Virus

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DJ
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Location: East Barnet, North London, UK

Virus

Postby DJ » Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:22 pm


mouche
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Re: Virus

Postby mouche » Thu Mar 05, 2020 8:13 pm

Six additional individuals died in Greece this week from the annual winter outbreak of influenza, raising the total number of fatalities this season to 83, Greece’s National Public Health Organization (EODY) said on Thursday, in its weekly updates on the situation.

NOT from Covid19 coronavirus!

mouche
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Re: Virus

Postby mouche » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:03 pm

Official figures just released in Norway confirm a total of 61.050 persons diagnosed with ("normal") flue sofar this season, a total of 2.300 persons hospitiaized (half of whom under the age of 60). And how many have been diagnosed with the Corona flu sofar world wide?

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Virus

Postby Kilkis » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:19 pm

About 80,000 confirmed cases in China with just under 3,000 deaths. A bit over 7,000 cases outside China with 104 deaths. The main centres outside China are South Korea, Italy and Iran. WHO figures for 1 March so presumably a bit higher now

The Chief Medical Officer in the UK appeared before a parliamentary select committee today. He said that he believed that the current estimates for the mortality rates for COVID-19 were an overestimate. Typically they are using the number of people diagnosed with it who have died divided by the number of people who have been diagnosed with it. The mortality rate should be the number of people diagnosed with it who have died divided by the number of people who have contracted it. A large number of people who have contracted it are completely asymptomatic or very slight symptoms, less than the common cold and so are never tested and never diagnosed to have it. I think the current test only really works well on people who are exhibiting symptoms so even if you tested everybody you wouldn't determine how many had contracted it. He believes that a mortality rate of 1 % is probably the upper limit and when all the facts are known it will prove to be less, moving it closer to the mortality rate of seasonal flue. On average over the last five years an average of 17,000 people per year have died due to seasonal flue in the UK.

The mortality rate does rise with age starting to rise above 50. This article shows a graph of the mortality rate by age bracket. Again they are probably overestimates for the same reason as above but may be more accurate for the oldest since fewer of them are likely to be asymptomatic. I prefer to turn it on its head and say even if you are over 80 and catch it you have an 85 % chance of surviving it. Not bad odds if you become ill with anything in your 80s. Younger people with underlying medical conditions, especially respiratory, cardiac and immune deficiency problems are also at higher risk.

Warwick

Carolina
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Re: Virus

Postby Carolina » Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:19 pm


Tim
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Re: Virus

Postby Tim » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:02 am

mouche wrote:Official figures just released in Norway confirm a total of 61.050 persons diagnosed with ("normal") flue sofar this season, a total of 2.300 persons hospitiaized (half of whom under the age of 60). And how many have been diagnosed with the Corona flu sofar world wide?


I think you miss the point, mouche. If 60,000 people go down with flu in a country, everybody shrugs and says it's winter, what do you expect? If 60,000 people go down with the relatively benign Corona virus, panic ensues, shop shelves are stripped and potentially law and order breaks down. I think that's the danger covid-19 represents.

Tim

Kilkis
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Re: Virus

Postby Kilkis » Fri Mar 06, 2020 12:26 am

I was told last Friday that there were three suspected cases at Chania hospital. Did anybody else hear that and does anybody know if they tested positive or negative? I haven't seen any published reports of cases in Chania, except the most recent one awaiting test results in the article linked by Carol.

Warwick

johnincrete
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Location: Chania

Re: Virus

Postby johnincrete » Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:13 am

Whether or not we as individuals are being exposed to the virus here in Chania, the advice concerning handwashing should be heeded and taught as normal to our children.

Firstly, applying a "hand cleaner" of the type seen in hospitals and freely available and used, is NOT as effective as simple washing the hands with soap and water. However, it is better than nothing when water washing is not practicable. Do not be deceived by companies who are in the business of selling preparations.

Secondly, germs are physically washed away in proper washing with soap and water and so the "quick wash" under a running tap that I for one was taught is not effective.

The best advice I have seen is that you should wash your hands for as long as it takes to sing "Happy Birthday to you" TWICE. The wash should include the back of the hands as well as fronts. And include fingernails (that should be kept short!) - maybe a "fashionable" lady who has long nails can comment here?

You should wash your hands at least 4 times a day and always before handling food.

And, of course, you defeat the object if you turn off the taps after washing without either washing the taps or using a tissue as a barrier. Taps with handles as levers help here.

I am sure that most of us have seen TV programmes where a surgeon washes before donning gloves. It is always long and vigorous. It's a clue!

IT is all about changing habits that have been wrongly taught.

mouche
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Re: Virus

Postby mouche » Fri Mar 06, 2020 8:22 am

Tim wrote:
mouche wrote:Official figures just released in Norway confirm a total of 61.050 persons diagnosed with ("normal") flue sofar this season, a total of 2.300 persons hospitiaized (half of whom under the age of 60). And how many have been diagnosed with the Corona flu sofar world wide?


I think you miss the point, mouche. If 60,000 people go down with flu in a country, everybody shrugs and says it's winter, what do you expect? If 60,000 people go down with the relatively benign Corona virus, panic ensues, shop shelves are stripped and potentially law and order breaks down. I think that's the danger covid-19 represents.

