope for a continuing future within the Greek political scene, would be to come second in this election. With the 3rd MoU in place, they argued that, any government that continued to implement it would become so damaged for the medium term future, so as to become unelectable. Seems a reasonable & cogent point to me.

Maybe this is, in part, Tsipras's reasoning for calling this election. He & his party have made some naive mistakes, but it would be a deep shame for them to disappear from the Greek political scene.

Look guys, let’s try to put it all together because we are losing the plot here regarding the anxiety of who will govern next in Greece.

It used to be a time that a Greek political party will take over governance via elections for roughly a 2-4 year period and then pass on the mess created as liability of the next (successor) party. This for years was the political ping-pong between ND and Pasok as we knew it Greek politics.

This is no longer the case because of the Troika or Quadriga’s presence. In essence (and despite the deep injustice of the whole set up) the government which will take over Greece in 2-4 years from now is guaranteed to have a much better managed economy and a platform to claim future success. Therefore the old model of passing along your mess and poison the well for the successor party does not exist in Greek politics anymore (for as long as Quadriga’s supervision of Greece is on – which for purposes of this analysis let’s assume it will be for a long time).

The upside of this new Greek political reality is that, at tremendous social and political cost, a sort of financial equilibrium has been achieved. The downside of this new reality is that you don’t want to be the party that implements this austerity model because a.) basically you no longer govern w/ Quadriga breathing down your neck and b.) the damage to your name and reputation is great and impossible to either ignore or absorb.

Taking all of the above into account the bottom line is that you should avoid (punt at) being the governing party in Greece at this particular point in time because your damages/losses would be far greater than imagined. Therefore (and let’s invoke Game Theory terms for Yanis’ sake) the whole strategy and tactics must ensure how this burden of “high wear and tear governance” mode is taken over by (more likely forced upon) your opposition.

Therefore it’s quite clear that Tsipras’ best choice is to allow ND to win the next parliamentary election and clearly avoid a catastrophic experience of implementing the Schauble program at his personal and party’s great loss. Another way of thinking about this is that if Schauble insists on an “austerity for cash” program (such is the case with the 3rd MOU) then it’s Schauble responsibility to go and find a suicidal Greek party (or coalition of suicidal Greek parties) to implement such monstrosity because no sane political party could actually do it.

Summary: Tsipras and Syriza must ensure 2nd place in the upcoming September 20th election provided that they are smart enough to wear down their opposition and then have an exceptionally smooth ride by winning the next elections following the upcoming Greek parliamentary election of next month.

From here:- http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/08/27/in ... n-beckons/

[Loretta9]

And all because Tsipras did not act on the mandate he is currently requesting confirmation of. When you sit on the fence you get a good view of both sides but your mind is focussed upon trying to keep balance with your feet not firmly grounded.
If you remove the names nothing has changed since 2008. Except that the EU - ECB have galvonised their power and rule over Greece.

[Kilkis]

The linked Q&A article is worth reading in full. For clarity, in case people don't follow the link, the quote posted by SteveH above is not from the article itself but from one of the reader's comments on the article, i.e. it is not Varoufakis who said this.

I can see one possible flaw in the logic. If ND form a government they will sell very hard the message that, "Don't blame us. We have no option but to implement the programme that Syriza signed up to. If you are suffering it is not our fault it is Syriza's fault. If we had been in power we would never have agreed to this deal. If Syriza hadn't forced an election and we had stayed in power we would have exited the original bailout programme, have a budget surplus, the economy would be expanding, unemployment would be falling, incomes would be rising and we would be well on the way to getting debt restructuring". The validity of the message doesn't matter, I think it is a narrative that a lot of Greeks would buy into.

Warwick

[Tim]

The question remains though:

Will any party, or combination of parties, possess the political will and capability to carry out the austerity program as demanded by the Eurogroupe?

I've seen no evidence over the past few years to suggest that this will be the case.

Tim

[Kilkis]

Probably not. The programme will probably cause even more depression of the economy even if they do fully implement it.

Warwick

[Loretta9]

I am not sure on Varoufakis but his translation of the gobbledegook - Orwellian double speak, in the aforesaid link is 100% in tune with my own views. Views I have expressed many times on this site to the responses of "typical lefty rubbish".
At last someone of considerable status I can bounce off.

[Kilkis]

I would not trust Varoufakis as far as I could throw him...

I am not sure on Varoufakis but his translation of the gobbledegook - Orwellian double speak, in the aforesaid link is 100% in tune with my own views...

I think I'm a bit confused? He is somebody that you totally disagree with and wouldn't trust an inch but he is also someone you 100 % agree with? An interesting viewpoint?

Warwick

[Phild]

Could it be...

Orwellian double speak

[Loretta9]

"We have now sunk to a depth at which restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men" > George Orwell.
If you Phild had read the link you could not, but then you obviously have, failed to grasp the "double speak" in fact it is purposely phrased in double speak. Varoufakis was primarily demonstrating double speak.
Ye doth take the pee a little too readily.
It may assist if i example thus ... Jimmy Saville "Sir" - KBE - MBE - BBC et al..... not forgetting Ozzy Rolf ,, both had Royal approval ... Her Majesty, her good self no less. I along with many millions of people felt there was "something of the night" about Saville.... at the same time I acknowledged his skill in presenting TV shows.
I do hope this aids your understanding of what was already a perfectly worded comment.

[Clio]

Loretta I think you have just invented Triple Speak. Dunno about Phil but | genuinely do not understand a word of the above. Who or what was Ozzy Rolf when he was at home (which I take it was a long way from Greece and her next government, the subject of the post....)