The Will of the People

Temporary Forum - Please keep it CIVIL and ON TOPIC regarding updates/ news / concerns on British living / travelling in the EU.
Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:08 pm

There have been three cases where a member state held a referendum on a new treaty and rejected it. The treaty was then changed to allow that member state to opt out of the particular sections of the treaty that they objected to. A second referendum was then held and was passed. That is not quite the same as it is usually framed, i.e. keep asking them until they give the right answer. The three cases were Denmark on the Maastricht Treaty and Ireland on both the Nice Treaty and the Lisbon Treaty. There are other instances where member states, including the UK, have objected to particular provisions in a treaty without holding a referendum and have also been given derogations from those provisions in order to get them to support the treaty. I discussed some of them earlier in this thread. All the treaties have now been consolidated into two treaties, the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. If you read these treaties you can find all the derogations.

Warwick

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:57 pm

Somebody, I can't remember who, made an interesting comment during a TV interview today. They pointed out that the term "no-deal" is a bit of a misnomer. While it is true that at 23:01 on 29 March there would not be any deals in place but then you have to set about negotiating thousands of small independent individual deals to allow life to carry on as normal.

Warwick

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:54 pm

My guess for this week is:

Parliament will reject the Withdrawal Agreement

TMay, wanting to stay as pm, will ask for an extension to Article 50

The EU, not being vindictive or self-harming, will grant the extension

The shouting will have a green light to continue on into the summer.

scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:59 pm

Guy M wrote:My guess for this week is:

Parliament will reject the Withdrawal Agreement

TMay, wanting to stay as pm, will ask for an extension to Article 50

The EU, not being vindictive or self-harming, will grant the extension

The shouting will have a green light to continue on into the summer.
The EU not being vindictive might be a slight problem.
Men in suits will always make you pay.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:58 pm

The EU has a pragmatic problem. The UK decided to leave the EU on 29 March 2019. The EU has elections for its MEPs in May. Obviously if the UK has left it is no longer entitled to representation in the European Parliament so they have reallocated the UK seats between the 27 other member states. If the EU allows the UK to extend Article 50 beyond May 2019 it gets itself into a mess. Technically the UK would still be a member and so would be entitled to its seats but the EU doesn't want to fill those seats with UK MEPs only for them to leave a short time later. I think it is unlikely that they would want to grant an extension beyond May and it is nothing to do with being vindictive. No deal is not a problem since the UK will have gone. Withdrawing Article 50 is not a problem because then they just carry on as if nothing has happened. Anything except a short extension is a problem.

Warwick

Guy M
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Guy M » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:06 am

It will be an extension until mid summer - they’ll find a way.

And the EU is not vindictive, whatever people may imagine. The U.K. chose to leave the EU and can hardly complain if the EU then follows its rules - I think they have been remarkably patient with the disorganised, uncouth rabble in Westminster. In the eyes of the World, the EU may not be perfect but they look a lot better than the U.K.

scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:26 am

I do like how Europhiles stick up for the EU and portray it as fair, united in harmony, one big happy family it's almost like a Disney land. If people think the EU is not in the least vindictive and ruthless, ask the people of the very country you are living in their feelings.
Men in suits will always make you pay.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:37 am

Actually the EU in the form of the hated Commission were the ones who were the most supportive of Greece and always wanted to compromise. It was the Eurogroup, i.e. the finance ministers of the member states, especially Germany, who were vindictive. The ECB were also hard, because the Bundesbank always holds sway with the ECB. The IMF were hard because their rules oblige them to be. Nobody gets an easy ride with the IMF but even they opposed what Germany wanted to impose on Greece. The IMF also supplied a lot of the technical expertise, since their whole purpose in life is bailing out countries in financial difficulty, and they got all their estimates wrong. That was the group that decided to make an example of Greece not the EU as an organisation.

Warwick

Keltz
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Keltz » Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:42 am

scooby wrote:
Guy M wrote:My guess for this week is:

Parliament will reject the Withdrawal Agreement

TMay, wanting to stay as pm, will ask for an extension to Article 50

The EU, not being vindictive or self-harming, will grant the extension

The shouting will have a green light to continue on into the summer.
The EU not being vindictive might be a slight problem.


I would add a general election to that. I have heard it being reported that Lib Dem Jo Swinson and some Tory MPs are already out knocking on doors handing out leaflets. In Scotland the SNP are being smeared in the press ahead of a general election campaign to limit their popularity.

YoMo2
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby YoMo2 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:24 am

Kilkis wrote:Actually the EU in the form of the hated Commission were the ones who were the most supportive of Greece and always wanted to compromise. It was the Eurogroup, i.e. the finance ministers of the member states, especially Germany, who were vindictive. The ECB were also hard, because the Bundesbank always holds sway with the ECB. The IMF were hard because their rules oblige them to be. Nobody gets an easy ride with the IMF but even they opposed what Germany wanted to impose on Greece. The IMF also supplied a lot of the technical expertise, since their whole purpose in life is bailing out countries in financial difficulty, and they got all their estimates wrong. That was the group that decided to make an example of Greece not the EU as an organisation.