Tim


May I do, or maybe I do not. Facts are that on average a total of 900 persons dies in Norway every year (!) from the regular flue and nobody talks about it. A coupkle of years ago the number of deaths was 1.600. I do not quite understand the world wide panic right now.

Keltz
Posts: 161
Joined: Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:53 am

Re: Virus

Postby Keltz » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:00 am

mouche wrote:
Tim wrote:
mouche wrote:Official figures just released in Norway confirm a total of 61.050 persons diagnosed with ("normal") flue sofar this season, a total of 2.300 persons hospitiaized (half of whom under the age of 60). And how many have been diagnosed with the Corona flu sofar world wide?


I think you miss the point, mouche. If 60,000 people go down with flu in a country, everybody shrugs and says it's winter, what do you expect? If 60,000 people go down with the relatively benign Corona virus, panic ensues, shop shelves are stripped and potentially law and order breaks down. I think that's the danger covid-19 represents.

Tim


May I do, or maybe I do not. Facts are that on average a total of 900 persons dies in Norway every year (!) from the regular flue and nobody talks about it. A coupkle of years ago the number of deaths was 1.600. I do not quite understand the world wide panic right now.


According to the WHO website, "More than half of all deaths in low-income countries in 2016 were caused by the so-called “Group I” conditions, which include communicable diseases, maternal causes, conditions arising during pregnancy and childbirth, and nutritional deficiencies. By contrast, less than 7% of deaths in high-income countries were due to such causes."

Oxford Uni research revealed high probable cause of increased death rate in Austerity policy where Austerity, in simple terms, is for the poor not the rich. And this is happening while smoking and alcohol consumption has reduced significantly.
http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2017-02-20-300 ... cial-care#

George Monbiot has noted the recurring theme that: “BBC news values: Extreme scepticism towards stories that challenge the status quo. Naive receptivity to stories that defend it.”
https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2017/11/2 ... ic-murder/

This is not a new phenomenon it has been in the making for many years, so while we are now encouraged to focus on Covid-19, the likely increase in removal of rights of freedom of movement 'for our own good' will ignore that many many more people die across the world from communicating diseases like the flue, malaria as well as cancer, diabetes, suicide, motor vehicle accidents, yet it is only the fear of this 'unknown' new virus that we are told through the accepted media to worry about now.

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Virus

Postby Kilkis » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:21 am

johnincrete wrote:...Firstly, applying a "hand cleaner" of the type seen in hospitals and freely available and used, is NOT as effective as simple washing the hands with soap and water...


Not completely accurate, John. There are two basic types of hand cleaner: anti-bacterial and alcohol based. The anti-bacterial, as the name suggests, are effective against bacteria but not against viruses. The alcohol based ones are effective against both bacteria and viruses. That is why doctors and nurses swab the skin with alcohol before inserting a needle. Alcohol based hand washes are just as effective against COVID-19 as washing with soap and water.

I think the authorities are pushing the soap and water method for a number of reasons: 1 everybody has access to soap and water but people would have to go out and buy hand washes so the advice is less likely to be followed, 2 people will not really understand the difference between anti-bacterial and alcohol based so may buy and use the wrong one thus defeating the purpose, 3 they don't want everybody buying up all the alcohol based hand washes as it might make it difficult to acquire them for places where they are needed, 4 excessive use of alcohol based hand washes can cause minor dermatological problems..

Personally I think a good solution would be to buy a small portable bottle of the alcohol type hand wash and using it sparingly when out and about with no access to soap and water. Mostly use soap and water.

Warwick

Kilkis
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Location: Near Chania

Re: Virus

Postby Kilkis » Fri Mar 06, 2020 9:33 am

I think the print media simply run whichever story they think will sell the most papers, Keltz. "Three thousand imprisoned on cruise ship by killer virus" is a bigger seller than "Watch out, there's flue about". Broadcast media largely follow the print media. Mix in the fact that at the start this was a new virus so nobody knew what it would do and everybody has watched films like "Outbreak".

Largely governments are in a lose-lose situation. When there was a suspected case at Rethymnon university the authorities immediately closed the whole university. If they hadn't done and there had been a major spread amongst students they would have been criticised for not reacting fast enough. As it turns out the suspected patient tested negative so now they are criticised for overreacting. Hindsight is always 20:20.

Warwick

Jeffstclair
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Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2007 10:00 pm
Location: The centre of the universe

Re: Virus

Postby Jeffstclair » Fri Mar 06, 2020 10:24 am

Could you use Raki ..to de-virus your hands ?..I've got gallons of that ...

Mixos
Posts: 489
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2012 8:26 am
Location: North East Crete or S.W.England

Re: Virus

Postby Mixos » Fri Mar 06, 2020 11:16 am

Raki only works if it's above 40% proof, Jeff. Perhaps your is?!

Kilkis
Posts: 11623
Joined: Sat Apr 21, 2007 3:58 pm
Location: Near Chania

Re: Virus

Postby Kilkis » Fri Mar 06, 2020 2:31 pm

CDC recommend at least 60 % alcohol to be effective. I doubt if your Raki is that high. Woods Navy Rum is only 50 % and it is certainly stronger than any Raki that I have drunk. The fact that some Rakis rip your throat out doesn't necessarily mean that they are high in alcohol, they are just crap Raki. The Austrian Rum Stroh 60 or Stroh 80 would do the job and you certainly wouldn't want to drink it so you may as well use it as a hand sanitiser.

Warwick


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