Latest Covid stats for Crete

[DJ]

Does anyone know if updated virus stats for Crete are published anywhere ? I know there aren't many crystal balls around but what is the likelihood of Crete being taken off the UK quarantine list any time soon ? Grateful for views/information.

[Yin&Yang]

Check out Keeptalkinggreece.com if you haven’t already. It provides a daily Covid 19 report for Greece and breaks the cases down into areas.

[Kilkis]

In Keep Talking Greece there is a daily update on Corona cases. This the latest one. If you look down the article you will find a map of Greece showing ranges of cases using colour for each Nomos. Currently Chania is in the 0 to 4 range per 100,000 population in a 10 day period. A bit above the map you will find a geographical distribution of new cases recorded that day. If you keep tack of that every day you can do your own calculation.

According to my records there was 1 new case on 17 September, 0 on 18 September and there were 2 new cases on 19 September. There hasn't been any since in the Chania Nomos so that is 2 cases in the last 10 days. The 2011 census for Chania Nomos was 156,585 so I am using a divider of 1.6 which equates to 1.25 cases per 100,000 population in the last 10 days. If there are no new cases here in the next couple of days then that will fall to 0.

I don't think Lasithi have had a case since 11 September so they have been at 0 for some time now.

Either the government is lying to us and there are many more cases or the decision to include Chania in the midnight curfew but not Rethymnon, which is in the 5 to 9 category, is completely crazy.

I doubt if Crete will be taken off any embargo list in the near future because Heraklion is in the 10 to 49 category.

It would be pretty easy to track the daily numbers for each Nomos on Crete and create your own spreadsheet to calculate a whole of Crete figure. Personally I am only interested in what is happening in Chania because that influences my own decisions.

Warwick

[DJ]

Thanks so much YandY and Warwick - very helpful. I was rather hoping the UK might free Crete from their restrictions before I fly to Heraklion (onwards to Palekastro, Sitia) on October 11. Looks like I am going to have a huge shop for booze and food before we go to keep us going during quarantine !

[Maud]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

[Kilkis]

It sounds like you will be returning to the UK in about 1 month. With COVID anything can happen in a month. If you look back at their actions you soon realise that it is pretty easy to guess what they will do next, at least roughly if not in detail. This government does not do difficult. With every choice they have to make they take the course that is easiest for them.

Having an effective test-trace-isolate system is the best way to control the virus with the minimum economic damage. To do it is difficult so they use movement restriction measures instead even though they do more economic damage. They can implement a movement restriction simply by writing it down on a piece of paper and waving it around in parliament. Job done. Making test-trace-isolate work requires real effort by a large number of people doing real things and doing them all efficiently.

Take isolate for example. I watched Question Time where Alok Sharma was the Tory representative. When he was pressed on the isolate regime he simply kept repeating the government narrative of how many thousand people are currently self isolating. This is untrue. He was quoting the number of people who have been contacted and told to isolate but nobody has any idea how many are because nobody is checking on them. The government has carried out its own studies that tend to show between 10 % and 20 % actually do it properly. He must be aware of these studies. They had a small virtual audience and one of them said that she had just come back from holiday from a country not on the exempted list. She had presented her PLF on boarding and been told it would be checked again in the UK, she might be selected for testing and she would be given information on what to do. Nobody's PLF was checked in the UK. No passengers were selected for testing. Nobody was given any information what to do. She self isolated for 2 weeks during which time nobody contacted her to check if she was really self isolating.

The government has just increased the fines for not self isolating. If you ask the general public what will stop people breaking a regulation the vast majority will say increase the penalty. It is always the top issue in all law and order debates. If you ask a criminologist what will stop people breaking a regulation the vast majority will say increase the probability of getting caught. Increasing the probability of getting caught means massively increasing the checks being carried out and that is difficult. Increasing the fine is easy. Just write it down on a piece of paper and wave it about in parliament. It also has the advantage that a large number of people will agree that it is the best thing to do.

If you are wondering what the government might do to respond to a changing situation just think of what would be easiest and that is the most probable outcome.

Warwick

[BST]

I think they are keeping strict rules in Chania and Herakleion because it's where ferries from Athens arrive and planes... especially from Athens. If they are not going to lock down Athens, they need to impose restrictions on where they visit.
There is a FB page specifically about updates on Covid in Crete. Apparently there have been 560 cases on Crete since the start. If you are on FB you can have a good look
https://www.facebook.com/24401076001031 ... 034771385/

[DJ]

Thanks BST - have now 'liked' that site.

[Kilkis]

Probably "imposing strict rules" would be a better description than "keeping strict rules", BST. A friend asked at a taverna if the limit was 4 per table or 6 per table if they were family members. He answered that "Yes those are the rules but they are not being enforced in Chania; how many people do you want?"

Warwick

[BST]

Another study
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marlamilli ... udy-finds/

[IzzyWhizz]

Either the government is lying to us and there are many more cases or the decision to include Chania in the midnight curfew but not Rethymnon, which is in the 5 to 9 category, is completely crazy.

It would be pretty easy to track the daily numbers for each Nomos on Crete and create your own spreadsheet to calculate a whole of Crete figure. Personally I am only interested in what is happening in Chania because that influences my own decisions.

Warwick[/quote]


I've tried to do exactly that using the KTG daily figures. From 29.9.20 to 3.10.20 only Heraklion was listed as having new cases, and then only 9 in total but, based on these figures, I couldn't work out why Chania region has been "upgraded" to the 5-9 category. Imagine my surprise to read yesterday in Xaniotika Nea the following:

"With 39 new cases in four days, the total number of cases of coronavirus in Crete since the beginning of the pandemic reached 603, according to the Greek government's Covid-19 observatory. It is recalled that the relevant map had been updated again on the afternoon of Thursday 1 October with 99 new cases in the last fortnight. In particular, the cases on the island were 465 on 16 September, 564 on 1 October and 603 today 5 October."

The map is entitled ΓΕΟΓΡΑΦΙΚΗ ΚΑΤΑΝΟΜΗ, but try as I might I cannot find it on either the greek government's website or EODY's - any suggestions?

IzzyWhizz

[BST]

I can only think they are people caught at the airports??