Warwick


So are you saying that an unelected group of finance ministers in a grouping that has no official status within the EU were not in any way under the control of the EU? Doesn't say much for the EU does it?

Andrew

scooby
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby scooby » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:31 am

Pasted from Wiki:
the Eurogroup does not publish minutes neither agenda documents from its meetings and its proceedings are vastly informal [23]
Conflict of interest of the chair of the Eurogroup[24] who both represents his or her own governments and the Eurogroup as a whole;
Domination by a restricted number of countries and/or the Troika [19]
Absence of accountability towards the European Parliament.

But the Eurogroup has nothing at all to to with the EU or the commission, probably the member states that belong to the Eurogroup have nothing to do with the EU, maybe the commission and the EU member states didn't create the Eurogroup, the commission's hands a clean of blood.
Men in suits will always make you pay.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:56 am

At one point in the negotiations with Varoufakis he was excluded from a Eurogroup meeting. He said that he wanted to mount a legal challenge to that exclusion because, as the finance minister for Greece, he was entitled to attend. He was told he couldn't mount a legal challenge because the Eurogroup has no legal status. It is not defined in any EU Treaty. It has no democratic accountability at all within the EU. It is not an EU institution. It is an ad-hoc construct of the Eurozone, which is not the whole EU. It is simply the finance ministers of each Eurozone member state and the head of the ECB acting to exert controls over Eurozone member states in order to protect the Euro. The Commission has a representative present who tries to steer the decisions to be in the interest of the EU as a whole but he is only one voice. The IMF is represented if the Eurogroup want the IMF to participate in some way, either with financial or technical help. It's decisions are dominated by Germany.

The words we use have to have specific well defined meaning or communication is chaos. If you want to talk about "the EU" you have to talk about the whole EU, it's rules and its institutions. If one or more EU member states carry out actions then they are the responsibility of those member states, not the EU. When the UK was fighting a cod war with Iceland would you describe it as the EEC fighting that war? The UK was an EEC member state. When French farmers tried to stop UK lamb being transported to France was it the EU trying to stop the transport? France is an EU member state. When some EU countries erect fences to stop migration would you describe it as the EU erecting those fences? They are all EU member states. Clearly some actions are the responsibility of the EU and some are the responsibility of a subset of EU member states. The actions of the Eurogroup fall into the latter category.

Warwick

Keltz
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Keltz » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:11 pm

Kilkis wrote:Clearly some actions are the responsibility of the EU and some are the responsibility of a subset of EU member states. Warwick


All countries in the EU are independent sovereign states that have ceeded part of their sovereignty to enable trade deals. There is nothing unusual about that as that is how trade deals work. The EU does go further and wants to go much further in political, social and military integration. That will only happen if the independent sovereign members of the EU agree. A point lost in the Brexit debate for internal political purposes and why celebration of having a blue passport is nonsense, not being able to deport a known terrorist from the UK because he had a cat is nonsense, not being able to stop anyone from the EU living in the UK and taking tax funded benefits without working is nonsense.

Accepted that the EU needs reforming, the problem we face is a UK problem not a EU problem. A great example is where Belgian delayed the signing of an EU trade deal with Canada because one of its regions refused to endorse the pact. In the UK every voting area in the country of Scotland voted in large numbers to remain in the EU yet are being told to leave without being involved in negotiations. Makes the European Union look decidedly democratic compared to the union of 4 nations that is the UK.

Kilkis
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Kilkis » Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:58 pm

The reality on benefits is very different from the perception on benefits:

    1 There is NO requirement in EU law to pay benefits to EU citizens in the first 3 months after they arrive. There is an explicit statement in the Directive that the UK does not need to do that.
    2 There is NO requirement in EU law to pay benefits to EU citizens who stay longer than 3 months if they are in the self supporting or student category. There is an explicit statement in the Directive that the UK does not need to do that.
    3 There is NO requirement in EU law to pay benefits to EU citizens who stay longer than 3 months if they are not in work. There is an explicit statement in the Directive that the UK does not need to do that. They are only allowed to stay beyond 3 months if they are seeking work and can show that there is a likelihood of them finding work.
    4 There IS a requirement to pay in-work benefits, e.g. tax credits, to EU workers in the UK under exactly the same conditions as UK workers. These are not really benefits at all. They are a way of subsidising UK industry without breaking EU law on subsidies.
    5 There IS a requirement to pay unemployment benefit to EU workers who are involuntarily unemployed once they have satisfied minimum contribution conditions.

Warwick

Keltz
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Re: The Will of the People

Postby Keltz » Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:52 pm

Verifiable facts are indeed of great importance as there is so much hidden by what is not said and click bait headline sound bites used to mislead. One example is the very heading of this excellent topic "The Will of the People". Used to great effect to imply the Brexit vote MUST be obeyed to respect the democratic process and ensure voters have confidence in parliament.

I hear very little said about the Brexit referendum being advisory only, as all UK referendums are, or that the 1979 referendum for devolution was won by 0.3% more than the Brexit result yet parliament refused to implement it.


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